Sunshine is the pits. (Phoenix, Tucson: sale, house, subdivisions)

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I don't know that the SW will take the water, but the future of water is that it is going to be traded world-wide as a commodity like oil. Water is considered the ultimate commodity because its use is not optional. Already, the big money guys are into buying water rights and there is a water index much like the Dow. The richest nations and the wealthiest areas will be able to afford water while the poorer ones will lose economic power and influence (and water).

Well, I was kidding, of course. To me the alleged water shortage is no different than any other fear-mongering.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

He-he, supply and demand, Plains10. Folks wanna live in the sun. If we happen to need more water, we'll just take it! Aren't we good Americans after all... Besides, pretty soon Michigan aint' gonna have any problems. Just like Comrade Stalin used to say - no man, no problem!

I know some people who think they really want to move to the desert, and then move back because they did not like the extreme intensity of the sun, and the lack of seasons. Hot or not as hot. Besides, their are plenty of areas in the Midwest that are doing fine economically besides Michigan. Minneapolis, Des Moines, Sioux Falls, Kansas City, and Indianapolis all have seen solid economic growth the past few years. Michigan has the worst economy of any state in the Midwest if not the US. If you want sun Sioux Falls and Kansas City have PLENTY of sunny days because they are closer to the central plains region.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

I don't know that the SW will take the water, but the future of water is that it is going to be traded world-wide as a commodity like oil. Water is considered the ultimate commodity because its use is not optional. Already, the big money guys are into buying water rights and there is a water index much like the Dow. The richest nations and the wealthiest areas will be able to afford water while the poorer ones will lose economic power and influence (and water).

And the joker in the deck is assuming that we keep having horrendous population growth--------which may not be the case anymore.

Many places have already achieved ZPG as it is-------and, many others are fast approaching that point. Mexico comes to mind (2.4 children per woman-----down from 5.7 back in 1975, replacement level is 2.1).

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

And the joker in the deck is assuming that we keep having horrendous population growth--------which may not be the case anymore.

Many places have already achieved ZPG as it is-------and, many others are fast approaching that point. Mexico comes to mind (2.4 children per woman-----down from 5.7 back in 1975, replacement level is 2.1).

Interesting how all these disasters started happening in the last few decades. Amazingly enough, Mother Nature had been perfectly capable of managing all of this on her own for eons.

Let's just check who says so:

Index - Pinsent Masons

Trade Research - Corruption Plays Role In World Water Shortage: UN

Global Water Shortage Looms In New Century

Oh, yeah, the wonderful folks at the World Bank and the UN. They can be trusted for sure. It's a gospel! Just as good as hearing it from our government. 'Nuff said.

Would you like to volunteer and give up your space on the face of the Earth, ArizonaBear? Make some room, huh...?! Somehow everybody who's concerned with overpopulation believes that somebody else must make room.

[odinloki1]

Yeah I guess you could say that Arizona has an alleged water shortage. I mean those fear mongerers are hiding all the water that used to run though the river near Casa Grande and the dried out Mormon Lake in Flagstaff. Not to mention all that snow we never see on the mountains only a week out of the year now. Not acknowledging a water shortage even a potential one that we face is incredibly irresponsible and shortsighted.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fdsfdg

The job growth isn't because we're "48% Mexicans", it's because the Midwest has crappy weather that everyone wants to escape.

The reason people are moving to AZ is for jobs. Places like MI and IA are suffering economically and strangely everyone is allured to Phoenix/Las Vegas/Florida/North Carolina that lives there. And "crappy weather"? haha Look no further than your summer. These people rush to the sunbelt looking for an easier winter, just to find out they have to deal with God-awful summers. And AZ? Talk about the most repetetive, hot, unforgiving weather in the USA... Also, places like Chicago, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Louisville, etc are growing (especially the burbs) quite rapidly and offer much more to do than Phoenix and also have a much more forgiving climate (you know, change of seasons, rain, some cloudy days, cooler summers, etc).

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by odinloki1

Yeah I guess you could say that Arizona has an alleged water shortage. I mean those fear mongerers are hiding all the water that used to run though the river near Casa Grande and the dried out Mormon Lake in Flagstaff. Not to mention all that snow we never see on the mountains only a week out of the year now. Not acknowledging a water shortage even a potential one that we face is incredibly irresponsible and shortsighted.

No problem. Everybody's entitled to his opinion.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by odinloki1

Yeah I guess you could say that Arizona has an alleged water shortage. I mean those fear mongerers are hiding all the water that used to run though the river near Casa Grande and the dried out Mormon Lake in Flagstaff. Not to mention all that snow we never see on the mountains only a week out of the year now. Not acknowledging a water shortage even a potential one that we face is incredibly irresponsible and shortsighted.

Actually I know about this having spent 35 years working in the water resources area as a student, researcher, groundwater geologist and engineer involved in design and operation of water resources projects throughout the southwest. What are your qualifications?

Anyway, Arizona does not have a water shortage per se with the possible exception of the Navajo nation. This state faces a good number of water resources challenges both engineering and political, particularly in areas like the Santa Cruz valley (Tucson) and in much of northern Arizona. For Northern Arizona it is a cost issue. Water is available for growth in Flagstaff but the cost of developing the supply is going to be very high. I would be most concerned about Tucson. The growth rate there (some argue even the current population) is not sustainable and Tucson continues to attract new residents. Conservation and re-use are mandatory. As I pointed out earlier, the Phoenix area has ample resources for projected growth for many decades. That does not mean Phoenix should be wasting water the way it is, just that water supply is not going to limit growth in the Phoenix metro area any time soon.

I always bristle at posts that accuse Arizona and the southwest of fiddling while Rome burns when it comes to water resources. This area is ground zero for water resources. The University of Arizona is the top university in the world in Hydrogeology. The region attracts the great minds and talent from around the globe in this field from water lawyers to engineers to geologists. We are not ignorant of the challenges we face and we are working hard here to ensure adequate water for now and the coming generations of Southwesterners.

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

We are not ignorant of the challenges we face and we are working hard here to ensure adequate water for now and the coming generations of Southwesterners.

I'm glad that a professional in the field is of this opinion. I wouldn't say there are no challenges in the desert (the place was not even meant to be populated, if you ask me.), but most likely not to the extend to warrant the spread paranoia.

Btw, Ponderosa, is it true that no development can be started without proof of sufficient water supply for at least 100 years. Read it somewhere, but don't know if it's true.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

I'm glad that a professional in the field is of this opinion. I wouldn't say there are no challenges in the desert (the place was not even meant to be populated, if you ask me.), but most likely not to the extend to warrant the spread paranoia.

Btw, Ponderosa, is it true that no development can be started without proof of sufficient water supply for at least 100 years. Read it somewhere, but don't know if it's true.

Yes - and no. Under the 1980 Groundwater Act subdivisions in AMAs (Active Management Areas) are required to show an "assured water suppy" which basically means, the water is available, it is of adequate quality, the delivery system is present and the water supplier is capable of delivering it. Recent changes in the rules have allowed renewable sources and recharge exchanges. The AMAs generally are the city/metro areas of AZ. I think a Pinal AMA was added this year, but I'm not sure on that or what its boundaries might be.

Outside of the AMAs, generally rural Arizona, the above rules do not apply. Here, subdividers are required to apply to the Department of Water Resources for a determination of "adequate" supply for 100 years. If ADWR gives it to them, all is good. If they don't, then they can still sell lots but they must disclose the lack of adequate supply in the public report. So, when buying land in Arizona ALWAYS check the public report. Many, many lots/tracts are for sale without adequate water supplies. I would be wary even if a piece of property is designated as adequate. The data are sparse and the methods used to determine adequacy are pretty low tech. Again, this is in rural non-AMA areas. You don't need to fret if buying a house in an urban area.

Arizona has a pretty good groundwater law, but some of the compromises in getting it passed left big and potentially dangerous holes in it. I don't think it is possible to get a perfect law, politically, so we will have to settle for the one we have and maybe amend it over time as conditions warrant.

Yes, "challenges" is an understatement. There are close to 20 million people in the west who depend on an over-allocated Colorado River and declining groundwater tables. Pray for rain!