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Old 10-18-2007, 09:12 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
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Dispite all the housing credit problems and decreased number of sales it appears that both the average and median home prices in Tucson were actually higher in Sept 2007 than in Sept 2006 (though the median price is down from Aug of 2007)

Here are the numbers that I found:

Sept 2006 Average Sale Price - $253,781
Aug 2007 Average Sale Price - $273,932
Sept 2007 Average Sale Price - $279,025

Sept 2006 Median Sale Price - $210,000
Aug 2007 Median Sale Price - $220,000
Sept 2007 Median Sale Price - $215,000

Sept 2006 Average Days on Market - 50
Aug 2007 Average Days on Market - 69
Sept 2007 Average Days on Market - 73

Sept 2006 Active Listings - 8,881
Aug 2007 Active Listingg - 8.954
Sept 2007 Active Listings - 9,190

This seems to be happening in spite of the fact that there are more houses on the market and they take longer to sell.

Not quite sure what that says except that it seems clear that there are fewer sales and they take longer to happen but the prices still seem to be generally going up.

Have to say I'm a bit surprised.

Ken
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Old 10-18-2007, 10:21 AM
 
Location: Southern Arizona
9,378 posts, read 26,581,901 times
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Definitely, Ken . . . VERY INTERESTING!
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:01 PM
 
Location: Tucson
42,837 posts, read 78,933,023 times
Reputation: 22814
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Dispite all the housing credit problems and decreased number of sales it appears that both the average and median home prices in Tucson were actually higher in Sept 2007 than in Sept 2006 (though the median price is down from Aug of 2007)

Here are the numbers that I found:

Sept 2006 Average Sale Price - $253,781
Aug 2007 Average Sale Price - $273,932
Sept 2007 Average Sale Price - $279,025

Sept 2006 Median Sale Price - $210,000
Aug 2007 Median Sale Price - $220,000
Sept 2007 Median Sale Price - $215,000

Sept 2006 Average Days on Market - 50
Aug 2007 Average Days on Market - 69
Sept 2007 Average Days on Market - 73

Sept 2006 Active Listings - 8,881
Aug 2007 Active Listingg - 8.954
Sept 2007 Active Listings - 9,190

This seems to be happening in spite of the fact that there are more houses on the market and they take longer to sell.

Not quite sure what that says except that it seems clear that there are fewer sales and they take longer to happen but the prices still seem to be generally going up.

Have to say I'm a bit surprised.

Ken
All it means is that more million+ and other expensive houses were sold. Of course, if you go to the realtors' sites, you'll find out that this cannot "possibly" be the case... Does anybody seriously think that so much fewer sales are a good sign?! Particularly last month the inventory in Tucson has been climbing like crazy again - Paper Economy - A Real Estate Bubble Blog (http://www.paperdinero.com/inventory.aspx - broken link)
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Old 10-18-2007, 01:51 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,745,128 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sierraAZ View Post


All it means is that more million+ and other expensive houses were sold.
Maybe, maybe not.

The Average can be pulled up by the sale of a handful of very expensive homes, but the Median Price is the point at which half the homes are selling for less than that price and half the homes are selling for more than that price. Must be a heck of a lot of millionaries buying homes then. Seems more likely to me that the typical price for a middle-class home is holding up or even climbing a bit.

Never said I thought it was a good sign the inventory levels were up (it obviously isn't) but I actually expected them to be higher, especially considering that it's taking so much longer for homes to sell. I mean, if it takes an extra month for the average home to sell, and you have let's say 500 homes entering the market every month, then obviously your inventory is going to be 500 homes higher simply because more homes are coming on the market in the time it takes for a home to be sold and leave the inventory. With all the bad news about the sub-prime mess etc, I'd really expected to see more of a flooding of the market with homes - which doesn't seem to be the case - at least not yet.

Just all pretty surprising, I think - and not nearly as much doom and gloom as I was expecting. I was thinking I'd see news about the average and median home price falling, not going up since last year.

Ken

PS - I think a lot of the local folks who post here are of the opinion that home prices in Tucson are WAY too high and thus a collapse in prices HAS to come. If I lived there I'd probably feel that way too because the recent runups in price would seem so out of line with what I was used to that I probably just couldn't fathom that prices could be sustained at that level.

The fact is, however, that for folks in some other parts of the country, Tucson prices are STILL a bargain. Median home price here in Seattle is over $400,000. I live in a 1,800 SQ 1950's era split entry home in a "not particularly great" part of the Seattle area (I'm near the airport and in the flight path) and similar houses around me are STILL selling for $325,000 or more. Median price of $215,000? Outside of condos, you can't hardly find a DUMP in Seattle for that price (even in the worse parts of town).

I'm not saying that Tucson home prices WON'T collapse, just that it hasn't seemed to have happened yet and MAY not. Even if prices do drop somewhat, I can't see them dropping too much -there are just way too many baby-boomers looking south - and those Tucson prices are still pretty low compared to what many of us are used to.

For what it's worth, that's my take.

Ken

Last edited by LordBalfor; 10-18-2007 at 02:08 PM..
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Tucson
42,837 posts, read 78,933,023 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
I'm not saying that Tucson home prices WON'T collapse, just that it hasn't seemed to have happened yet and MAY not. Even if prices do drop somewhat, I can't see them dropping too much -there are just way too many baby-boomers looking south - and those Tucson prices are still pretty low compared to what many of us are used to.
Well, I've said before that Tucson is in a better shape than Phoenix for two reasons: the percentage of "creative" loans was lower and the overbuilding wasn't quite as excessive. Right now the new construction has come almost to a screeching halt, which is hardly a sign of any recovery. The prices may not come down too much because Tucson is also known as a place where the homeowners have quite a bit of equity in their homes and maybe a lot of them can wait. Since I'm very interested in the subject at this time, I've personally seen quite a few houses that sold at '05 prices or even 20-30K less than what they were bought for. And I'm talking $ for $, not accounting for the raging inflation of the past few years. Also, Tucson made quite "fashionable" (late) appearance at the party. The official peak here was 2nd quarter of '06, which makes the development of events a bit delayed. Not that it has much of a bearing, but the wages here are quite disconnected from home prices, too.

Tucson housing still is less expensive by the standards of people from some other parts of the country, but these parts happen to be the exact ones where they can't sell their houses unless they're willing to take a big hit.

P.S. In many market certain areas (outskirts) are a lot more affected than others. I've seen stats by zip codes. They can be quite different.

Last edited by sierraAZ; 10-18-2007 at 02:14 PM.. Reason: addition
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Old 10-18-2007, 02:24 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,745,128 times
Reputation: 7167
No, you are right, many (not all though) of the places with the sky-high home prices are being hit pretty hard right now. But keep in mind that for folks that have owned their homes there for say 5 years or more, they can probably afford to (not that they's want to) take a 25-30% hit on their home price and STILL sell it for enough of a profit that they could buy an equally nice home in Tucson for cash (or pretty close to it). That's how high the prices are in SOME cities.

Until recently Seattle was pretty much unscathed but now prices have flattened and even fallen just a little bit. Overall though we're in very good shape up here.

When I used the web link you provided (thanks very much, by the way) and compared Seattle to Tucson, I got the following results:

Tucson Average: $400,000.00 - $450,000.00
Tucson Median: $250,000.00 - $275,000.00

Seattle Average: $650,000.00 - $700,000.00
Seattle Median: $450,000.00 - $500,000.00

Certainly I think bumpy times are ahead - just not sure HOW bumpy, or how long it will last. But then again if I knew that, I'd probably already be a millionaire (at least).

I do have to say that I tend to be pretty optimistic about the housing market in Tucson - certainly in the long run, and in the middle run too. Short, maybe quite so much, but not overly pessimistic either.

Of course I could be wrong.


Ken
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Old 10-18-2007, 03:26 PM
 
Location: Tucson
42,837 posts, read 78,933,023 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
No, you are right, many (not all though) of the places with the sky-high home prices are being hit pretty hard right now. But keep in mind that for folks that have owned their homes there for say 5 years or more, they can probably afford to (not that they's want to) take a 25-30% hit on their home price and STILL sell it for enough of a profit that they could buy an equally nice home in Tucson for cash (or pretty close to it). That's how high the prices are in SOME cities.
That's true.

Quote:
Certainly I think bumpy times are ahead - just not sure HOW bumpy, or how long it will last. But then again if I knew that, I'd probably already be a millionaire (at least).
Don't we all wanna know that?!

Quote:
I do have to say that I tend to be pretty optimistic about the housing market in Tucson - certainly in the long run, and in the middle run too.
I'd like that much more than you do, believe me! Otherwise I wouldn't be getting a new house right now and fretting over the decision...
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Old 10-19-2007, 11:56 AM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,745,128 times
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sierraAZ -

For what it's worth, I was just looking at available lots down in J-6 Ranchettes (where we bought our acre lot back in January) and the only 2 listings both had prices a LOT more than they were back in January.

We bought our acre for just a bit under $30,000 (which was about the going rate at the time). There's currently 2 lots for sale in J-6 Ranchettes (not to be confused with J-6 Ranch) - a 1.1 acre lot (exact same as ours) selling for $49,500 and a 1.5 acre lot selling for $45,000. Not sure if they'll get their asking price but I can tell you that of the several lots that HAD been listed down there in the $30,000 +- price range, they have all been sold.

So, the market doesn't seem too awfully bad at all (at least not for raw land, and not in the Benson area).

Sure glad we bought when we did.

I think you can probably sleep easy about your new purchase.

Ken
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Old 10-19-2007, 12:36 PM
 
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow!
430 posts, read 1,151,391 times
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My feeling in Tucson is that we are due for a "correction", most of our high driven pricing has come from investors from out of state and "flippers"....up to a year or two ago the median income family could qualify for a lower median priced home. That is no longer the case....another huge problem we have seen here over the course of a few years are all the apartments that were bought out by California investors that have gone "condo"....they have a direct affect on the market right now.

The small, lower/median priced home we are selling is up against 22 "apartments gone condo" just up the street! It is difficult to match what their pricing structure is, even though WE know they were apartments gone condo they still are affecting home pricing in our area......we laugh when someone buys one of them because you can put lipstick on a pig and it's STILL a pig!!

We've met people that bought one there and for 15,000 more they could of bought our house, with 9500 sq. ft of property with it! Their reasoning for buying the "condo"....."it was cute".....ok, to each his own, you don't own the property, there isn't any place to park your car that's covered, you have someone on each side of you, the "common" wall between you is a painted BLOCK wall. Plus the HOA fees are $200 a month on TOP of your mortgage/taxes/insurance! I just don't understand some folks!!

Anyway, Tucson is still holding it's own in the market and my home actually went UP in price from last month by about $3,500 dollars.......I'm not going to give it away, that's for sure...I'll board it up first.

O.Nana
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Old 10-19-2007, 12:54 PM
 
Location: SE Arizona - FINALLY! :D
19,868 posts, read 22,745,128 times
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Nana -

Your increase seems to go right along with what I've been reading.

Ken
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