Tucson 55+ Communities in 20 Years

[dirtydan57]

Originally Posted by tijlover

Now, in Japan, with its stubbornly low fertility rate of 1.2, and it stubborn resistance to immigrants, there's now 1 out of 7 homes vacant over there, having lost 1 million older people last year, with little to no replacements, I'd be viewing thing differently. Unfortunately, most of the homes being vacated are in the rural areas!

I sort of wonder if that won't happen here, too. My wife and I chose to not have children, but we're sort of outliers regarding that choice for my generation. But I am seeing more younger people not having kids, it's not at all uncommon. It could be come a real trend here.

[jertheber]

I've done some research into the question of projected retirement prosperity for the Gen-xer's, and it doesn't look like the trend of SW retirement living will continue for the fact of a large part of our current retirement benefit situation won't apply to them. Times are changing and the old pension crowd is dying off, leaving the money behind, and also leaving a much poorer bunch retiring in 2036 or so. Green Valley, Palm Springs, Yuma, and most of the SW, will most likely not have the draw it does today.

[dirtydan57]

However, the Census Bureau predicts a US population increase from 319 to 417 between 2014 and 2060 so it doesn't look like we're going to run out of people.

[tijlover]

Originally Posted by jertheber

I've done some research into the question of projected retirement prosperity for the Gen-xer's, and it doesn't look like the trend of SW retirement living will continue for the fact of a large part of our current retirement benefit situation won't apply to them. Times are changing and the old pension crowd is dying off, leaving the money behind, and also leaving a much poorer bunch retiring in 2036 or so. Green Valley, Palm Springs, Yuma, and most of the SW, will most likely not have the draw it does today.

It remains to be seen if the Gen-xer's will ever outgrow their love of an urban mass transit lifestyle sans automobile. And if not, places like Green Valley could become all-aged slums.

Before I moved to the Southwest 23 years ago, I led a very urban lifestyle in Minneapolis, and it's never gotten out of my blood, and it factors into my projected retirement move to Tucson. Being a convenience junkie, conveniences will be the deciding factor on where I'll live.

And I've done my research, there's areas of Tucson you can buy a single family home and have lots of conveniences within a mile of that house. Downtown Tucson has no interest for me.

I work with an ex-New Yorker here in Las Vegas, she bought a car when she relocated many years ago, the car went kaput, and she's been car-less eversince! She does rent a car from Enterprise once a month for a weekend.