Real Estate Crystal Ball 2019

[grmi66]

Originally Posted by grmi66

I'm simply basing this on what Zillow states is the value of our house in Tucson for what it's worth and what I see. Based on the fuzzy math of online estimators our house in NW Tucson has jumped up in value $31,000 since June of last year and we have one of the smaller houses in our subdivision. One house on our block sold at $260,000 in under a week, so now we have two similar houses on larger lots shooting for $290-$305,000 as a listing price.

Will be interesting to see how fast they sell or if they need to reduce the price at all.

Both houses on my block had offers on them in under a week. Essentially in a week the asking price for three homes with similar square footage and lot size jumped $40,000. Now it will be interesting to see how fast our neighbors decide to cash out once they find out what homes in our subdivision are getting. The one common thread to all of these houses is that the owners could sit on that asking price if they needed to. None of them was in a rush to move. We spoke to the agent for two of the houses and the only reason they went on the market is so the owners who were retired and in their 70's could downsize from a two story house to a one story house. Going up and down stairs was tough on the knees.

[steiconi]

Originally Posted by grmi66

I'm simply basing this on what Zillow states is the value of our house in Tucson for what it's worth and what I see. Based on the fuzzy math of online estimators our house in NW Tucson has jumped up in value $31,000 since June of last year and we have one of the smaller houses in our subdivision. One house on our block sold at $260,000 in under a week, so now we have two similar houses on larger lots shooting for $290-$305,000 as a listing price.

Will be interesting to see how fast they sell or if they need to reduce the price at all.

Zillow doesn't seem to be a reliable source for home values. We bought a house in January, and watched the Zestimate daily rollercoaster. Sometimes it gained or lost $30k overnight. At one point, it was estimated at $55k more than the listing price. I suspect zillow puts too much emphasis on the most recent comp instead of looking at the trend.

Today's zestimate is $40,000 more than we paid for the house. What a profit in less than 3 months!

[Mchrismsw]

Originally Posted by grmi66

I'm simply basing this on what Zillow states is the value of our house in Tucson for what it's worth and what I see. Based on the fuzzy math of online estimators our house in NW Tucson has jumped up in value $31,000 since June of last year and we have one of the smaller houses in our subdivision. One house on our block sold at $260,000 in under a week, so now we have two similar houses on larger lots shooting for $290-$305,000 as a listing price.

Will be interesting to see how fast they sell or if they need to reduce the price at all.

There is a bubble that will burst. It cyclical. But have no fear when it burst again, it will go down, reset and the rise again within at least 5 years. At the time the prices will be much higher than now. Up and down, up and down.

But if your an investor or just want to feel good about the equity in your home, then play the long game and don't worry. If your new potential buyer, I'd say rent, keep saving and wait a little until the market resets itself for some great deals. But I am not talking apocalyptic, like in 2008.

This is not really a prediction but an observation if you look at markets over the last 50 years. I am currently putting up my house for sale in SILICON VALLEY, it will go for at least 1 million, after paying off a small mortgage and capital gains tax, I might just head over seas. And buy on later on the dip in either Sarasota or Arizona, pay cash and call it a wrap. IMHO.

[grmi66]

If a bubble bursts, I think the dip in Arizona won't be much. Compared to any other large cities in the west both Phoenix and Tucson are the most affordable.

[49erfan916]

I dont think the bubble will burst as bad as a decade ago but we're going to see a slowdown by 2022.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

My parents moved to Surprise back in 2003. They sold a home in California that they paid $13,000 for back in 1965 for $338,000 and paid $132,000 for a brand new home in Surprise. They are still in that home after almost 16 years. Wow the time flies. Back then they were only the 3rd home built in the development. They watched as the other homes were completed. Since then most of the neighbors have come and gone.

California flight has happened for some time now. I know of a lot of families that moved to other places, Arizona being the main target.

[Tall Traveler]

Originally Posted by Mchrismsw

There is a bubble that will burst. It cyclical. But have no fear when it burst again, it will go down, reset and the rise again within at least 5 years. At the time the prices will be much higher than now. Up and down, up and down.

But if your an investor or just want to feel good about the equity in your home, then play the long game and don't worry. If your new potential buyer, I'd say rent, keep saving and wait a little until the market resets itself for some great deals. But I am not talking apocalyptic, like in 2008.

This is not really a prediction but an observation if you look at markets over the last 50 years. I am currently putting up my house for sale in SILICON VALLEY, it will go for at least 1 million, after paying off a small mortgage and capital gains tax, I might just head over seas. And buy on later on the dip in either Sarasota or Arizona, pay cash and call it a wrap. IMHO.

I think it would be smart to sell in SV because I think that is a housing bubble that is going to be painful when it bursts. But I don't think Tucson is in a housing bubble. I think it has some room to run up much more before there is another housing burst in Tucson.

[grmi66]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

California flight has happened for some time now. I know of a lot of families that moved to other places, Arizona being the main target.

People coming here from California is nothing new. What I'm noticing the last couple of years is how many people now work remotely and telecommute, so can live anywhere. The people that I knew moving here in the 90's and early 2000's either transferred to their employer's job site in Arizona or just got a new job. In my Phoenix neighborhood the last 3 years the number of people I ran into who telecommuted to their job in Silicon Valley or L.A. just skyrocketed.

My wife and I both telecommute and only have to appear at the office in Phoenix once a month. Ran into another person yesterday who recently moved to Tucson and she telecommutes as well. For people like us that have either a California salary or Phoenix salary (the pay differential for my wife's job is $3000 between Phoenix and Tucson) snapping up a house in a great subdivision in a nice part of town for $250,000-$300,000 is a no brainer.

At the open houses in my neighborhood this month I see more than a few cars with California plates.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by grmi66

People coming here from California is nothing new. What I'm noticing the last couple of years is how many people now work remotely and telecommute, so can live anywhere. The people that I knew moving here in the 90's and early 2000's either transferred to their employer's job site in Arizona or just got a new job. In my Phoenix neighborhood the last 3 years the number of people I ran into who telecommuted to their job in Silicon Valley or L.A. just skyrocketed.

My wife and I both telecommute and only have to appear at the office in Phoenix once a month. Ran into another person yesterday who recently moved to Tucson and she telecommutes as well. For people like us that have either a California salary or Phoenix salary (the pay differential for my wife's job is $3000 between Phoenix and Tucson) snapping up a house in a great subdivision in a nice part of town for $250,000-$300,000 is a no brainer.

At the open houses in my neighborhood this month I see more than a few cars with California plates.

My youngest sister and her husband moved to the area maybe five years ago. My sister originally moved with my parents in 2003 and lived with them for a few years before getting married. Her husband and her own rental homes in three states. They both telecommute and can live anywhere.

[corydon]

Just a question. So many are fleeing CA, but the prices are high.... So, there are people moving to CA.

I worked for a company in Corona, but after looking at homes for one afternoon I knew it was a nice town, but to expensive. I like to buy and pay for it.