Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Thanks for the input. I'll have to wait until the end of August to go out there and see for myself. You never can tell until you see it in person. If you're correct about prices, I'll simply rent. For me, it's how the math compares on renting vs buying.
I know that I can rent a property meeting all of my criteria for ~$1500/mo; the only way that I would buy is if I could find a comparable property for <$200K, as I do not think that home prices have finished declining in Tucson.
To me, the whole rent vs own debate simply boils down to the math.
For what it's worth, my mortgage is lower than your rent estimate (a little), and while we didn't buy at the peak, we didn't buy at the bottom either.
Thanks, all of that sounds reasonable. We are planning on getting a house with a pool also. With the current prices in Tucson, my wife and I look at a pool as almost a requirement. Going through the Tucson MLS, there are 68 houses between $129,900 and $200,000 that meet the following criteria:
Single family home, 3BR, 2BA, 1800+ SF, 2+ car garage, pool.
That's enough supply to find a house.
Overall, I think your biggest hang-up is going to be getting plus-1800SF AND a pool. When I was looking at listings in your target neighborhoods, I didn't even see that many with pools. But asking price and getting price aren't usually the same in this market, so I assume you're also looking at things slightly above your ceiling, too.
May I suggest you reading the inventory descriptions on this Website because they sometimes list the builder, so maybe a couple of the homes you're curious about are in here: Tucson Home Search Results
One in Eagle Pt. Estates (6225 S. Eagle's Roost) is by TJ Bednar. That company has a really good reputation from what I've heard. They do custom homes in NW.
Re other builders: When I purchased a home in NW a few years ago, my Realtor wouldn't even let me look at KB Homes. She maintained that the workmanship was very shoddy. I've been in a couple since then, and I see her point. I ended up buying a Pulte Home, which is nothing to write home about, but we haven't had any serious problems. Just the constantly annoying issues arising from crappy builder-grade fixtures (low-end appliances, bad faucets, cheap light fixtures, etc.) Nothing hugely expensive to fix/replace.
When I was house-hunting, I looked at several Richmond American homes that I really liked. Whether or not the buyer complaints about them are serious or not, I couldn't say. My niece worked for Lennar in Texas and she said they are about equal to my Pulte home in terms of general quality (reasonable basics, lack of attention to detail items). But I'd rather have that than granite counter tops and fancy moldings in shoddy construction.
In terms of math for a RE recovery in Tucson, I believe our fate depends on the health of the mid-range California market. The people who will buy in Tucson in the near future will be retirees. Most will want newer homes. While we are glutted with inventory right now, non-luxuryhome-building here came to a screeching halt -- not a slow-down -- awhile ago already. If the CA market recovers enough for middle-class boomers to sell their homes to get more for their money in Tucson (what fueled our boom in the first place), Tucson's not going to have a bottomless selection of homes for them to buy in the less-than-$300,000 category. And when developers and builders go back to work, they'll take care of the luxury market before they worry about what the common folk want. So if you're going to stay here for at least three years, my money's on you getting yours back if you stick to your $200,000 limit. Your biggest problem will be 85757 being in Tucson Unified School District.
For what it's worth, my mortgage is lower than your rent estimate (a little), and while we didn't buy at the peak, we didn't buy at the bottom either.
Mdtoaz, I retire this fall from the AF and we are moving to Tucson because my wife will have 42 months left until she can retire from the AF. We're going there with the assumption that we'll move after she retires.
We will be paying cash for a house in order to reduce ~5% overhead costs of all the fees associated with a mortgage. It will also allow us to sell the house quickly at a 'loss' if, as I expect, the market prices are lower than today. Depending on the house price, we could afford to see a ~10% annual decline in prices and still break even compared to renting. That's approximately equal to the price declines that Tucson housing has seen over the last four years.
My wife and I were looking for a house to rent in Tucson. I didn't consider buying a home until I saw the ask price on what looked like a decent house and did a few back of envelope calculations on buying vs renting. I was surprised to see that all but my worst forecasts made home buying a somewhat logical choice.
Overall, I think your biggest hang-up is going to be getting plus-1800SF AND a pool. When I was looking at listings in your target neighborhoods, I didn't even see that many with pools. But asking price and getting price aren't usually the same in this market, so I assume you're also looking at things slightly above your ceiling, too.
May I suggest you reading the inventory descriptions on this Website because they sometimes list the builder, so maybe a couple of the homes you're curious about are in here: Tucson Home Search Results
One in Eagle Pt. Estates (6225 S. Eagle's Roost) is by TJ Bednar. That company has a really good reputation from what I've heard. They do custom homes in NW.
Re other builders: When I purchased a home in NW a few years ago, my Realtor wouldn't even let me look at KB Homes. She maintained that the workmanship was very shoddy. I've been in a couple since then, and I see her point. I ended up buying a Pulte Home, which is nothing to write home about, but we haven't had any serious problems. Just the constantly annoying issues arising from crappy builder-grade fixtures (low-end appliances, bad faucets, cheap light fixtures, etc.) Nothing hugely expensive to fix/replace.
When I was house-hunting, I looked at several Richmond American homes that I really liked. Whether or not the buyer complaints about them are serious or not, I couldn't say. My niece worked for Lennar in Texas and she said they are about equal to my Pulte home in terms of general quality (reasonable basics, lack of attention to detail items). But I'd rather have that than granite counter tops and fancy moldings in shoddy construction.
In terms of math for a RE recovery in Tucson, I believe our fate depends on the health of the mid-range California market. The people who will buy in Tucson in the near future will be retirees. Most will want newer homes. While we are glutted with inventory right now, non-luxuryhome-building here came to a screeching halt -- not a slow-down -- awhile ago already. If the CA market recovers enough for middle-class boomers to sell their homes to get more for their money in Tucson (what fueled our boom in the first place), Tucson's not going to have a bottomless selection of homes for them to buy in the less-than-$300,000 category. And when developers and builders go back to work, they'll take care of the luxury market before they worry about what the common folk want. So if you're going to stay here for at least three years, my money's on you getting yours back if you stick to your $200,000 limit. Your biggest problem will be 85757 being in Tucson Unified School District.
In any case, best of luck to you.
Jukesgrrl, we're not locked into any particular area in Tucson. Other than what I specified above, we're going to make sure that we're not in a high crime neighborhood. My wife's job at Davis Monthan will have her traveling quite a bit so distance to the base isn't a critical factor.
It just happened that this area had several houses that looked interesting to us in our price range and the crime statistics didn't look bad.
Thanks for the website; I've been there before but didn't notice that they list the builder on some listings - I find that a handy feature. I agree with you on the quality of home construction.
During our time here in San Antonio, the first house that we rented was foreclosed on and we moved to a nicer house with a lower monthly rent. But where we really noticed a difference was in the utility bills and how rapidly the house cooled when we lowered the temperature. And we couldn't believe how quiet the dishwasher was.
Thanks for the retiree demographics. We've lived near Boca Raton FL and saw how it was mostly retirees from the NY/NJ area where the Gulf coast of FL had more midwestern retirees. It makes sense that Tucson sees CA retirees.
Thanks also for the school information; our kids are in college so it's not an issue.
But where we really noticed a difference was in the utility bills and how rapidly the house cooled when we lowered the temperature.
There really is a difference. I have a Pulte home. When I tell people what my electric bills amount to they think I lie... as if I have a reason to. My bills for a 1,448 sq.ft., 2-story!, all-electric house, with all appliances and a 2nd (old) fridge in the garage are about the same I was paying for a 980 sq.ft. apartment (without washer & dryer). Granted, I like it warm (but I pay for that in the winter), I don't have a pool, I don't own many gadgets, and I'm on a different rate because of the solar water heater and the fact the house is energy efficient (the term used in Tucson is TEP-guaranteed; that's not a huge difference, though - maybe 6 or 7 bucks a month). As a matter of fact, I have a saved image here of them I showed somebody who didn't believe before.
Thanks also for the school information; our kids are in college so it's not an issue.
I only mentioned the school issue because I understood you to say if you buy you would probably be selling after your wife retires. Even if you have no kids, school district is a BIG issue for re-sale value. I took a bath on a house in suburban Pittsburgh several years back because of the school district it was in. I bought, lived in, and refurbished, a lovely home in a convenient close-in neighborhood. I have no children -- in fact, children rarely cross my threshold -- so schools weren't a thing I gave a thought to when I purchased.
But in the short time I lived there, the school district had beaucoups, highly publicized problems (as TUSD has now). The bordering school districts were not facing the same issues, so every purchaser -- even people with no kids -- had the brains to head to those areas. I sold a couple of homes in the past that I made good money on -- but not that one. Every since then, I've been hyper-vigilant to the state of local public schools. If you won't be holding your house for very long, you need every aspect on your side to break even.
I only mentioned the school issue because I understood you to say if you buy you would probably be selling after your wife retires. Even if you have no kids, school district is a BIG issue for re-sale value. I took a bath on a house in suburban Pittsburgh several years back because of the school district it was in. I bought, lived in, and refurbished, a lovely home in a convenient close-in neighborhood. I have no children -- in fact, children rarely cross my threshold -- so schools weren't a thing I gave a thought to when I purchased.
But in the short time I lived there, the school district had beaucoups, highly publicized problems (as TUSD has now). The bordering school districts were not facing the same issues, so every purchaser -- even people with no kids -- had the brains to head to those areas. I sold a couple of homes in the past that I made good money on -- but not that one. Every since then, I've been hyper-vigilant to the state of local public schools. If you won't be holding your house for very long, you need every aspect on your side to break even.
Excellent point on how a school system effects home values.
I only mentioned the school issue because I understood you to say if you buy you would probably be selling after your wife retires. Even if you have no kids, school district is a BIG issue for re-sale value. I took a bath on a house in suburban Pittsburgh several years back because of the school district it was in. I bought, lived in, and refurbished, a lovely home in a convenient close-in neighborhood. I have no children -- in fact, children rarely cross my threshold -- so schools weren't a thing I gave a thought to when I purchased.
But in the short time I lived there, the school district had beaucoups, highly publicized problems (as TUSD has now). The bordering school districts were not facing the same issues, so every purchaser -- even people with no kids -- had the brains to head to those areas. I sold a couple of homes in the past that I made good money on -- but not that one. Every since then, I've been hyper-vigilant to the state of local public schools. If you won't be holding your house for very long, you need every aspect on your side to break even.
That used to be true here until very recently. It's the reason I dragged myself into Vail SD even though I don't have kids and the location is not that great for me. It's pretty, but it's far, and I was really pis*ed when open enrollment came around shortly after that. Not all parents would want to deal with driving their kids to schools in another district, but it's still an option for them and the boundaries of TUSD are not that far away, which made my sacrifice on this account useless!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
