Quote:
Originally Posted by Spazkat9696
I don't see them killing him off anytime soon either. Actually I see TWD as having a much longer than average run. I just wish they would have more shows per year!!!!!
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Even the most popular shows tend to start petering out around seasons 7 or 8.
Look at M*A*S*H, which was from a very different time.. But, it hit its peak (In terms of ratings) in season 5.. It 'held on' for another 6 seasons, without much dropoff, but, that was back in the day of 3 channels.
American Idol might be a good example.. Season 6 was the peak in terms of viewership with 37 million viewers (for the premier).. It's been a fast and steady decline since then, with season 13, this year, premiering with 15.19 million viewers.
Or Survivor.. It peaked with 29 million viewers for season 2.. Hung around the 20 million mark until season 10 (Which, they have 2 'seasons' per year, so.. A 'normal' show that would be season 5) and has dropped since then to right around the 10 million mark now.
NCIS is an oddity.. Its' just completed 10th season was the highest rated season of the show.
Production costs will likely be the driving factor with TWD. The SFX on it are a higher cost than the 'average' show.. But.. the cost of the actors is probably lower than average.. Pretty hard to force a contract renegotiation for more money when they can easily just say "eaten by walkers". So, that also backs up your thought of a longer than average run.
So far, the ratings for TWD are just up, up, up.. But, if you want to look for the first possible signs of a flatlining, which then leads to a decay.. this season is the first season to have any single episode have a rating lower than the highest rating in a previous season.
What I mean by that is.. Season 1's highest rated episode was #6 "TS-19" with 5.9 million viewers, season 2's lowest rated episode was #6 Secrets with 6.0 million viewers
Season 2's highest rated episode was #13 "Beside the Dying Fire" with 8.9 million, season 3's lowest was #6 "Hounded" with 9.0 million
Season 3's highest rated was #16 "Welcome to the Tombs" with 12.4 million, while season 4's lowest rated has been #7 "Dead Weight" with 11.2 million. In fact.. 4 episodes from season 4 have been lower than Season 3's highest rated episode.. #5, #6, #7 and #8 were all lower.
So.. Perhaps the beginning signs of flatlining of the ratings are starting to show. that being said.. Do the ratings take a quick and sudden dive, or the slow curve to death? I'd say no question there's 3 more years.. Up to and including season 7.. Past that.. Remains to be seen.
The quality of the show is also very much a concern.. I'm astounded that it's remained at a high quality.. Remember that Darabont was fired over disagreements with AMC over the direction and budget of the show.. Mazzara who took over, 'stepped down' after season 3 over disagreements over where the show should go.. And there's been, basically, entirely new writing staffs for each season.. Sooner or later.. that's going to catch up with them.