Who here watches deal or no deal? Lots of gamblers! (Lost, commercial)

[Need_affordable_home]

I watch it almost all the time, I try not to miss a showing! Saw todays show where this poor woman and her husband who works so hard won only $1000 She was a gambler and probably doesnt understand what money is like, she probably has no job and stays home all day as a housewife. She had a $140k offer which she refused Then she opened the $750k and the $1m and lost it all. Her last chance was $27k offer with $1, $1000 and $75k remaining, she still refused even though the bank was offering her more than the average! I feel sorry for her but I also realise she made a very poor choice, took a gambler's risk when she should not have because they are poor!

Ive seen many others get way too greedy and gamble, some got really lucky, others lost it all. If there is only one large amount remaining, you should not gamble or risk it all! I saw a lady with 3 cases, one had $500k, bank was offering like $145k and she lost it all!(got pocket change) Another example was a guy with 3 cases, one with $400k and he lost the 6 figure offer and won only $5000!(his case contained that) Most people in fact get too greedy and gamble/risk too much, some cry after they lose it all, others have too much luck and end with $200k to $300k. The safe middle road is $100k to $150k, if you end up with that kind of offer, dont refuse it!

[Need_affordable_home]

Im supprised no one replied, do you even watch the show? Was another one today and the same sad story. She started off good then opened four big cases! She got down to $500k, $100k and 4 small cases but refused the $77k offer. I was shocked! Her next case was $500k, bye bye money. When she had 4 left, the bank offered her $25k, her husband said omg take the deal but she refused and opened the $100k case and ended up with $500 of pocket change

[carlito]

carlito can't help but watch.

Howie is so cool and the people that are on there are a little weird, but that's what makes it fun.

I am waiting for someone to pick case #1, then pick all the other cases in order. Why do it random?

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by carlito

I am waiting for someone to pick case #1, then pick all the other cases in order. Why do it random?

One lady did that then chose 2,3,4,5,6,7 and the host laughed and said I call your strategy "counting" she changed her strategy after that. Another chose only even cases and only two big numbers were opened. Unfortunately her luck turned when she ran out of even cases and opened the odd ones, shoulda taken the banker's high offer by then!

[gizmo980]

I watch the show religiously (Tivo is wonderful, lol), and there are some very gutsy players!! Seems the draw of ONE MILLION is too strong, and people just aren't satisfied with a "lower" offer like $100K. I'm a longtime poker player myself, so I appreciate a gambler, but they just get stupid about it. If I were on that show I'd play the odds, and quit when only one big number was left (or 2-3 if you had that many cases to open). But who knows what would happen once I was actually there... greed might take over, and I'd end up with $500.

[Need_affordable_home]

I wont appear on deal or no deal as I am not gonna bother waiting 3 hours in line for a 30 second speech giving the reason why I should appear on the show, they turn down 95% of people and the 5% have to submit a long written story why they need the money, in a way its like a charity where if you dont get greedy and dont take risks, you have 75% chance of getting 6 figures and 90% chance of at least $50k. In fact ive seen very few people with such bad luck that they never got a bank offer of $50k or more.

One woman in particular opened most of the big cases early in the game so her offers were never high. When she had 8 cases left, only one amount was a big one(300k I think) and the bank's offer wasnt good, a little over $20k I believe, a little more than half the average(300k plus the small ones divide by 8) I probably wouldnt have taken that lowball offer either. Bad luck that she happened to open the $300k(75% chance that she WONT open it on this round) and she got pocket change. Ive only seen one other person with that bad luck. Everyone else had offers of over $50k but got too greedy.

A good rule is if theres only one big case and no safety net, like the next case down is a $5000 case or smaller, take any reasonable bank offer(50 to 67% of average depending how bad you need the money) Say theres a $500k case and no other case exceeding $5000. If theres 8 cases left, average would be about $63k, the bank would probably offer somewhere between $32k to $40k which I think its fair even though its well below the average, the bank knows you have no safety net and is being merciful. Most people wouldnt take the deal and risk a 25% chance of getting pocket change. If they keep the $500k in play, the average increases to about $83k and the bank's offer becomes slightly more generous in respect to the average. Expect $45k to $60k offer. This is why most people take the risk, they are risking a 25% chance to lose $32k-$40k but a 75% chance to get 1.5 times higher offer. This means the odds are still in your favor if you play by the averages.

Ive seen it fairly often where there was 8 cases left, 2 big ones and you open 2 cases. One lady opened both big cases and won small money. Most people open one or no big case. Im not sure on the odds of both big ones being open but I know its 1:8 then 1:7, pretty small. I do know that you have a 25% chance of opening a big one on your first pick(2 out of 8)
Your offer will drop somewhat if you open one big one(more so if its the bigger of the two) Then at this point you might as well take the deal. Ive seen many people play on and on with only one remaining case. If theres 6 cases and only 1 big one and you open 3 more, theres a 50% chance of ending with pocket change or a big offer. Naturally, half the people ive seen walk away with small money, they cry when they get home

[bmurphy]

Originally Posted by Need_affordable_home

I wont appear on deal or no deal as I am not gonna bother waiting 3 hours in line for a 30 second speech giving the reason why I should appear on the show, they turn down 95% of people and the 5% have to submit a long written story why they need the money, in a way its like a charity where if you dont get greedy and dont take risks, you have 75% chance of getting 6 figures and 90% chance of at least $50k. In fact ive seen very few people with such bad luck that they never got a bank offer of $50k or more.

One woman in particular opened most of the big cases early in the game so her offers were never high. When she had 8 cases left, only one amount was a big one(300k I think) and the bank's offer wasnt good, a little over $20k I believe, a little more than half the average(300k plus the small ones divide by 8) I probably wouldnt have taken that lowball offer either. Bad luck that she happened to open the $300k(75% chance that she WONT open it on this round) and she got pocket change. Ive only seen one other person with that bad luck. Everyone else had offers of over $50k but got too greedy.

A good rule is if theres only one big case and no safety net, like the next case down is a $5000 case or smaller, take any reasonable bank offer(50 to 67% of average depending how bad you need the money) Say theres a $500k case and no other case exceeding $5000. If theres 8 cases left, average would be about $63k, the bank would probably offer somewhere between $32k to $40k which I think its fair even though its well below the average, the bank knows you have no safety net and is being merciful. Most people wouldnt take the deal and risk a 25% chance of getting pocket change. If they keep the $500k in play, the average increases to about $83k and the bank's offer becomes slightly more generous in respect to the average. Expect $45k to $60k offer. This is why most people take the risk, they are risking a 25% chance to lose $32k-$40k but a 75% chance to get 1.5 times higher offer. This means the odds are still in your favor if you play by the averages.

Ive seen it fairly often where there was 8 cases left, 2 big ones and you open 2 cases. One lady opened both big cases and won small money. Most people open one or no big case. Im not sure on the odds of both big ones being open but I know its 1:8 then 1:7, pretty small. I do know that you have a 25% chance of opening a big one on your first pick(2 out of 8)
Your offer will drop somewhat if you open one big one(more so if its the bigger of the two) Then at this point you might as well take the deal. Ive seen many people play on and on with only one remaining case. If theres 6 cases and only 1 big one and you open 3 more, theres a 50% chance of ending with pocket change or a big offer. Naturally, half the people ive seen walk away with small money, they cry when they get home

I love Deal or No Deal. However, don't assume they're all getting greedy. They might have a very real need/use for the money, not just to buy a big house or whatever. That's not really "greed".

Most people call Deal contestants stupid, but I imagine if you were up there, you'd do just the same as most of them.

[DBNN]

This was weird. You know how the contestant picks their case first.
My husbands yells, to my son "Pick a number".
How many of us do this, right!
So, My son picks a number "It happens to be the same number as the contestant.
Second suitcase: My husband "yells to me, "Pick a suitcase" . I pick the same number too..
We are a family of 6 and All 6 of us picked the first 6 suit cases.
We were laughing and surprised. Then A Power ball commercial comes on ! The first one I have ever seen on tv.
We wrote the numbers down and played power ball for a few weeks in a row.........................Nothing!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Need_affordable_home]

LOL anyone turning down an offer like $83,000 makes me suspect their judgement and I can see greed in their eyes. Dont tell me you cant put $83,000 to good use.


Know whats weird? I was telling my parents "hope that contestant doesnt choose case 13 with $750k in it" and sure enough thats exactly what happens! I must play the lotto more often, maybe ill win!

[bmurphy]

Don't waste much for the lottery, dude. Lucky guesses to a TV on a game show is not the same thing. I've guessed right on Deal sometimes. Doesn't mean I suddenly think I'm a lottery-winning genius. There's a pretty high chance of guessing correctly on Deal or No Deal. At the worst, 1 in 26 chance that you'll guess right. Compare that to the lottery. Guessing right on Deal is NOT even close!

If you want to win money you might as well go to the casino. Obviously, you have a huge chance of leaving with something compared to the lottery.

Watch, you'll probably tell me how ridiculous and silly it is to blow money at a casino, right?

With your housing budget of $50k I wouldn't spend ANYTHING on the lottery. You need to worry about eating first.

Back on topic -- $83k is a lot, but it's pretty small compared to what you can win on that show. Most people want to win more then that. Like I said, what if the money isn't for what you think? Heck, they might use the money to aid their mother in life support or something. You never know, so I would stop calling it greed unless you know why they're gonna use it!

(BTW, if you actually pay attention to anything besides the money, they often state why they're wanting the money, and 90% of the time it's a pretty selfless reason)