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Old 07-15-2010, 02:25 PM
 
77 posts, read 290,261 times
Reputation: 62
I just called Governor Manchins office.

They said it looks like everything will be passed and he has clearance for special election, and the Governor will be announcing an interim senator tomorrow at noon

 
Old 07-15-2010, 02:29 PM
 
77 posts, read 290,261 times
Reputation: 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by Opyelie View Post
Well, there is one thing - if the standalone UE bill gets shot down NEITHER party comes up smelling of roses.

But without a viable third party that doesn't leave voters that care about UE extensions being passed a lot of choice come November.

This is exactly what the Republicans want.... disgruntled Democratic voters who dont vote or vote Republican. Unfortunately if Congress goes more Red come November, you can count on stunted advocacy for the unemployed in Congress. I am afraid the Republican strategy will work.

If you are unemployed you must go vote Democrat this November, even if it is the lesser of two evils.

Last edited by NYUI; 07-15-2010 at 02:55 PM..
 
Old 07-15-2010, 02:53 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,484 posts, read 7,838,766 times
Reputation: 2213
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYUI View Post
This is exactly what the Republicans want.... disgruntled Democratic voters who dont vote or vote Republican. Unfortunately if Congress goes more Red come November, you can count on stunted advocacy for the unemployed in Congress. I am afraid the Republican strategy will work.

If you are unemployed you must go to the vote Democrat this November, even if it is the lesser of two evils.
If you read the comments section of some of the articles on the unemployment extenions I have found, you'll see a lot of long-term unemployed Republicans finally disgusted with their party. I don't know how widespread that is, but I honestly think the "Red gain" is going to be smaller than predicted and not enough to flip the House or Senate (though I think the Senate will be nowhere near 60 anymore......I'm thinking like it will be low 50s Dem or 50 plus Crist winning in FL and then actually deciding to caucus with the Dems and surprise some people). The House will lose some Dem seats but I doubt the House will become majority Rep.

While I think there's some people for whom voting Republican will be against their own self-interest but will do so anyway, I think you're going to see a surprising number of Republican voters who actually will vote Democratic as the "lesser of 2 evils". Not enough so that Congress actually becomes more Democratic than now, and still some gains by the Republicans, but not as sharp as it may seems now.

Assuming the extension passes, what will be interesting is the election will be about 4 weeks before what could be the true end of the extensions, or maybe getting past the election (assuming it goes the way I predicted) will cause some movement in further extensions or finding some way (be it a Tier 5 or some new gov't program) to help the 99ers.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 02:57 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,814 posts, read 7,802,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OHGreat View Post
Seems strange but could be true that they still call it 4213 even though it really isn't as it was just a stand alone UI bill.
HR 4213 was never a stand-alone bill and is still not a stand-alone bill. Read the current text of the bill in THOMAS in the Library of Congress. The full history of the bill is also available there -- including all amendments: proposed, passed, defeated, and withdrawn.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 02:59 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,814 posts, read 7,802,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jznomoney View Post
Yea didn't no republicans vote for 4213? They only voted for 5618.
No vote has been taken on HR 5618 in the Senate. It was passed by the House.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,484 posts, read 7,838,766 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diorgirl View Post
HR 4213 was never a stand-alone bill and is still not a stand-alone bill. Read the current text of the bill in THOMAS in the Library of Congress. The full history of the bill is also available there -- including all amendments: proposed, passed, defeated, and withdrawn.
So Collins and Snowe actually voted for this? I wonder what made them change their mind? Does it still include the "aid to states"? I know even some Republican governors have clamored for that, so maybe that factored in......if I remember right they reduced the amount to like $16B from $24B and found offsets to "pay for that".
 
Old 07-15-2010, 03:03 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,814 posts, read 7,802,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frrrunkis! View Post
Yup, that was a standalone extension bill that fell a vote short because they didn't have Byrd's vote and Nelson joined the Republicans. Snowe and Collins have not (and likely will not) voted in favor of the bigger bill, only the standalone. They then broke for recess and we all began hoping that WV's Governor would seat someone immediately, so that they could get the 60th vote for that standalone bill on the 12th. Now we're still waiting.
That vote (#204) was not on a stand-alone bill. That vote was a procedural vote on cloture for HR 4213 -- not on the bill itself.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 03:05 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,814 posts, read 7,802,900 times
Reputation: 907
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
So Collins and Snowe actually voted for this? I wonder what made them change their mind? Does it still include the "aid to states"? I know even some Republican governors have clamored for that, so maybe that factored in......if I remember right they reduced the amount to like $16B from $24B and found offsets to "pay for that".
Collins and Snowe never voted for HR 4213; they voted on cloture. See post reprinted below...

Quote:
Originally Posted by diorgirl View Post
That vote (#204) was not on a stand-alone bill. That vote was a procedural vote on cloture for HR 4213 -- not on the bill itself.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 03:06 PM
 
Location: Live in NY State, (sometimes) work in CT
6,484 posts, read 7,838,766 times
Reputation: 2213
Quote:
Originally Posted by diorgirl View Post
That vote (#204) was not on a stand-alone bill. That vote was a procedural vote on cloture for HR 4213 -- not on the bill itself.
HMM, maybe they're against the bill but for closing debate on it......but that would be OK because once the cloture vote is passed it only requires a majority after that.

Speaking of which, one of many articles that have appeared in the last 15 minutes out there saying that a Byrd replacement (though he/she hasn't been named yet!) will be seated at 2:15pm on Tuesday with the cloture vote IMMEDIATELY after that:

Unemployment Extension Coming on Tuesday The Washington Independent

Cross your fingers! Maybe it will go as swift as the financial reform bill today.
 
Old 07-15-2010, 03:10 PM
 
Location: New Jersey
3,814 posts, read 7,802,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
HMM, maybe they're against the bill but for closing debate on it......but that would be OK because once the cloture vote is passed it only requires a majority after that.
Not true -- 60 votes are required to invoke cloture on a bill; and any bill that has had cloture invoked then requires 60 votes for passage after the cloture time limit on further debate expires.
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