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Well it seems the global banking group Citi doesn't share the SNP'S confidence in an independent Scottish economy either. They said that " In our view, it is astonishing that the Scottish goverment, in seeking independence, has reached this stage: Seeking a currency union without agreement with the rest of the UK and without a clear alternative plan"
The white paper was launched as the most thorough blueprint for independence in history. It turns out to be the longest suicide note in Scottish history.
Well it seems the global banking group Citi doesn't share the SNP'S confidence in an independent Scottish economy either. They said that " In our view, it is astonishing that the Scottish goverment, in seeking independence, has reached this stage: Seeking a currency union without agreement with the rest of the UK and without a clear alternative plan"
The white paper was launched as the most thorough blueprint for independence in history. It turns out to be the longest suicide note in Scottish history.
I thought that one of the more interesting passage in the Citi report was"
"And Citi analysts estimated the borrowing rate for an independent Scottish government would be around one-and-a-quarter percentage points higher than the UK level, although it could be more initially."
To put that in perspective .....
A rate rise of one percentage point would add £76.38 to the £648 monthly cost of a 25-year £150,000 repayment tracker mortgage with a rate of 2.17% (the average of the three current best buys), according to Moneysupermarket.com. A two percentage point rise would add £158 per month and if the mortgage rate rose by three percentage points to 5.17%, borrowers would face an extra £244 each month.
So, independence is going to cost ordinary Scots real money. But, it gets worse. If iScotland chooses to renege on their share of debt, there is likely to be a "default premium":
They said that while such a move "would probably cause a new Scottish government to acquire a default premium on future borrowing" it would also "cut Scotland's fiscal deficit by about 3% of GDP", bringing the deficit "below the UK level and give Scotland a low or zero initial debt ratio".
So, how much would a "default premium" cost ordinary people?
Well it seems the global banking group Citi doesn't share the SNP'S confidence in an independent Scottish economy either. They said that " In our view, it is astonishing that the Scottish goverment, in seeking independence, has reached this stage: Seeking a currency union without agreement with the rest of the UK and without a clear alternative plan"
The white paper was launched as the most thorough blueprint for independence in history. It turns out to be the longest suicide note in Scottish history.
I think a lot of people will get a shock at how close this will be - a lot of people are being convinced to lean towards a yes vote.
Paul ... that is not what the polls are showing (see my post #180). The problem for the Nationalists is that they have set out their case and they have nothing new to offer. Meanwhile, bit by bit, the pro-independence case is being demolished. The biggest blow by far is Westminster's refusal to enter a currency union and Salmond's inability to articulate a Plan B. But there are many other areas where voters are being asked to take a leap of faith without any substance to support that.
As ordinary people start to see that there may well be a real cost to independence in the form of higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc. etc., then I think you will see more 'undecided' voters going into the No camp than are going into the Yes camp.
The best chance for Nationalists is a low turnout similar to the Scottish Government elections. But, right now, the polls are suggesting a 60% - 40% result against independence.
Paul ... that is not what the polls are showing (see my post #180). The problem for the Nationalists is that they have set out their case and they have nothing new to offer. Meanwhile, bit by bit, the pro-independence case is being demolished. The biggest blow by far is Westminster's refusal to enter a currency union and Salmond's inability to articulate a Plan B. But there are many other areas where voters are being asked to take a leap of faith without any substance to support that.
As ordinary people start to see that there may well be a real cost to independence in the form of higher mortgage rates, higher prices, etc. etc., then I think you will see more 'undecided' voters going into the No camp than are going into the Yes camp.
The best chance for Nationalists is a low turnout similar to the Scottish Government elections. But, right now, the polls are suggesting a 60% - 40% result against independence.
All of the Yes people I've seen online are all claiming that everybody is 'bluffing' - Westminster, the banks, companies, gas companies. They've fooling themselves.
All of the Yes people I've seen online are all claiming that everybody is 'bluffing' - Westminster, the banks, companies, gas companies. They've fooling themselves.
The problem is not whether they are or are not bluffing (for the record, there is zero evidence that they are). The problem is that the Nationalists don't seem to have a response beyond accusations of 'bluffing', 'scaremongering' and 'bullying'. Which suggests that they really have not thought matters through.
The problem is not whether they are or are not bluffing (for the record, there is zero evidence that they are). The problem is that the Nationalists don't seem to have a response beyond accusations of 'bluffing', 'scaremongering' and 'bullying'. Which suggests that they really have not thought matters through.
Right. That is the only response they've got. Not having any Plan B's is a huge consideration.
Salmond continues to argue a best case scenario and will be up the creek if one of a number of factors goes against him, as is likely to be the case.
It's probably been mentioned already but a devolved Scotland would pretty much scupper any chances of Labour being in a position to win a Westminster election for many years to come.
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