Scottish Independence vote thread, post all SI comments in here (home, live)
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Neck and neck according to the polls, and could go either way. I would be sad to see Scotland go it's own way, but that is a matter for them. I don't believe it would be a financial catastrophe, but also don't believe the "everything will be better" argument put forward by Salmond. Once they sit around a table with rUK and the EU there will be a few difficult home truths for Scotland to accept.
Whatever the outcome, the devolution genie is well and truly out of the bottle for England, Wales, and NI. That has to be a positive.
The "NO" vote needs a better slogan or symbol. Notice that the eagle is looking toward the arrows and not the olive branches.
It worked during our Civil War.
I think it will be great if they do. Not that I can think of ways that it will benefit them, but because it will be a shining example of people peacefully breaking away from their country. It would be great if the people of eastern Ukraine could vote on whether they want to stay a part of Ukraine or join Russia. Many other examples.
Neck and neck according to the polls, and could go either way. I would be sad to see Scotland go it's own way, but that is a matter for them. I don't believe it would be a financial catastrophe, but also don't believe the "everything will be better" argument put forward by Salmond. Once they sit around a table with rUK and the EU there will be a few difficult home truths for Scotland to accept.
Whatever the outcome, the devolution genie is well and truly out of the bottle for England, Wales, and NI. That has to be a positive.
Unfortunately, the polls are a poor guide to what might happen because their methodology is designed for elections and not a referendum. Thus, when they take their sample of, say, 1000 voters, they 'weight' the results to take into account how respondents voted in the last election which was the Scottish Govt. election.
So, for example, if the poll population includes 32% of Conservative voters, they will adjust their responses to match the actual percentage Conservative vote in 2011 which was 16.6%. The problem with this is that 1) voting intentions may not be based on party affiliation and 2) in 2011, a large number of Labour supporters voted for the SNP. But we don't know if this was a one-off protest vote.
So, we don't know that the weighting methodology is valid for the referendum or whether it is actually underestimating one side or the other.
Another problem is the 'don't knows' or 'undecideds'. Given the passions that have been aroused and widespread reports of intimidation, many of the 'undecideds' may have already made their decision but are unwilling to divulge it.
Finally, there is concern that polling populations have been 'infiltrated'. We know that Panelbase was concerned enough about this risk to stop new signups. And we also know that well-known nationalist Joan MacAlpine was actively encouraging Yes supporters to sign up for ICM. So there is a possibility that polling populations are tainted.
My guess - and it is a guess - is that the NO vote is being underestimated.
There is good news and bad news. The good news is that a very large proportion of Scotland has been actively engaged in the process. The bad news is that Scots have been torn apart by the controversy and it is going to take some time for those rifts to heal. A close vote is the worst of all worlds because roughly half of Scots will be very unhappy no matter what the result.
Finally, and in my opinion, a Yes vote will be a financial catastrophe in the medium term. Flight of capital, drying up of liquidity and the loss of thousands of jobs will be enormously damaging. And while I live abroad for mopst of the year, I still own a property in Glasgow. I am very concerned as to what a Yes vote will do to the value of that property.
Good luck Scotland whatever the result. How many countries get to vote instead of having to go to war so very lucky that this is all done democratically. Very excited to hear what the outcome will be.
Good luck Scotland whatever the result. How many countries get to vote instead of having to go to war so very lucky that this is all done democratically. Very excited to hear what the outcome will be.
My thought exactly.It's just a very classy event,regardless of the result.
I agree with Jaggy, I think the NO vote is underestimated too. The last 24 hours have exposed the sort of intimidation, from the YES campaign that NO voters have had to put up with
One thing is for sure though, whether Scotland vote for or against independence it will be years before Scotland heals.
I agree with Jaggy, I think the NO vote is underestimated too. The last 24 hours have exposed the sort of intimidation, from the YES campaign that NO voters have had to put up with
One thing is for sure though, whether Scotland vote for or against independence it will be years before Scotland heals.
I don't think this sort of thing is damaging because it's not like these identity issues are not there in the first place. It is much better to have a democratic process like this than push things under the carpet. It will make people think about how they view themselves and what identity they want their children to have. It is all up to the Scots and no one can say ever again that they are unwilling participants of the UK if they vote no.
These things are much better out in the open and is an example to the rest of the world about how to do this.
It shows how robust democracy is in the UK. Let Russia and others take note about how democracy works.
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