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What happened? I was waiting with bated breath to hear from the doom and gloom merchants, amaroW and caribny, about the worlds economy in general and US, UK and EU in particular. It is almost 12:00 noon over here (US). Come on and get moving, without your expert advice I don't know what to buy or sell.
The thing is all we hear from the Brexit types is the typical British puffing out of your chests, which is just as amusing as when the French engage in similar behavior.
Arrogance not backed by reality, but of a nostalgia for a period long gone.
So what are your plans? Germany exports $127B to the USA, while the UK does a scant $51B.
Germany produces more products that the USA needs than does the UK, so rather than carrying on about now you can trade with which ever country you wish, ask yourselves why Germany was able to become a highly successful exporter, even though English, and not German, is the global language of commerce.
A better use of your time will be to lead a discussion about why Germany is immensely more successful in global trade, despite being as constrained by the EU as is the UK. And don't cry victim because the UK is the second largest economy within the EU, and is a large export market for the rest of the EU, therefore isn't some powerless little nation like Slovenia.
Whilst in terms of the Service Sector, Britiain is the second largest exporter of services in the world, and the sector is increasingly focused on exports. The service sector embraces everything from Finance, Trading, Investment Management through to Law, Accountacy, Advertising and Media through to Telecommunications and Computer Software through to Tourism, Hospitality and Entertainment through to Healthcare and Education etc etc
The Financial Sector in Britain employs over 2 million people alone, Britain owns vast telecommunication companies, whilst in terms of Law we are one of the great global centres with English Law being seen as Central to Global Business Laws. The same is true of every single service industry sector, and it has been suggested that stronger Future Economies will be service industry orientated, as manufacturing becomnes ever more automated and new technology such as 3D Printing comes to the fore.
In terms of what is manufactured, a high end product and a high end economy is far more desirable than a low end product even if it is massed produced by cheap labour. Indeed it is a high value-added economy that is sought and service industries are often at the forefront of this, and it has been suggested by economists that Germany will have to look to expand it's service sector for precisely this reason.
As for Economies with the exception of Germany, most EU Countries are going through far worse financial crisis than the UK, just look at the Eurozone countries econmies, the French, Italians, Spainish, Portugese, Greek, Cypriot, Finnish etc economies. The Eurozone itself is on the brink of collapse, and leaders such as Hollande and Merkel faced being ousted by more Right Wing Anti-European Parties and Politicians next year who will no doubt call for their own referendums. This is the stark reality of the situation.
And given that much of this service sector is oriented towards the EU we will see what happens. In fact its likely that the UK, being the bright spot within the EU, accounts for much of its success. But as it loses some of its market share in the EU some of this will migrate elsewhere within the EU. People are already checking to see if this is necessary and pitches are being made.
You all better work out good exit arrangements with the EU, because if you think that the rest of the world will offset this you dream. NOTHING prevents the UK from engaging with the rest of the world, because NOTHING prevents Germany from doing this!
So the UK will pretty much see status quo with the rest of the world, except that the rest of the world will now be able to export more to the UK.
In addition most of those service workers voted to remain. That doesn't deal with the Brexiters, most of whom aren't in this sector.
Now let us look at your 5 largest exports. Cars (mainly assembled I bet) refined petroleum, crude petroleum, pharmaceuticals and gas turbines. Not as high end a profile as that of Germany I bet. I see that 20% of the inputs into the car industry come from outside of the UK. So as the pound remains weak, and these inputs being more expensive how competitive will this industry be in export markets?
Rather then whining about the EU the UK needs to be asking itself why it is LESS successful than Germany!
Not sure how this will play out, but what happens to imports when every small town can have its own manufacturing base?
The trade deals that the UK will work out with China will see lower tariffs, and less regulations than that which obtains with exporting to the EU.
So if UK companies couldn't compete with China in the past (your steel industry as an example) then that isn't going to change now, that the UK will become an even more open market than it was under the EU.
It is apparent that the Brexiters fired their weapons but didn't aim, and are now worried that they might have shot themselves in the foot.
There is a wild card on the table - Donald Trump. I don't think it's likely at this point that he will become President, but it is possible, particularly if there is a terror attack within a few days of the election.
Donald Trump frequently flip flops on policy so is hard to predict. However, he is extremely negative about NAFTA. He rejects free trade and backs tariffs to protect American industry from what he calls unfair competition.
He also thinks NATO is obsolete, costs the U.S. a fortune and says other countries don't pay their fair share of the costs. He could threaten to pull out.
He also said this in May:
Quote:
Asked whether the United States needed to pay its debts in full, or whether he could negotiate a partial repayment, Mr. Trump told the cable network CNBC, "I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal."
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A better use of your time will be to lead a discussion about why Germany is immensely more successful in global trade, despite being as constrained by the EU as is the UK. And don't cry victim because the UK is the second largest economy within the EU, and is a large export market for the rest of the EU, therefore isn't some powerless little nation like Slovenia.
Nothing to discuss. Vee all know ze raeson is ve make gut product.
No reason why you would know that I am german. I am also very european. I have lived, worked and I have relatives and friends in seven european countries. None of them are perfect, but all of them have more positive than negative aspects.
I always react to posters who demean and downgrade other countries in comparison to their home country.
Quite simply it p----s me off. You have a nice day.
There is a wild card on the table - Donald Trump. I don't think it's likely at this point that he will become President, but it is possible, particularly if there is a terror attack within a few days of the election.
Donald Trump frequently flip flops on policy so is hard to predict. However, he is extremely negative about NAFTA. He rejects free trade and backs tariffs to protect American industry from what he calls unfair competition.
He also thinks NATO is obsolete, costs the U.S. a fortune and says other countries don't pay their fair share of the costs. He could threaten to pull out.
In other words, the U.K. may take on a world role that no one can quite envision as of now.
Another country heard from.
You think it is unlikely for Trump to become president. I hope you are wrong, the other choice is rather scary. We all know now that the country was not ready for a black (isn't he half white) president, and it is even less ready for this woman to become president.
Why would Trump's election cause the UK to take on what world role?
Why would Trump's election cause the UK to take on what world role?
Any response I make would reflect my strong bias against Donald Trump. This thread is not the place. I am not a fan of Hilary Clinton though. I don't think Americans have any good choice in November.
I will say this, there appears to be a mood of isolationism in the U.S.
Manufacturing is going to go through another revolution brought about by new automated technology and products like 3D Printers. I don't think anyone knows how this will play out.
Wait til 3D printers start having babies.......printing 3D printers..........
Any response I make would reflect my strong bias against Donald Trump. This thread is not the place. I am not a fan of Hilary Clinton though. I don't think Americans have any good choice in November.
I will say this, there appears to be a mood of isolationism in the U.S.
Appreciate your cautious and low key response. We will just wait and see who gets the most votes.
The people of the United Kingdom have exercised the sacred right of all free peoples. They have declared their independence from the European Union and have voted to reassert control over their own politics, borders and economy. A Trump Administration pledges to strengthen our ties with a free and independent Britain, deepening our bonds in commerce, culture and mutual defense. The whole world is more peaceful and stable when our two countries – and our two peoples – are united together, as they will be under a Trump Administration.
I'm not at all a fan, but he'd probably be better for the UK's economy than Hillary Clinton.
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