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Honestly I think by mid-century the Los Angeles area will surpass the New York area in population. You can give the credit to faster growth especially from immigration and the increasing prominence of the Pacific Rim.
Honestly I think by mid-century the Los Angeles area will surpass the New York area in population. You can give the credit to faster growth especially from immigration and the increasing prominence of the Pacific Rim.
CSA definitely I can see that. MSA maybe and I do mean MAYBE. City proper no, I don't see it happening in our lifetimes at least.
Yeah the CSA is what I'm talking about. Who even looks at city propers anymore ? LOLOL
I'm confident, very confident that the two CSA's will trade places in my lifetime.
Not saying I agree with you (or disagree for that matter) but if that were to happen, I wonder where the majority of the growth would occur - would it be through sprawling out in the Inland Empire or areas like the SGV and SFV becoming as dense and urban as Central/South/East LA? If it is a combination of the two (most likely), what would drive the growth more?
My guess is you would have a humongous area ( Central/South/East/West LA, SFV, SGV and Gateway Cities) that has densified and urbanized so much that it will have overall standard density approaching 10-12k ppsm. Talk about a never-ending city.
Not saying I agree with you (or disagree for that matter) but if that were to happen, I wonder where the majority of the growth would occur - would it be through sprawling out in the Inland Empire or areas like the SGV and SFV becoming as dense and urban as Central/South/East LA? If it is a combination of the two (most likely), what would drive the growth more?
My guess is you would have a humongous area ( Central/South/East/West LA, SFV, SGV and Gateway Cities) that has densified and urbanized so much that it will have overall standard density approaching 10-12k ppsm. Talk about a never-ending city.
The IE has been growing a lot in southwest San Bernardino County and western Riverside County. It's already countinuous buildup from Redlands all the way to Santa Monica along the 10 and 210 freeways.
Just stumbled across this thread while searching for a stat on the density of Koreatown. After reading a dozen or so pages, I have to ask: Who is BajanYankee, and why is he so butthurt about LA? I've never seen someone go to so much effort to prove that some place sucks.
For the record, I'm a Philly native, spent 10 years in DC, and now live in LA. I love it here. My wife and I have a car-lite household in Koreatown: she Metro's to work, and I bike. It's totally do-able here, as long as you don't live in one of the suburban nabes further out. I'll admit that the car we share is nice to have on the weekends for trips to the beach, mountains, desert, etc.
Yeah the CSA is what I'm talking about. Who even looks at city propers anymore ? LOLOL
I'm confident, very confident that the two CSA's will trade places in my lifetime.
They may or may not.
One thing to think about though is as the IE population increases and presses further from the LA MSA the number of commuters that cross the border need to be maintianed.
So lets say the IE adds 2 million; 1 million employed and only 80K of the new make the cross border to jobs in LA; the adds are at a commuter rate of 8%. At some point it could fall below the 15% required for connection; not saying it will but something to think as the place grows outward (regardless of consistency of development).
Not sure what the commuter rate is today as it must somewhere between 15 and 24.99% as 25+% creates the MSA connection
Also I need to verify but people from the IE that commute to the OC do not count toward this number as the other facet is core county of which I believe it is only LA county in the LA MSA; that is another dynamic as the rates (commuter) need to be achieved to core county
Without the core county requirement NYC and Philly would already have the CSA connection of their metros but never will connect as the core county requirment still is far short but both Burlington and Bucks meet the 15% into the NYC MSA (well this assumes that Mercer now at over 25% with NYC MSA will move form the NYC CSA to MSA with the 2010 realignment next year) Though unless the census drastically changes NYC and Philly will not join as a CSA for this same core county criteria.
So while LA may grow as a very uniformly developed place, maybe surpassing NYC in this regard it may actually fragment on census classification as it spreads if that makes sense, regardless of continuity of development.
Last edited by kidphilly; 05-17-2012 at 01:57 PM..
Yeah the CSA is what I'm talking about. Who even looks at city propers anymore ? LOLOL
I'm confident, very confident that the two CSA's will trade places in my lifetime.
I seriously doubt it, even if you predict for LA to have a higher future growth rate than NYC.
The problem is that NYC CSA is next to a ton of other metro areas, and LA CSA is basically surrounded by desert. So Hartford, Allentown, Scranton, Albany, etc. will all likely be added to NYC over the decades.
Then there's Philly and San Diego. Philly is twice the size of San Diego, and much closer to NYC than San Diego is to LA. So, even if these metros merge, it will happen much sooner with NYC, and the impact will be much bigger.
I seriously doubt it, even if you predict for LA to have a higher future growth rate than NYC.
The problem is that NYC CSA is next to a ton of other metro areas, and LA CSA is basically surrounded by desert. So Hartford, Allentown, Scranton, Albany, etc. will all likely be added to NYC over the decades.
Then there's Philly and San Diego. Philly is twice the size of San Diego, and much closer to NYC than San Diego is to LA. So, even if these metros merge, it will happen much sooner with NYC, and the impact will be much bigger.
Yeah I agree it would very difficult for LA to ever pass NYC. I find kidphilly's scenario of IE splitting from LA/OC more likely than SD and LA merging.
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