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I understand your predicament. I also agree that the corresponding market changes that will accompany $8/gallon gas would bring about a lot of the changes that people like me are looking for.
The question of desirability is one I grapple with. I'm thinking outrageously-priced fuel, more than we can even comprehend and I'm imagining an exurb, 50 miles from the nearest major employment center, and I see forlorn, abandonded McMansions, Pultes and Beezers and Ryans alike, their cheap vinyl siding flapping in the wind.
Whenever I'm in a corporate-built home I think to myself, wow, this house really doesn't feel like it's going to last 100 years or even 50. Maybe that's by design. How will they hold their value? Who is going to want to move to these places when they can't afford the commute?
I think our collective perception of just what is desirable is going to change, quicker in some than others. I think the middle-class people (all 54 of them left in the U.S.) who wait to abandon the two-car-garage, 7 bedroom, 8.75 bathroom house ideal of regular life are going to be the hardest hit. I guess they already are, actually.
Anyway, just my mind wandering a few decades into the future. Thanks for following.
OK, not to imply that massive energy-sucking McMansions are a good idea (they aren't) - but - you need to back up from the apocalyptic scenarios just a touch. Personal transportation isn't going anywhere. We're entering a transition era regarding fuel types but there is life after light sweet crude. At current crude prices there are massive heavy crude/oil sands/shale oil deposits which can be economically produced. Not the most environmentally responsible solution but they are there. And, more to the point, a lot of them are here, usa, not halfway across the globe.
The Nissan Leaf, which is essentially the Model-T of electrics, gets about 3 miles to the KW. Where I live if you compared that to a gasoline engine spec'd at 30 mpg that's a fuel equivalent cost of less than a dollar a gallon. I'm in the TVA system so for all practical purposed you'd be burning coal in your car. Again, not an environmentally ideal solution but I'd have to do a lot of math to determine whether obtaining your transportation energy from a well constructed, filtered and scrubbed coal fired plant is any worse than from an internal combustion engine. I suspect not.
The future? Who knows. There is a wide variety of potential technology being developed. It's as much random chance as anything else as to which one will come out on top. We survived the end of whale oil and prospered from the challenge. There is no reason to believe the end of petroleum will lead to the fall of civilization as we know it.
OK, not to imply that massive energy-sucking McMansions are a good idea (they aren't) - but - you need to back up from the apocalyptic scenarios just a touch. .
I was not envisioning a "The Road" type of world. Just merely questioning the shelf life of long-distance exurbs.
The one who wrote about someone living 22 miles from work only making $9 per hour. That person needs to get registered to vote and lobby politicians to get a transit line established. In the meantime get a good bicycle. Probably beats traffic in rush hour anyway.
The one who wrote about someone living 22 miles from work only making $9 per hour. That person needs to get registered to vote and lobby politicians to get a transit line established. In the meantime get a good bicycle. Probably beats traffic in rush hour anyway.
Not accessible by bike due to freeway-only access and natural boundaries.
OK, not to imply that massive energy-sucking McMansions are a good idea (they aren't) - but - you need to back up from the apocalyptic scenarios just a touch. Personal transportation isn't going anywhere. We're entering a transition era regarding fuel types but there is life after light sweet crude. At current crude prices there are massive heavy crude/oil sands/shale oil deposits which can be economically produced. Not the most environmentally responsible solution but they are there. And, more to the point, a lot of them are here, usa, not halfway across the globe.
The Nissan Leaf, which is essentially the Model-T of electrics, gets about 3 miles to the KW. Where I live if you compared that to a gasoline engine spec'd at 30 mpg that's a fuel equivalent cost of less than a dollar a gallon. I'm in the TVA system so for all practical purposed you'd be burning coal in your car. Again, not an environmentally ideal solution but I'd have to do a lot of math to determine whether obtaining your transportation energy from a well constructed, filtered and scrubbed coal fired plant is any worse than from an internal combustion engine. I suspect not.
The future? Who knows. There is a wide variety of potential technology being developed. It's as much random chance as anything else as to which one will come out on top. We survived the end of whale oil and prospered from the challenge. There is no reason to believe the end of petroleum will lead to the fall of civilization as we know it.
Oh boy.
When you are sucking oil out of sand or even drilling deep water deposits (the same time killing the environment) it becomes more expensive to produce than it's worth. The beginning of the downward slope.
Electric cars are going to be slow to pick up in the United States. Primarily due to stubborn people who don't want to pay the premium. This is not China where the govt can say (By 2013, every residential structure in Beijing will have 100% self sufficiency). This is the USA where people drive to Walmart to buy a pack of Oreos. Where people own homes a size 10x what they need.
Unregulated capitalism is the cause. Every system has it's cons and this is it. Infinite demand for finite resources.
Civilization will likely not end as a result of this, but your current lifestyle will. That is a guarantee.
When you are sucking oil out of sand or even drilling deep water deposits (the same time killing the environment) it becomes more expensive to produce than it's worth. The beginning of the downward slope.
Deep water drilling is still evolving so that's a moving target. Oil sands are profitable when crude is above $30-35 a barrel, Canada currently produces over a million barrels a day from them. Much of Venezuela's production is from ultra-heavy crudes. The current elevated prices of crude oil have several companies talking about oil shale extraction but they're still a bit nervous about making the capital investments. That is a sticking point. The last time there was a major oil shock based on supply and not speculation ('70s) so much new production was brought on-line that the price crashed to $10 a barrel. ('80s) You may not remember that but the CEOs do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by R3ALTAWK718
Electric cars are going to be slow to pick up in the United States.Primarily due to stubborn people who don't want to pay the premium.
Right. That would be why there's a waiting list for the Leaf over 50,000 people deep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by R3ALTAWK718
This is not China where the govt can say (By 2013, every residential structure in Beijing will have 100% self sufficiency). This is the USA where people drive to Walmart to buy a pack of Oreos. Where people own homes a size 10x what they need.
Unregulated capitalism is the cause. Every system has it's cons and this is it. Infinite demand for finite resources.
True. This is not China. We do not have a command economy. Therefore any significant changes will by necessity be driven by market forces and personal choices. Fear mongering will be about as constructive in the long term as commodities speculation and house flipping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by R3ALTAWK718
Civilization will likely not end as a result of this, but your current lifestyle will. That is a guarantee.
Strong words considering that you know nothing at all about my current lifestyle.
Deep water drilling is still evolving so that's a moving target. Oil sands are profitable when crude is above $30-35 a barrel, Canada currently produces over a million barrels a day from them. Much of Venezuela's production is from ultra-heavy crudes. The current elevated prices of crude oil have several companies talking about oil shale extraction but they're still a bit nervous about making the capital investments. That is a sticking point. The last time there was a major oil shock based on supply and not speculation ('70s) so much new production was brought on-line that the price crashed to $10 a barrel. ('80s) You may not remember that but the CEOs do.
The point is we are now using reserves (concentrations that are not easy to tap, therefor costly). The supply is on the decline while the demand is rising.
Quote:
Right. That would be why there's a waiting list for the Leaf over 50,000 people deep.
Compare that to all the Americans who already own or will buy a gasoline powered vehicle.
Quote:
True. This is not China. We do not have a command economy. Therefore any significant changes will by necessity be driven by market forces and personal choices. Fear mongering will be about as constructive in the long term as commodities speculation and house flipping.
People need to be informed for the good of all.
Quote:
Strong words considering that you know nothing at all about my current lifestyle.
Your right, I don't know how you live. I am not some green freak/tree hugger but I try to use less when I can. However, even I understand my lifestyle will be effected. Everyone will.
I don't understand why you are resisting. This is for the good of everyone. Especially our children. No matter how you look at it, if we do not change the way we live our children will not have the same opportunities we have today.
From reading wburg posts he/she ideal world would be to get rid of all the roads, cars, houses and everyone lives in an apartment and takes public transportation if you have to go somewhere. Public transportation works wonders by communing to work, taking Metro-North RR from my area to GCT/Manhattan. The bus (Coach USA/Short Line) sometimes can take the same amount of time as the train to my area during RUSH HOUR.
If I had to rely on buses and trains all the time I wouldn't get anything done. The New York City has the best transportation system in this country yet we have the longest commuting time in the country. Even L.A with all the traffic they have have shorter commutes than NYC???
wburg lives in an inner-city neighbourhood and loves it, which is ok. However, he fails to realize everyone doesn't share the same desire to live in a high-density area, so he twists facts around thinking someone is going to read one of his posts one day and think to himself, "you know, I really gotta move downtown." It doesn't work that way. I live in one of the highest density areas in Sacramento and the social issues are driving me nuts. The amount of assaults here is beyond comprehension. I've given up on the problem with homeless people pulling the trash out of the trash cans when they are looking for recyclables and leaving it on the sidewalk. The bottom of the front steps smell like urine from both homeless people and partygoers pissing along side it. I have one neighbour behind me who smokes pot on the back steps 24/7 and I have to smell it. The fence and gate are routinely kicked in by people who think they have a right to free access to private property. I love to grow vegetables, but it is pointless here as people steel them before they are ripe. Sure, there are places to walk to, but they are overpriced. Why am I going to pay $16 for the same dinner I can buy elsewhere for $10. I could go on about the nuisances, however, I'll end it with one of the primary reasons everyone isn't picking up and leaving the suburbs....is that they can't afford to live here. I'm finally at the point where I can afford to buy a small house...out there. Yes, I could afford a condo, but I want my own space. I want a backyard to garden in. No neighbours blaring rap music next door at 80 decibels, and no neighbours who cry because they hear me come home at 2:00 AM, hear me walking across the room, or any of the other things they obsess on.
However, I am all for public transit. Where I differ in opinion with wburg is he thinks people should be forced to use it, and refuses to acknowledge the reasons why more people don't use it. The social issues alone are a huge reason why many people will not set foot on a bus. Time is a factor for many people. Even if the traffic on the freeway makes for a long commute, it is still much more pleasant to listen to the stereo while you are waiting in traffic than deal with some thug trying to take your iPod from you on the bus. Until these issues are dealt with in a realistic way other than insisting people need to learn to tolerate inappropriate behaviour and long delays, getting people to use public transportation is going to be very difficult.
Cars will be with us forever; but the sooner we can get to all-electric cars the better, as this will keep suburbia viable.
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wburg lives in an inner-city neighbourhood and loves it, which is ok. However, he fails to realize everyone doesn't share the same desire to live in a high-density area, so he twists facts around thinking someone is going to read one of his posts one day and think to himself, "you know, I really gotta move downtown." It doesn't work that way. I live in one of the highest density areas in Sacramento and the social issues are driving me nuts. The amount of assaults here is beyond comprehension. I've given up on the problem with homeless people pulling the trash out of the trash cans when they are looking for recyclables and leaving it on the sidewalk. The bottom of the front steps smell like urine from both homeless people and partygoers pissing along side it. I have one neighbour behind me who smokes pot on the back steps 24/7 and I have to smell it. The fence and gate are routinely kicked in by people who think they have a right to free access to private property. I love to grow vegetables, but it is pointless here as people steel them before they are ripe. Sure, there are places to walk to, but they are overpriced. Why am I going to pay $16 for the same dinner I can buy elsewhere for $10. I could go on about the nuisances, however, I'll end it with one of the primary reasons everyone isn't picking up and leaving the suburbs....is that they can't afford to live here. I'm finally at the point where I can afford to buy a small house...out there. Yes, I could afford a condo, but I want my own space. I want a backyard to garden in. No neighbours blaring rap music next door at 80 decibels, and no neighbours who cry because they hear me come home at 2:00 AM, hear me walking across the room, or any of the other things they obsess on.
However, I am all for public transit. Where I differ in opinion with wburg is he thinks people should be forced to use it, and refuses to acknowledge the reasons why more people don't use it. The social issues alone are a huge reason why many people will not set foot on a bus. Time is a factor for many people. Even if the traffic on the freeway makes for a long commute, it is still much more pleasant to listen to the stereo while you are waiting in traffic than deal with some thug trying to take your iPod from you on the bus. Until these issues are dealt with in a realistic way other than insisting people need to learn to tolerate inappropriate behaviour and long delays, getting people to use public transportation is going to be very difficult.
Every time I see posts like yours, I think to myself how lucky I am to live in a place as nice as Youngstown, Ohio. In addition to not having bums urinating on my sidewalk and destroying my landscaping, our real estate is dirt cheap because it's hard to find a job, and we're FAR behind the curve on re-embracing the concept of urban living.
I can't speak for wburg. But what I think he/she is advocating is a more balanced transportation system. But the system is heavily stacked in favor of the automobile at the moment. In Ohio, for example, ODOT has just raised the funds allocated to mass-transit from +/-0.4% of their total budget, to +/-1.7%. ($10 million to $50 million)
No one wants to eliminate the car, and make everyone live in apartment buildings. But more people would choose to use mass-transit and live closer to their employer, if transportation systems were all on a level playing field.
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