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I only hope Americans will change if gas prices keep going up rather than saying oh whatever, I will still live here and drive. Anyone ever hear of the song "We aren't gonna take it anymore" ?
Ever read "The Population Bomb", or a dozen other apocolyptic prediction books about stuff tha never happened?
I'm actually not a fan of apocalyptic books or conspiracy theory books to be honest. I don't see "The End of Oil" as that type of book, as Roberts documents his extensive understanding of the "finite" resource and how difficult it will to be to get to remaining oil reserves (basically, we're running low on oil reserves that are easy to get to, and that are profitable...leaving us with more expensive and complex ventures that will increase incidents like the DeepWater Horizon Rig). He also talks about the difficulty of alternative fuels and why they haven't been adopted more in the past.
The main reason it's not an apocalyptic book, is because he discusses things that can and should be done in order to prepare our infrastructure for oil depletion.
I'm not saying there aren't issues with the book, but I believe that it's very well researched (I've read the critiques of the book, as I usually do).
As you and I appear to have different opinions on things, can I ask you to answer the following questions:
Do you believe oil will run out?
Probably. There may be a few new "discoveries", but of course, it's a finite resource, worse than wood as a fossil fuel in that respect.
Do you believe that if/when oil runs out, that the US will be prepared?
Probably. There is lots going on regarding alternative fuel sources for cars right now. Few people outside of the NE heat with oil, most heat with natural gas (also a finite source, I realize). I'm not a petroleum scientist. I don't know everything about this issue, and unlike many on CD, I try not to comment on issues I don't know about.
What do you believe the impact will be to the American public (e.g. you and me)?
We'll probably fuel our cars with something else, heat our homes with something else. Perhaps some alternative to the ubiquitous use of plastics will be developed. I don't think we're going to all crowd into warrens in the cities. There are lots of jobs in the burbs now, for one thing.
I don't mean these questions as an attack, I really just want to get your perspective.
1. Probably. There may be a few new "discoveries", but of course, it's a finite resource, worse than wood as a fossil fuel in that respect.
Do you believe that if/when oil runs out, that the US will be prepared?
2. Probably. There is lots going on regarding alternative fuel sources for cars right now. Few people outside of the NE heat with oil, most heat with natural gas (also a finite source, I realize). I'm not a petroleum scientist. I don't know everything about this issue, and unlike many on CD, I try not to comment on issues I don't know about.
What do you believe the impact will be to the American public (e.g. you and me)?
3. We'll probably fuel our cars with something else, heat our homes with something else. Perhaps some alternative to the ubiquitous use of plastics will be developed. I don't think we're going to all crowd into warrens in the cities. There are lots of jobs in the burbs now, for one thing.
1. I say it will definitely run out. I suppose the question is: how fast? I think this depends on how quickly we convert processes that have a large consumption of oil (e.g. vehicles with internal combustion engines, manufacturing that requires large amounts of oil, etc.), leaving less intensive oil consumption processes to dwindle on (assuming these would be less risky to modern life).
2. I agree with you on this. I think the question is: have we started to implement alternative energies early enough to not be dependent on oil in a fashion that causes chaos in our society? I don't know the answer here, and I don't believe even the experts know. However, I believe we need to move as quickly and aggressively as possible. I also believe that people need to understand where we truly stand with oil so that they can conserve and work toward a concerted effort to ensure our way of life is sustainable. Basically, I think it will take all of society to ensure we bridge to newer technologies.
3. I agree. I don't know that development patterns will change in the future...maybe, maybe not. I think it has potential to affect some people, but I certainly don't think suburbs are going anywhere. I think cities will be revived for many reasons (growth trends are apparent even now), but I'm not sure how oil will drive this. Mainly because savings in cost from being able to take public transportation (and walking to everything) will be offset by a higher COL, jobs in the burbs, etc.
My feeling is that we don't disagree too much, and I can understand your sentiments toward your choices (and why you may feel on the defensive on many of these threads), as I have my own (which others may disagree with). Thanks for entertaining my questions.
Americans would be so much better off if more people drove 30+ mpg cars rather than 12 mpg SUVs. SUVs are a status symbol though and most people will not give them up without a fight. I understand families need larger vehicles, but why not bring back the old 1980s style station wagon? I don't think suburbia is necessarily doomed...its just the vehicles we use to get there will have to change. Remember in 2008, when gas was $4/gal? Everybody was talking fuel economy and trading in their big SUVs for greener vehicles. Then oil crashed to $30/bbl and SUVs were back in style. Europe has had cars that get 40-50mpg for years...why don't we have them in the US?
Subaru has a diesel Forester that has an average combined rating of 35 mpg according to the reports I have read on-line. It also has 100 more ft/lbs of torque for towing and is a low emission vehicle. It was supposed to be brought to the US in 2010 (been in Europe and Asia for 2 yrs now). Now, according to Subaru people I have spoken to, it most likely won't be coming here. They claim Americans don't want diesels. Really? I personally know 2 other friends of mine that want to purchase this vehicle. This vehicle would realize a 50% improvement in mpg. Diesels also tend to last longer. The Subaru people said that they are planning on bringing a hybrid instead.
I would much rather pay the estimated $2k premium for the diesel and get a vehicle that will get 50% better mileage, have more towing capacity, and last longer than a hybrid which will also cost more and require $10k or more to replace the batteries after 100k.
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