Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I'm glad that the DC region is doing some things right, but self-congratulatory celebration of the "creative class" flocking to the area is more than enough to give one pause.
I generally follow the idea that things are never as bad as they look nor are they ever as good as they look. Triumphalism of any kind gives me a pause and that includes geographic triumphalism put forth by DC boosters. I think the metro-DC area has done very well, but as the saying goes past performance is not a guarantee of future performance.
You should perhaps address your complaints to S&P/Case-Shiller. It is they who rate the DC area #1. In his NYT op-ed, Richard Florida is attempting to illuminate some of the reasons he sees for the DC metro area's strong performance. That's not a triumphalism. It's plain old analysis. A string of homilies on the other hand is not.
Last edited by FindingZen; 06-06-2011 at 01:05 PM..
Reason: unrelated to Northern Virginia
I'm glad that the DC region is doing some things right, but self-congratulatory celebration of the "creative class" flocking to the area is more than enough to give one pause.
You should perhaps address your complaints to S&P/Case-Shiller. It is they who rate the DC area #1. In his NYT op-ed, Richard Florida is attempting to illuminate some of the reasons he sees for the DC metro area's strong performance. That's not a triumphalism. It's plain old analysis. A string of homilies on the other hand is not.
And how long has DC been "#1"? Triumphalism is foolishly imagining a temporary situation to be permanent. I think the recent economic success of this area has been a combination of many factors, including good fortune, rather than deliberate and sustained planning and development by local stakeholders in cultivating the so-called creative class. I see zero evidence for that. In fact, I've seen these exact claims elsewhere (most notably San Francisco and Seattle) right before the areas plunged into a recession.
Look, I am not suggesting this area is a bad place to live. Of course I like the area (but NOT for the reasons you or Florida elaborated -- it's like we live in different worlds). But this kind of unthinking triumphalism based on pseudo- and pop-science rather than the cold, hard facts and evidence lead to unwarranted beliefs that mask an area's flaws that may lay the foundation of a future downfall.
Last edited by FindingZen; 06-06-2011 at 01:06 PM..
Reason: unrelated to Northern Virginia
The main point of his article is to explain why DC area real estate prices have performed better than any other area of the country. He offers some reasons why prices here are relatively high but nothing that explains why this region has uniquely done so much better than others.
The reasons he provides:
1. Are not especially unique to this region.
2. Do not address any unique reasons why real estate here has gained more value since 2000 or recovered better from the downturn.
So what is unique about this region?
1. It contains the nation's capital and arguably the most important city in the world.
2. It has a combination of relatively low unemployment and a good supply of fairly high paying professional jobs. This relatively stable employment picture, with a foundation consisting of relatively secure and well paying jobs supported by government spending (not just government or contractor jobs), is crucial to the relative success of the real estate market here compared to other areas. It provides a continuing flow of people who can both afford to buy and are psychologically comfortable making that commitment because they are not seriously worried about losing their income or needing to relocate soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista
He argues that "D.C.’s housing prices are holding up so well because it’s a place with a vibrant and diverse economy, where talented people with options want – and can afford to – live." True, the second dash is in the wrong place, but otherwise, I don't see too many problems with it.
This is not unique to this area. It may explain why real estate here (or in NY for that matter) is relatively expensive. It does not explain why real estate in this region has performed so much better relative to anywhere else in the country, both since 2000 and bouncing back from the bust.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista
What ARE some of these places? Where do these comparables come out on the Case-Shiller index (an oft-quoted but otherwise not so hot estimate of what it is trying to measure)?
As he points out in the article, housing in the DC area is at "highest level by far of any of the 20 metros tracked" relative to prices in Jan 2000. He mentions the DC area has a score of 182 and that the national avg is 125. For comparison, Boston is at 147, SF is at 129, Seattle is at 132, and NY is at 165. Some of these areas have more restrictive zoning or geography than here which, all other things being equal, should drive them to outperform DC. There is something unique about the DC metro region that none of the others have which is creating this sizable gap in performance over both the boom and bust of the past 11.5 years, but he never really explains this unique factor in the article.
Quote:
Originally Posted by saganista
The only related point that Florida makes is that the DC real estate market has benefitted as well from there being here the sorts of residential opportunities that most appeal to the young and talented. He is not saying to build another Ballston because then lots of rich people will come flocking in and try to live there. He is saying that having a good supply of what the people you most want to attract will be looking for in terms of living attangements will help in keeping the flow of just such people running. And that in turn will help keep the local real estate market healthy.
His argument may hold some water in terms of explaining why some areas within the region are performing better than others, but not why people are moving to the DC area instead of somewhere else. These young and talented people are moving here for jobs. Especially in the last few years, people are choosing where to live based on where they have the best employment opportunities, not choosing some place they like and then finding a job there. Good, relatively stable, jobs are why the real estate market here is doing better than other areas which also have desirable living arrangements, well educated work forces, etc.
I'm struggling with that idea of a DC "creative class" too. I'd say we have a lot of well educated young workers but I don't see much of the "creative" as you do in places like San Francisco, New York, Seattle, or Portland. The young people are smart and educated worker drones, but they're still drones.
I'm struggling with that idea of a DC "creative class" too. I'd say we have a lot of well educated young workers but I don't see much of the "creative" as you do in places like San Francisco, New York, Seattle, or Portland. The young people are smart and educated worker drones, but they're still drones.
Look, Richard Florida is a franchise now, just like Jay Matthews.
What exactly do you think sells better and leads to more consulting gigs - "the rise of the creative class" or "the rise of the well-educated drones"? The "Challenge Index" or the "Force-Fed AP/IB Class Schedule Index"?
Time to get with the program. We are all exceptional and world-class here, even if occasionally a bit stressed.
Time to get with the program. We are all exceptional and world-class here, even if occasionally a bit stressed.
"When everyone's super, no one will be." -- Syndrome, "The Incredibles."
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
