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Development in the Pearl didn't peak until the mid-2000s after Portland Streetcar started--it functioned as a catalyst that sped up development, and also made the neighborhood a feasible place to live without a car.
Consumer choice matters, and it is often not objective, but ignore it at your own peril. It doesn't matter that buses and streetcars have functional similarities in terms of ability to move people--people like streetcars more, and the business community likes investing near streetcar lines but not bus routes. So you have some charts to show their similarities? So what! People like them better, so they'll ride a streetcar where they won't ride a bus, and invest in streetcar neighborhoods where they won't invest along a bus route. It doesn't matter if buses move people as well as streetcars, it's about whether people will get on the bus as readily as a streetcar. Generally, they don't.
The neighborhood was always feasible to live without a car, which is why more of the residents of the Pearl lived without cars prior to gentrification than after. Mostly that had to do with them being very poor and not being able to afford to own cars.
The pearl began to gentrify in the mid '80s. So it gentrified for a solid decade, decade and a half, before the streetcar went operational in 2001, redevelopment peaked prior to the real estate crash in 2006. That doesn't sound anything like a catalyst. Redevelopment of the Pearl District was already very much underway and had been increasing for years steadily prior to the streetcar. Fictitious number time:
Say development as measured by number of housing units completed had been increasing by 20% from 1990 to 2001. If they continued to increase by 20% from 2001 to 2006 when it peaked and began to decrease, the streetcar would have had no effect. Maybe, or maybe it continued the trend which otherwise would have peaked in 2002. Of course, maybe it shot up by 40% in 2002. But then maybe that coincided with a bunch of public-private projects where developer welfare was the catalyst and had nothing to do with the streetcar.
Since it's very difficult to say exactly what effect the streetcar has, proponents of choo choo trains will say all development is due to the choo choo train. Meanwhile the proponents of developer welfare will say it's all due to developer welfare. Meanwhile the proponents of arenas will say it's all because of Moda Center/Rose Garden. Obviously, they're all completely wrong and clueless since clearly if one is responsible for all the others are responsible for none. But that never will stop "arena math" or "choo choo math" or "redevelopment math."
There's a very specific demographic that is too good for buses. And while it's cool and all, I just don't see any reason to cater to their desire to have an urban toy when a bus works just as well. Now, if they want to pay for the urban toy themselves, I'm okay with that. Problem is they usually don't. Most of the money to operate the S.L.U.T. comes from King County Metro, although about half the construction costs were paid for with a special tax district so that's something. Also, local businesses like Amazon kick in millions of dollars to keep it running on top of the taxes they pay. If businesses and residents of the area chalk up enough of the money that it costs the same to run streetcars as it does buses, I'm completely fine with that. But then buses never really did have a whole lot of stigma in Seattle. It might make sense somewhere like South Lake Union that's really pushing the yuppie/urbanista lifestyle for the local landowner (Vulcan) to elect to tax itself to promote that image.
I can't speak about any other city but in DC, developers will only build density around rail transit in blighted areas. We already have good bus service across the whole city. The streetcar corridors are the only places where developers will get the rent and condo prices they desire. This is about getting the most profit possible which takes rail based transit of any kind. That's what this debate is about.
In a city like DC with one of the best rail networks in America, rail based transit corridors around metro, and in the future streetcars, can sustain an astronomical return on investment.
DC seems to have had a nice condo boom despite there not being any streetcar in DC.
Prior to the 1990s, wasn't the Pearl district an industrial zone? Breweries and railroad shops, with almost nobody actually living there. So there wasn't a need for any kind of transit, because people didn't live there?
DC seems to have had a nice condo boom despite there not being any streetcar in DC.
In blighted area's? Where? The streetcar development on H street is only because of the streetcar. The same thing is going to happen in Anacostia, Congress Heights, and Benning road.
Portland Streetcar opened about a decade after the Peal District was redeveloping. Same applies to Pearl as to South Lake Union.
The Pearl District began at about 2001, the Portland Streetcar opened in 2001. Almost all the development that has happened in the Pearl happened after 2001.
South Lake Union is in the process of seeing a redevelopment from what it use to be. The Streetcar was built in 2007, much of the development has happened at or after 2007.
The neighborhood was always feasible to live without a car, which is why more of the residents of the Pearl lived without cars prior to gentrification than after. Mostly that had to do with them being very poor and not being able to afford to own cars.
The pearl began to gentrify in the mid '80s. So it gentrified for a solid decade, decade and a half, before the streetcar went operational in 2001, redevelopment peaked prior to the real estate crash in 2006. That doesn't sound anything like a catalyst. Redevelopment of the Pearl District was already very much underway and had been increasing for years steadily prior to the streetcar. Fictitious number time:
Say development as measured by number of housing units completed had been increasing by 20% from 1990 to 2001. If they continued to increase by 20% from 2001 to 2006 when it peaked and began to decrease, the streetcar would have had no effect. Maybe, or maybe it continued the trend which otherwise would have peaked in 2002. Of course, maybe it shot up by 40% in 2002. But then maybe that coincided with a bunch of public-private projects where developer welfare was the catalyst and had nothing to do with the streetcar.
Since it's very difficult to say exactly what effect the streetcar has, proponents of choo choo trains will say all development is due to the choo choo train. Meanwhile the proponents of developer welfare will say it's all due to developer welfare. Meanwhile the proponents of arenas will say it's all because of Moda Center/Rose Garden. Obviously, they're all completely wrong and clueless since clearly if one is responsible for all the others are responsible for none. But that never will stop "arena math" or "choo choo math" or "redevelopment math."
There's a very specific demographic that is too good for buses. And while it's cool and all, I just don't see any reason to cater to their desire to have an urban toy when a bus works just as well. Now, if they want to pay for the urban toy themselves, I'm okay with that. Problem is they usually don't. Most of the money to operate the S.L.U.T. comes from King County Metro, although about half the construction costs were paid for with a special tax district so that's something. Also, local businesses like Amazon kick in millions of dollars to keep it running on top of the taxes they pay. If businesses and residents of the area chalk up enough of the money that it costs the same to run streetcars as it does buses, I'm completely fine with that. But then buses never really did have a whole lot of stigma in Seattle. It might make sense somewhere like South Lake Union that's really pushing the yuppie/urbanista lifestyle for the local landowner (Vulcan) to elect to tax itself to promote that image.
In the mid 80's there wasn't a Pearl District, so your statement is false. The area that is now the Pearl District was a dying rail and warehouse district up until the late 90s. The Lovejoy Viaduct wasn't even removed until 1999, once that happened, that was pretty much the beginning of the redevelopment of the Pearl District. Most of the new buildings have been built in the Pearl District after 2001.
Also it is cute that you like to call it a "choo choo train."
Pretty much every city started to see development in their downtowns increase in the 2000s though, regardless of whether they had a streetcar. Vancouver, Victoria, Halifax have no streetcar or LRT. Vancouver does have the Skytrain but not all of the core neighbourhoods that experienced redevelopment are served. Austin, Madison, Milwaukee, Nashville even Detroit have seen improvements in their downtown in the last decade and have no streetcar. Nashville's downtown might not be growing quite as fast as Portland's, but it's still growing a fair bit more (from what I could tell) than the downtown of nearby Memphis which does have a streetcar.
Pretty much every city started to see development in their downtowns increase in the 2000s though, regardless of whether they had a streetcar. Vancouver, Victoria, Halifax have no streetcar or LRT. Vancouver does have the Skytrain but not all of the core neighbourhoods that experienced redevelopment are served. Austin, Madison, Milwaukee, Nashville even Detroit have seen improvements in their downtown in the last decade and have no streetcar. Nashville's downtown might not be growing quite as fast as Portland's, but it's still growing a fair bit more (from what I could tell) than the downtown of nearby Memphis which does have a streetcar.
Not all streetcar lines are successful, they can be poorly done. In the case of Portland, it saw a lot of growth specifically around the streetcar line which was used when it came to promoting new development.
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