Would you say, as a whole, the United States is becoming less "autocentric" (young people driving less, owning cars)? (metro, suburban)

[Stumbler.]

I'm just wondering -- there are stats about how young people are driving less across the country (or fewer of them are owning cars) and using more types of alternative transportation.

Some people say that this is just temporary (due to the recession etc.) or a fad (for example some insist that these youngsters will turn to the typical suburban, two-car-owning family lifestyle after the generation settles), but others say that it is or might become a long-term trend.

What do you think? Do you think those stats about youngsters driving less and more of them owning fewer cars is any meaningful social trend that has any lasting power? Long-term social predictions are always a crap-shoot, but do you suppose this trend will influence much of our cities/urban lifestyle in the generation to come?

[Malloric]

Most of them will. Of course, marginal changes have a huge impact. There's less than 30,000 people in central Sacramento and 2 million in the metro area. If just half a percent decide they want to move to central area, that's an increase of 1/3 in population. Many, perhaps most, will chose to go to the suburbs but even a very small shift has pronounced effects. I think the shift is more pronounced than half a percent. And I think you're looking at something different than the anti-car contingent fantasizes about. A lot of people will move to suburban areas but to places where there is an emphasis on walkable neighborhoods. You have places like Mountain House, CA, on the one hand and places like Capitol Hill in Seattle on the other. Both show an interest in less automobile dependence, but are very, very different.

[wburg]

There is a difference with becoming less autocentric and being "anti-car." And I'm sure plenty of people assumed the automobile was just a fad too.

[cisco kid]

judging by the great success of carsharing companies such as zipcar, it looks like a long-term trend. people are tired of being debt slaves to the car companies and the banks who finance the loans.

[memph]

I think a lot of the change is occuring (and will continue to occur) for practical reasons, like increasing costs of gas or increasing traffic, and perhaps a decrease in prosperity. As a result of the changes in lifestyles though, neighbourhoods might be becoming less auto-centric, or neighbourhoods that are not auto-centric might be improving, making these lifestyles more attractive.

[pvande55]

Yes. More are using virtual travel instead of physically visiting. This reduces the amount of driving necessary. Even in the least walkable neighborhood. Of course denser neighborhoods reduce it still further.

[Huckleberry3911948]

no they are becoming broke and incapable of paying 4.25 a gallon for gas.

[uptown_urbanist]

I think the norm will continue to be for people to have cars and to prefer driving, but at the same time I think an increased focus on moving to non-car alternatives is here to stay. In years past fuel was cheap and plentiful, but I don't think there's any reason to think that cheap gas will be coming back anytime soon. Someone has already mentioned car share companies, and I think that, too, will continue to have a big impact; outside of a few major cities I doubt that the Zipcars of the world will lead vast numbers of people to live life without owning ANY cars (although they do make that option far more practical for far more people), but they may well have big value in helping households (as these young people start to get married and have kids) live with fewer cars, especially if car two or car three is just an "extra" car used only a few times each week. Biking also seems to be rapidly increasing in popularity, and I doubt that will change drastically, either, especially as infrastructure goes into place to make it safer and easier. Not that everyone will be jumping on the "ride your bike to work" train (er, bike ride), but there's been a great push for more people to walk or bike for short trips in their neighborhood.

In short, even if many of these young people end up becoming two-car families in the 'burbs, I still think odds are that, for many of them, they will still drive fewer miles than the past generation. They'll make more trips by foot or bike, encouraged by both the financial and the health benefits of getting out of the car (and aided by the fact that more and more communities across the country are working to retrofit their roads to make them more inclusive and welcoming to those not in cars).

Plenty of people will still drive everywhere and anywhere, of course; lots of young people will still live in places where it's not practical or not safe to walk or bike, and I'm sure there will still be plenty of people who simply prefer to drive, no matter what the costs. But yes, I do think that more young people will be taking more trips using non-car alternatives, and perhaps a larger percentage (although probably still small) will make the leap and not have a car at all.

[Drover]

The cost of car ownership has never been higher. If gas were still a buck a gallon and the regulatory environment weren't driving the price of cars skyward, I doubt we'd be having this discussion.

[Ohiogirl81]

I don't know any folks under the age of 90 who've given up their cars. I do know people who don't drive as much.