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Old 02-22-2013, 09:51 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 873,136 times
Reputation: 217

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
Lots of people in the U.S. have also begun using cars more efficiently. Did you know that the Prius was the biggest selling car in California in 2012? Nation-wide it was only 14th, but California is the largest car market in the country. Most changes are incremental and happen over time.
Your "lots of people" is a very miniscule drop in a very large bucket.



It might help those who buy the Prius vehicle a little, but even add thousands of these vehicle to the roads of cities in California where they are affordable (to the lucky few) is not going to solve America's oil addiction problem.

The only real long term solution is to change the American suburban living arrangement to something that is less dependent on cars.

Or maybe I am missing something.
Praytell, how ELSE do you expect to see this problem solved?

Last edited by Geologic; 02-22-2013 at 10:02 PM..

 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:12 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,069 posts, read 16,085,690 times
Reputation: 12647
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
Lord in Heaven ! What a response !

Are you living in a cave somewhere?
What do you think is allowing the US to import about 7-8 million barrels a day?

Well, to start with: it is not because the US is exporting goods in trade for those oil imports. Our "excellent" country is exporting its paper currency to pay for that oil. And that currency gets exchanged for US treasury obligations. So all those oil exporters are relying on "the full faith and credit of the US government" as our debts to foreign nations grows and grows.

Do you think this is sustainable?

Have you noticed that China has begun to decrease its holdings of US Treasuries, and otehr countries are beginning to be less will to take US dollars, and to buy our bonds.

How do you imagine this is going to end?
China's currency will go up against the dollar versus ours in value. The current account deficit (trade deficit) we run the China is only made possible because China buys up all those dollars from Chinese importers and lends them to the US Treasury in exchange for bonds. Foxconn doesn't have a whole lot of use for US dollars. It can trade those on currency markets, but if China isn't pegging its currency to yours by setting the market price by buying up our debt, then the value of US dollars is going to fall compared to the Yuan. The longer the current account deficit persists, the more it's going to fall, making Chinese imports less attractive.

So the question is, who is going to be hurt more by that? Us or the Chinese? Sure, it the short run we'll have to pay more for our Chinese made goodies. Our iPhones, clothes, computers... basically every consumer good that China makes is going to cost more making it more attractive to invest capital back in the US and start producing things domestically. Less valuable dollar = best thing that could happen to us. It'd be a bitter pill to swallow in the short run, but overwhelmingly beneficial in the larger scheme of things.
 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:20 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,069 posts, read 16,085,690 times
Reputation: 12647
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
Your "lots of people" is a very miniscule drop in a very large bucket.



It might help those who buy the Prius vehicle a little, but even add thousands of these vehicle to the roads of cities in California where they are affordable (to the lucky few) is not going to solve America's oil addiction problem.

The only real long term solution is to change the American suburban living arrangement to something that is less dependent on cars.

Or maybe I am missing something.
Praytell, how ELSE do you expect to see this problem solved?
You're still under the impression it's an American problem. It isn't. Whether the oil is consumed in America, or China, or Brazil, or France... it's still consumed. It's a global problem. Why shoot yourself in the foot worrying about it when there's 500 other countries happy to use any you carefully don't. The "problem" will solve itself when there's a cheaper form of energy than oil and not before. If you want to do something about it, do as China has done and consume as much fossil fuels as you possible can while become the world leader in solar power. Europe's model has been to tax fuel so someone else consumes your artificially low demand and use it to pay for welfare benefits. It doesn't result in any less consumption of oil.
 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:31 PM
 
3,463 posts, read 4,542,550 times
Reputation: 7127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Escort Rider View Post
More emotionally over-loaded language. Witches and puritains. Burning at the stake. No one wants to burn you at the stake, my poor fellow, despite your efforts to be as obnoxious as possible. Calling those who disagree with you "peasants". That's just a pure insult without any real content attached. Posts like the one above contribute nothing to any rational discussion. Why the hyperbole? Does it make you feel better?
Emotional, yes . . . It is unfathomable to me that people are so apathetic to this and the peripheral issues that surround it. While my posts are obnoxious to you, be assured, your posts invoke the same reaction in me. Suburb/Mall mentality at its fetid worst. As for the "rational" =/=" peasants" stuff . . . One might add 'sarcasm' to the list of items you just cant seem to comprehend.
 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:48 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 873,136 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
You're still under the impression it's an American problem. It isn't. Whether the oil is consumed in America, or China, or Brazil, or France... it's still consumed. It's a global problem.
I think you have not gone far enough in your thinking...

+ Of course, the oil market is a global market, as you have said. The US isn't alone in wanting more oil than the world can easily deliver at current prices. Other nations want their oil too. The thing that you need to focus upon is: which countries can pay for the oil that they want in the future?

+ The US has a huge balance of trade deficit. It pays for its huge global military machine, and its imported oil by printing dollars, not by exporting goods that the world wants to buy. So far, all those exported dollars have found their way back to the US as foreigners bought US treasury obligations. But the huge appetite (for US bonds) that is needed to absorb the increasing ouflow of dollars is not infinite. China is already moving to reduce its holdings of US treasuries. And other countries may follow suit. So what is going to happen to the US dollar when many foreigners want to unload, perhaps all at once?

Answer: the US$ will plummet.



+ The US dollar has remained stable so far, because other countries have wanted to create an advantage for their exports by making their currencies weak - the so-called currency wars. We saw a big drop in the yen over the last few months. And now it is Sterling's turn. And maybe the Euro is weak after that. These falls in other currencies have helped the dollar. But the US dollar's turn will come. And then when the desire to unload dollars takes root, the fact that so many foreigners hold such a vast amount of dollars will put the currency into serious weakness.

+ The US may find the benefits of a cheaper currency are not very useful. The main problem will be, as the dollar falls, then : oil-priced-in-dollars will go up. And the way that the US will experience a weaker dollar will be mainly through a jump in oil prices, and a squeeze on the car dependent.

I see this coming as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow, but I cannot tell you when. But I am sure that I do not want to get in the way of the next oil price debacle.

Last edited by Geologic; 02-22-2013 at 11:22 PM..
 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:56 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 873,136 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by thunderkat59 View Post
Emotional, yes . . .
...your posts invoke the same reaction in me. Suburb/Mall mentality at its fetid worst.
I find it funny...
The car-dependent folk talk about the "emotional response" from those who warn them about the risks of being so dependent on oil. Sometimes TK and I have even been called "arrogant" for being so sure in our views about the dangers of oil-import-dependency.

But if you look up "arrogant" in the dictionary, then what you will find is that someone who is arrogant has "assumed an attitude of superiority." THAT is not what TK and I are doing. Quite the opposite.

We look at a fact like this:
"5% of the world's population in the US go on using 20-25% of the world's oil"


In that fact, we see where the real arrogance is - It is in the assumption that this outsized usage of oil can go on indefinitely. That notion offends and bothers me in every possible way. Moreover, since I live outside the US, I can tell you that it also bothers some foreign people, including some of those in countries who hold US debt.

I think I can see how this movie is going to end, and it will not be a happy ending - more of a disaster film in the making.

Why do people get upset with those who can read the script a few scenes ahead? Are they so determined to live through the disaster, unspoiled by prior knowledge, that what to rubbish those who give the ending away?

Last edited by Geologic; 02-22-2013 at 11:12 PM..
 
Old 02-22-2013, 10:59 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 873,136 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
So the question is, who is going to be hurt more by that? Us or the Chinese? Sure, it the short run we'll have to pay more for our Chinese made goodies. Our iPhones, clothes, computers... basically every consumer good ....
LOL.
M., you have forgotten something fundamental and basic.
China does not need to lend the US money to buy their goods. They can lend money to their own people to buy their goods. And that is exactly what is beginning to happen more-and-more in China.
 
Old 02-22-2013, 11:11 PM
 
3,463 posts, read 4,542,550 times
Reputation: 7127
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post
THAT is not what TK and I are doing. Quite the opposite.
Exactly
In any forum on CD, one can find issues related to autocentricity. Whether is congestion, traffic in Atlanta, gas prices or any other number of things, -- posters are going all " hyperbole " -- and its all good. One after the next comes in hi5'ing the hate on left lane drivers, gas prices, slow poeple etc . . . but sit back and laugh at not being part of it, or actually have the audacity to care about your community past and present --you are a circus freak.

Still not getting it
 
Old 02-22-2013, 11:23 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 21 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,011 posts, read 102,621,396 times
Reputation: 33070
Quote:
Originally Posted by Geologic View Post

How do you imagine this is going to end?
The sky is going to fall!
 
Old 02-22-2013, 11:29 PM
 
Location: Hong Kong
1,329 posts, read 873,136 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
The sky is going to fall!
Thanks.
And if you want to add a serious response to that one... It could be very interesting.

(I am one of those guys who predicted a crash in US home prices months and even years before it happened, and took some ridicule for it. But after it happened, some people called me up to congratulate me for getting it right, even if being a bit early in making the forecast.)
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