Will the urban trend weather demographics? (metro, subway, major, compared)
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It's not a tend. It's a fundamental shift, akin to coming out of an ice age and returning to a more normal climate after a 50 year failed experiment.
And it's really just getting started. In 20 years cities already not highly urban such as SF, Boston and NYC will be transformed.
Whoa. Hold on, there. An approaching reality could derail your utopia.
Katiana is right in her "age in place" statement. Baby Boomers are, indeed, ageing in place; they own a significant percentage of suburban homes, at least in California. When, sometime after 2020-2030, that generation begins to pass on in large numbers due to old age, the market is going to be flooded with suburban detached SFHs.
The shift away from suburbs could quickly grind to a halt as the oversupply of available homes realigns prices away from urban environments.
Though the Boomers are not going to vanish all at once, the availability of pre-built homes is going to put downward pressure on developers via competition for scarce buyer dollars.
It's not a tend. It's a fundamental shift, akin to coming out of an ice age and returning to a more normal climate after a 50 year failed experiment.
And it's really just getting started. In 20 years cities already not highly urban such as SF, Boston and NYC will be transformed.
Sorry to rain on your parade.
"Perhaps the most surprising finding of the NAHB survey is not what we want in our homes, but where we want our homes to be. Just 8 percent of those surveyed want to live in a city center, 36 percent prefer the outer suburbs, 30 percent the close-in suburbs and 27 percent still want the old-fashioned, rural American living. This counters recent assertions by those in the apartment sector that Americans are increasingly seeking a more urban lifestyle."
It seems like most of my friends (range from around 22-35) are split pretty evenly between preferring inner-city, inner suburb, outer suburb and rural.
"Perhaps the most surprising finding of the NAHB survey is not what we want in our homes, but where we want our homes to be. Just 8 percent of those surveyed want to live in a city center, 36 percent prefer the outer suburbs, 30 percent the close-in suburbs and 27 percent still want the old-fashioned, rural American living. This counters recent assertions by those in the apartment sector that Americans are increasingly seeking a more urban lifestyle."
The math is still pretty compelling... 66% of homes are owner occupied. Even if the other 34% all want urban center living and and opt to rent, the trend is still towards SFH and suburbs.
The math is still pretty compelling... 66% of homes are owner occupied. Even if the other 34% all want urban center living and and opt to rent, the trend is still towards SFH and suburbs.
There seems to be little question from my experience - almost everyone I know who spent their 20s and early 30s in an urban neighborhood do not actually WANT to move to the suburbs. However many still do, often because of schools. Almost every friend that left for the suburbs would not have done so if the schools were better. The ones that did move seem somewhat regretful, especially when so many of their other friends are staying in the city and making it work.
Alot of this comes down to schools improving, which is already happening with the recent influx of educated parents staying in the city. 20 years ago, staying in the city with kids probably didn't seem like an option. 10 years ago, a small number of parents started to make it happen. Now it seems to be snowballing - many younger parents are seeing that it can be done and are staying, at least through elementary school.
It's pretty shortsighted of that study to exclude in-city SFH residential neighborhoods from the counting.
Good point, the vast majority of US cities are built mostly of SFHs. Only exceptions are cities like Boston, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco (maybe, lots of attached homes there).
Some of the trendiest cities right now are chock full of detached SFHs (Austin, Portland, Seattle, Denver, etc).
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