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View Poll Results: Will there be more or fewer auto-related fataties in the 21st century compared to the 20th?
more 14 34.15%
fewer 27 65.85%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-18-2014, 09:28 PM
 
294 posts, read 373,410 times
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Nothing will cause auto deaths to fall more than self-driving cars. Most auto accidents are caused by human error - drinking, not paying attention, falling asleep at the wheel. Once self-driving cars are common, I think auto deaths will fall by more than fifty percent.
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Old 07-23-2014, 07:22 PM
 
Location: Sydney, Australia
10,187 posts, read 7,798,393 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The thread was about the U.S., not the world.

That said, I'm fairly certain the number of people who die in car crashes will be much, much lower in the U.S. this century. First, vehicle miles per capita seem to have have peaked. But more importantly, even by the most pessimistic projections by the second half of the 21st century we should have moved to an entirely automated driving system, which should reduce accident rates by 80%-90%.
What a cocky reply.

Newsflash, the US is PART of this WORLD. I'm pretty sure I included them when I mentioned the world...
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Old 07-24-2014, 08:44 PM
 
1,110 posts, read 909,893 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theropod View Post
What a cocky reply.

Newsflash, the US is PART of this WORLD. I'm pretty sure I included them when I mentioned the world...
Yes, but the OP did specify that this is about accident-related deaths increasing or decreasing in the US. Plus you have countries whose middle class citizens are just now getting their first cars. The transportation authorities are their infantile stages, and the rules for driving on roads are inadequate. So around the world numbers will go up. But Australia, Western Europe, Japan, and the U.S. are already past that infantile stage. We have learned from our past mistakes on the road and learned how to make every aspect of driving safer, from speed limits to better roads to wider lanes to laws restricting drivers to safer car regulations to policing the streets. Within the past 5 years, several municipalities have passed laws restricting cell phone use in cars after seeing how distracting and destructive they can be while driving. And with self-driving cars on the horizon, we can again predict that crash numbers will go down percentage wise. Of course, we have to take into account that cars weren't really popular until midway into the 20th century and any comparisons between this century and last century will have to be extrapolated.
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Old 07-28-2014, 08:47 AM
 
4,023 posts, read 3,267,953 times
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Judging by the endless headlines I see everyday in the news about people getting maimed and killed in horrific car crashes I don't see the numbers going down anytime soon.






12-year-old Joie Sellers, victim in Brooklyn crash, mourned at wake - NY Daily News

In Terryville, drunken driver killed pedestrian, cops say - Newsday

Driver suffers apparent heart attack, dies in Queens crash that leaves passengers trapped, children seriously injured - NY Daily News

No Homicide Charge for Unlicensed Curb-Jumping Driver Who Killed SI Woman | Streetsblog New York City
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Old 07-29-2014, 12:18 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 6,380,753 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cisco kid View Post
Judging by the endless headlines I see everyday in the news about people getting maimed and killed in horrific car crashes I don't see the numbers going down anytime soon.
Headlines can be misleading due to a variety of extraneous factors; you should look at the measured fatality rate if you want to divine any kind of road safety trend.
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Old 07-29-2014, 02:10 PM
 
4,023 posts, read 3,267,953 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Patricius Maximus View Post
Headlines can be misleading due to a variety of extraneous factors; you should look at the measured fatality rate if you want to divine any kind of road safety trend.


What's your point? When a headline tells you someone has died or was seriously hurt in a car crash, that is pretty clear cut.
The daily headlines about these crashes are depressing enough, personally I don't need to read the gory details.
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Old 07-29-2014, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Laurentia
5,593 posts, read 6,380,753 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cisco kid View Post
What's your point? When a headline tells you someone has died or was seriously hurt in a car crash, that is pretty clear cut.
The daily headlines about these crashes are depressing enough, personally I don't need to read the gory details.
The amount of death headlines media outlets report doesn't tell you anything about how many people are dying versus some long-ago period, let alone how many people are dying adjusted for the amount they travel (i.e. more people traveling will mean more fatalities even if the fatality rate/level of risk remains the same). Risk and projections of it must be judged by objective measures, not subjective emotionalism of the kind the "if it only saves one life" crowd wallows in; headlines fall under the latter, reliable fatality rate statistics fall under the former. Without knowing the current objective level of danger, the future population, and how much they will travel, one cannot predict with any accuracy the future trends in road safety as the OP is asking us to do.

Without that factual grounding, one would have to conclude that being out on the street was more dangerous than ever last year due to increased headlines related to the knockout game, ignoring the fact that such attacks if they even exist at all are so rare they have no effect on crime rates/one's level of danger.
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Old 07-30-2014, 05:36 PM
 
12,302 posts, read 15,205,734 times
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Notice how fatalities decreased even though population of vehicles increased. I predict it will grow slower, and future improvements in safety will send the numbers down even more.
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Old 08-08-2014, 02:36 PM
 
3,698 posts, read 10,225,649 times
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Most cars will be autonomous or semi-autonomous within 15-20 years, so death and accident rates are going to plummet.
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Old 08-08-2014, 03:18 PM
 
Location: bend oregon
929 posts, read 844,707 times
Reputation: 351
More deaths because that's how the earth rolls
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