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Old 05-01-2013, 08:22 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MUTGR View Post
The Triumph of Suburbia | Newgeography.com

I don't believe this makes him a "lover of sprawl," as Florida claims.


I think he's just accurately presenting the data that shows that a majority of people continue to prefer more suburban settings - despite the many predictions to the contrary from the pro-urbanist crowd.
I think he's just trolling the urbanists.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
It could be that people who fit a certain demographic profile prefer cities (i.e., young(er), white, educated, affluent (relatively), environmentally-conscious, etc.). So you basically have the SWPL class--who have more money to spend on housing than the prole class--battling it out amongst themselves to live in the limited, walkable inner city neighborhoods in metro areas across the country. That doesn't necessarily mean that there are more people who want to live in cities. It could just mean that the people who tend to gravitate to cities are richer.
Ultimately though the lower classes do tend to follow the trends that the rich started. The rich were the first people to suburbanize in the late 19th century after all. So I wouldn't be surprised if eventually there is a cultural shift among the "proles" when they realize that what the elite think is cool has shifted dramatically.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:53 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Ultimately though the lower classes do tend to follow the trends that the rich started. The rich were the first people to suburbanize in the late 19th century after all. So I wouldn't be surprised if eventually there is a cultural shift among the "proles" when they realize that what the elite think is cool has shifted dramatically.
Maybe, maybe not. I was just throwing that out there as a possible reason for housing in the city being more expensive. You can almost control for levels of education, income and other factors and predict where someone is likely to live. A Cal Berkeley Ph.D. is not likely to be living in Woodbridge, VA. And an ex-Marine now master electrician is not likely to be living in Logan Circle even if he makes more than a lot of the SWPLs living in the city.

There's an assumption, I think, that most people would live in a swanky condo in the middle of the city if they only had the means to do so. I'm just not sure that's right. I think some people get that impression because the people they hang around are like-minded and also value walkability, amenities, transit, etc. But I honestly think that the number of people who value those things are in the minority, albeit a well-educated and affluent minority.

I have family that fit the profile of the ex-Marine I described above. High school straight to military, blue collar (these are the guys who come to fix your office air conditioning), diehard Redskins fans, Big SUV drivers, and homophobic to the core. They would most certainly vote Republican if they were white. They have no interest in anything urban and never have. So I think you really do have two segregated housing markets in a sense.
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Old 05-02-2013, 07:59 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
It could be that people who fit a certain demographic profile prefer cities (i.e., young(er), white, educated, affluent (relatively), environmentally-conscious, etc.). So you basically have the SWPL class--who have more money to spend on housing than the prole class--battling it out amongst themselves to live in the limited, walkable inner city neighborhoods in metro areas across the country. That doesn't necessarily mean that there are more people who want to live in cities. It could just mean that the people who tend to gravitate to cities are richer.
There are lots of rich people in the (more distant, autocentric) suburbs (and plenty of stuff that white people like). It IS possible that more people in general prefer the suburbs, but "limited, walkable inner city neighborhoods" are too few to accommodate them all - say 30% demand WUPs, and the supply is only 10% of housing. I think thats basically what Yglesias is saying - there volume of WUP development is (relatively) low, becaue supply is constrained. That is in fact the logical result when you see volume low, but price high. Chateau Lafitte isnt pricier than Yellowtail because rich folks like it, while ordinary folks prefer yellowtail. Its because theres a limited supply of Ch Lafitte. What the price of WUPs would be if the supply were more abundant, is difficult to tell, until you actually have abundant supply. The reasons supply may be constrained are debatable and worthy of a different discussion (Im not necessarily 100% in agreement with Yglesias on the reasons)

But bottom line - what Im saying, and what MY is saying, is not necessarily that more people want WUPs - but that the factoid Kotkin presents does NOT establish that they don't.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:04 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
There's an assumption, I think, that most people would live in a swanky condo in the middle of the city if they only had the means to do so. I'm just not sure that's right. I think some people get that impression because the people they hang around are like-minded and also value walkability, amenities, transit, etc. But I honestly think that the number of people who value those things are in the minority, albeit a well-educated and affluent minority..

The swanky condo in the middle of the city is an extreme case. Who is bidding up the prices of SFHs close to the RB corridor in North Arlington, of condos in Reston Town Center, etc? Of apts in Shirlington, and tiny townhomes in Fairlington? Of new SFHs on modest lots close to walkable Old Town Fairfax?

The number of people who are willing to pay a premium (albeit sometimes only a small one) for one or another aspect (usually several) of the WUP/TOD package, while it is probably under 50% of all households, is far larger than the type of people we associate with places like Logan Circle or H Street NE.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
The swanky condo in the middle of the city is an extreme case. Who is bidding up the prices of SFHs close to the RB corridor in North Arlington, of condos in Reston Town Center, etc? Of apts in Shirlington, and tiny townhomes in Fairlington? Of new SFHs on modest lots close to walkable Old Town Fairfax?

The number of people who are willing to pay a premium (albeit sometimes only a small one) for one or another aspect (usually several) of the WUP/TOD package, while it is probably under 50% of all households, is far larger than the type of people we associate with places like Logan Circle or H Street NE.
I also don't like how the linked article correlates desire for home ownership with suburban living. Apartment living is not the norm in many dense, traditionally urban cities like Philadelphia, Baltimore, or DC, where many people want to buy a rowhouse (as an example), but would balk at a suburban house. I presume in cities elsewhere in the country, where detached housing is dominant, many people want to buy a house within city limits which may have more historical elements and greater transit access, but that doesn't mean they want a fully suburban existence.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
There are lots of rich people in the (more distant, autocentric) suburbs (and plenty of stuff that white people like).
I'm not saying that SWPLs do not like (and do not live in) suburbs. I'm just saying that proles don't particularly care for cities. If you had to winnow down the population to the people who truly care about walkability, amenities, and proximity to transit, I suspect it would be a minority of the population in nearly all metro areas. That's not to say that "proles" don't care about those things at all, but I think SWPLs place a much higher value on them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
It IS possible that more people in general prefer the suburbs, but "limited, walkable inner city neighborhoods" are too few to accommodate them all - say 30% demand WUPs, and the supply is only 10% of housing.
No doubt about it. There's too much demand and not enough supply for the people who want properities in those neighborhoods. But that still doesn't impact my notion that a fair segment of the population has no interest in those areas. My opinion is that it's basically the SWPL class fighting for those properties. And the fact that the SWPL class (or "Creative Class") is more affluent than the prole class (or "Service Class") contributes to higher prices as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
But bottom line - what Im saying, and what MY is saying, is not necessarily that more people want WUPs - but that the factoid Kotkin presents does NOT establish that they don't.
"WUP" means "walkable urban property??" And that's fine if the "evidence" he presents does not establish that most people do not want "WUPs." I'm only saying that prices for WUPs may possibly be higher because the competition (an elite minority) is wealthier.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:29 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
The swanky condo in the middle of the city is an extreme case. Who is bidding up the prices of SFHs close to the RB corridor in North Arlington, of condos in Reston Town Center, etc? Of apts in Shirlington, and tiny townhomes in Fairlington? Of new SFHs on modest lots close to walkable Old Town Fairfax?
I have a decent guess...

It's largely the same type of people who live in DC. My friend and her husband, for example, both Double Ivies (meaning undergrad and law school), moved from Capitol Hill to Del Ray after they had their first child. They now live within walking distance of the Dairy Godmother. So I think you're largely competing with the same people with the same values. You're often just competing with them at a different stage in their lives.

I don't know enough about housing in Fairlington or the other places to make any comments about them.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:34 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
"WUP" means "walkable urban property??" And that's fine if the "evidence" he presents does not establish that most people do not want "WUPs." I'm only saying that prices for WUPs may possibly be higher because the competition (an elite minority) is wealthier.
wup = walkable urban place.

Im not sure the argument about the correlation of wealth and preference holds. For example, most people have higher incomes when they are older - and more likely to have children, than when they are younger. Within the proportion of the pop that has college degrees, Im not sure there is a correlation between income and taste for WUPs - I think it may even be the reverse (though that will differ by metro - in the weaker ones, where taste for WUPs is mostly by deep green hipster types, the "urbanists" are probably poorer than other college grads - in the stronger and larger metros, that have developed "frat boy" WUPs like Hoboken or Clarendon, the correlation between taste for WUPs and income WITHIN the college educated sector is probably larger)

It is true that there is probably a link between college education and taste for WUPs.
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Old 05-02-2013, 08:37 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,816 posts, read 10,721,253 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
I have a decent guess...

It's largely the same type of people who live in DC. My friend and her husband, for example, both Double Ivies (meaning undergrad and law school), moved from Capitol Hill to Del Ray after they had their first child. They now live within walking distance of the Dairy Godmother. So I think you're largely competing with the same people with the same values. You're often just competing with them at a different stage in their lives.

I don't know enough about housing in Fairlington or the other places to make any comments about them.

Del Ray is much hipper, and generally more like DC nabe than the places I mentioned. So its not surprising it draws the Capital Hill types. IE those who want more or less the full WUP package, and tied up with a hipster indie business knot.

You need to look af the "fake urbanist places with chain stores" (like RTC). the preurbanist places that have walkability (like Fairlington), etc, to see the demand for places that either have the full WUP package, but WITHOUT the hip charecteristics, or that have only parts of the WUP package.
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