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Old 05-02-2013, 10:58 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve View Post
Perhaps in NY, Boston, San Fran and DC- but this pricing dynamic does NOT exist in most US cities. Pricing in global cities includes a real element of scarcity which contributes to much higher prices in certain locations.

I wonder - if we looked at areas with comparable crime rates between center city parts of chicago or philly or baltimore, say, and the suburbs, and compared on a per sq ft basis, what we would find.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:03 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,091 posts, read 16,121,723 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
By looking at national obesity rates as well as the ratings for Here Comes Honey Boo Boo, the Real Housewives of Atlanta and Trinidad James album sales.

Urbanmania is really more of a Creative Class thing (which is really more of an upper middle class white thing). It's really a certain type of person who values it.

A SWPL is more likely to do the following...

Read the New York Times
Go on sites like City-Data or Atlantic Cities
Go to college straight out of high school
Have a passport
Have a college degree
Have a white collar or artistic profession (architect, dentist, lawyer, doctor, software designer, musician, etc.)
Exercise
Eschew Junk Food
Drive a Subaru
Not attend church
Not shop at Wal-Mart
Recycle
Live in an urban, walkable area
Own a magazine with Zooey Deschanel on the front cover

A prole is more likely to do the following...

Not read at all
Get a job or enter the military directly out of high school
Go on sites like TMZ and Necole Bitchie
Shop at Wal-Mart
Attend church
Not leave the United States (unless military)
Eat at buffets like Golden Corral
Drive a Chevy Suburban
Watch a lot of television
Live in a more car-dependent area (and not care)
Have a poster with Megan Fox half naked
Display open homophobia
Pay attention to Fox News (unless black)

I'd say the latter outnumber the former by a good bit.
So you think Atherton, Marin County, Woodside, etc, etc are full of uneducated, surburban driving, rednecks? You're clueless. There's certainly suburbs like that... Sacramento has North Highlands which has pretty much the same demographic as southern Sacramento except it's mostly white trash instead of Hispanic/black trash. And then there's all the hard working, decent people eeking out a living who outnumber the trash but are stuck living side by side with them. It also has Roseville, Folsom, EDH, Granite Bay, ass well as plenty of less affluent but not trashy suburbs like Elk Grove on down, Citrus Heights, and down to Rancho Cordova.

The majority of SPWL don't prefer living in cities either, that's why they pay more to live in Marin/Peninsula and why you still have many parts of San Francisco that still are relatively affordable, at least in comparison to the suburbs.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:04 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by weteath View Post
Hm, how do you come to this conclusion? I'm along the lines of thinking if prices were even it'd be 50/50.
Pew did a survey that asked people if they would take a smaller house if it was walkable to transit and other amenities. Something like one third said yes.

Im not sure what Pew showed on demographics, but at one third, knowing there are many college grads who would NOT express that preference, there had to be some non college grads who said yes.

Now granted - many who said yes probably envisioned giving up maybe, 10 to 20% of their square footage in exchange for walkable proximity to heavy rail transit and a full range of related amenities - IE an unrealistic tradeoff. I tend to think of the real market for WUPs at this time as less than that - maybe 20 - 25%. I dont know if thats all college grads - i doubt it is, but its probably mostly college grads.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:06 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
By looking at national obesity rates as well as the ratings for Here Comes Honey Boo Boo, the Real Housewives of Atlanta and Trinidad James album sales.

Urbanmania is really more of a Creative Class thing (which is really more of an upper middle class white thing). It's really a certain type of person who values it.

A SWPL is more likely to do the following...

Read the New York Times
I bet there are more NYT subscribers in Westchester than in Brooklyn.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:13 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
. But the people who do gravitate towards WUPs will almost invariably be SWPL. If you look at the wealth in most regions, it's probably largely concentrated (or at least more of it is starting to concentrate) around the more walkable areas (i.e., core DC, Bethesda, Chevy Chase, bucolic MoCo suburbs). And the residents of these areas are more likely than not SWPL.

you mean like the chevy chase residents who have waged war on the purple line? The Upper NW DC folks who are battling the eevil planners who want to take their cars from them and force them to use transit? The folks who loudly proclaim that Arlington is "suburban, not urban"?

You mention folks who drive chevies vs folks who drive subarus.

Where in this are the folks who drive BMWs, Mercedes, Lexus, etc? Which I think you find plenty of in the affluent "creative class" suburbs.

Youre making the same mistake I think Florida makes. To show that the majority of the new urban residents (and at least for him, the drivers of growth) are "creative class" he definces CC broadly - almost anyone with a college degree. But when talking about "stuff they like" he shifts to a narrower definition.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:40 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,302 posts, read 26,300,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
the number of high income 50 YO, or highly educated 50 YOs, who live in Cap hill or del ray or Old town is vanishingly small compared to the numbers who live in Loudoun, outer fairfax, Potomac, etc.
I'm not sure if you read this the first time around.

Quote:
But a 50-year old SWPL will be drawn to a Capitol Hill, a Del Ray, an Old Town or some other walkable type of area with farmer's markets and easy access to public transportation.
I bolded and italicised the words "drawn to" for a reason. That's not the same as saying that most 50-year old highly-educated men live in WUPs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
I think the argument is getting circular here. Youre not saying highly educated people tend to prefer WUPs - youre saying people who like the things that are often associated with WUPs like WUPS.
Highly-educated people tend to be SWPLs. And SWPLs tend to prefer WUPs (at least compared to proles). There's not perfect overlap among education, income, and SWPLness, but I do believe that the three tend to be strongly correlated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
Which is not surprising, but doesnt tell us much. If you could specifiy the group differently - say liberal arts grads vs tech grads, or liberals vs Consies, that would work. Except then you have to deal with all the liberal artsy type adults who live in place like Reston, or Potomac - in greater NY in Westchester, or Great Neck - or in many suburbs of Boston. Who are just find with cars and shopping center parking lots.
I'm sure there are some SWPLs who are fine with cars and shopping centers. I never said otherwise. I entered this thread in response to this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
if so many more people want to live in suburbs, why does a 2BR condo in a good part of DC cost as much as a 3BR townhouse in an inner suburb, or a 3BR SFH in an outer suburb?
My point was that higher prices in the city are not evidence that more people want to live in cities or even that the proportion of people who desire to live in cities compared to the people who want to live in suburbs is even close. I believe that most people are rather indifferent to any type of urban living whether that be Manhattan or cozy walkable streetcar suburbs. The people who are drawn to this type of living are virtually all part of the SWPL or Creative Class. And what is true is that the demand for WUPs among this class far exceeds their supply.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:50 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
I'm not sure if you read this the first time around.



I bolded and italicised the words "drawn to" for a reason. That's not the same as saying that most 50-year old highly-educated men live in WUPs.



Highly-educated people tend to be SWPLs. And SWPLs tend to prefer WUPs (at least compared to proles). There's not perfect overlap among education, income, and SWPLness, but I do believe that the three tend to be strongly correlated.



I'm sure there are some SWPLs who are fine with cars and shopping centers. I never said otherwise. I entered this thread in response to this:



My point was that higher prices in the city are not evidence that more people want to live in cities or even that the proportion of people who desire to live in cities compared to the people who want to live in suburbs is even close. I believe that most people are rather indifferent to any type of urban living whether that be Manhattan or cozy walkable streetcar suburbs. The people who are drawn to this type of living are virtually all part of the SWPL or Creative Class. And what is true is that the demand for WUPs among this class far exceeds their supply.

i suspect I know more affluent college educated suburban 50 YOs than you do, and my strong sense is that quite a few of them actively dislike places like the Hill, for many reasons, and many of those who do not disilike it might think it an okay place to have dinner, but wouldnt dream of wanting to live there even if they did not have families in tow. I think you also seem to consider the desire to live in such a place as 100% a cultural thing - I beleive at least a few people with no cultural/ideological preference for "urbanism" simply do not enjoy needing to drive everywhere. But I do not want to divert this into a discussion of the practicalities of urban living.

I believe you are way overemphasizing the role of these cultural stereotypes in impacting behavior in both directions, as well as rather underemphasizing the diversity of tastes among the educated.

But again, I did not mean to imply that the price difference proved that greater than 50% of households have a preference for urban living. What I wanted to indicate is that the factoid Kotkin pointed out (which this thread began with) does not prove the opposite, since he ignores the role of price. Note the line you bolded "so many more" It may well be be that the number with SOME preference for walkable convenience to transit and/or other amenities is less than 50% but well over what Kotkin implied.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:56 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
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note this quote from kotkin

"80 percent of Americans prefer a single family house to an apartment or a townhouse."

I would say that 20% preference for an apt or TH, over a SFH, without even menton of offsetting convenience, is strikingly HIGH.

add to that those would prefer a TH or Apt in exchange for greater convenience - or who would prefer a smalller SFH on a smaller lot in such exchange - and I would say the case that the market for WUPs is at least 25%, or maybe even as high as Pews 33%, is much strong indeed.

And thats at a time when in much of America there are few examples of WUPs that people are familiar with, or such WUPs as they are have SES charecteristics they dislike. As more places change, and as more people become familiar with WUPs and how they work, that number may well increase.
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Old 05-02-2013, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,302 posts, read 26,300,037 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
So you think Atherton, Marin County, Woodside, etc, etc are full of uneducated, surburban driving, rednecks? You're clueless.
Hmmm...it's interesting how emotion (and a kneejerk proclivity for political correctness) can morph the plain meaning of written words into something entirely different.

What do the words "more likely to do the following" mean to you? And how on earth does that translate into "all suburbs are this" or "all cities are that?" Please. Tell me.

You can basically take everything I listed and place it in a sentence.

SWPLs are more likely than proles to read the New York Times.
SWPLs are more likely to attend college straight out of high school than proles.
SWPLs are more likely to have a passport than proles.
SWPLs are more likely to live in cities than proles.
Proles are more likely to drive a Chevy Suburban than SWPLs.
Proles are more likely to be homophobic than SWPLs.
Proles are more likely to join the military directly out of high school than SWPLs.
Proles are more likely to live in car-dependent suburbs than SWPLs.

For all of the railing against stereotyping that goes on, we know that these things are largely true. The Mitt Romney campaign, for example, knows that someone with a subscription to the New York Times, attended college, and drives a Subaru is not going to vote for them. And the Obama campaign knows that someone who enlisted in the Marines right out of high school, attends church regularly, and drives a Ford F-150 is not going to vote for them. I mean, I don't think there was anything particularly controversial about what I wrote.
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Old 05-02-2013, 12:04 PM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,817 posts, read 10,729,607 times
Reputation: 2523
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilton2ParkAve View Post
Perhaps in NY, Boston, San Fran and DC- but this pricing dynamic does NOT exist in most US cities. Pricing in global cities includes a real element of scarcity which contributes to much higher prices in certain locations.

but the specific places Kotkin discusses in the article are SF and NYC. he goes and on about folks moving to the hudson river towns (some of which ARE the cosy villages BY mentions above). In Silicon Valley, theres a light rail under way, and I think some of the towns are trying to become more "urbanist".
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