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I have read where the first "inexpensive" driverless car will be on the market in only 3 years, 2016. That is why everyone keeps talking about 10 to 20 years out which would mean 2023 to 2033.
We are, clearly, operating from different sets of information. At this point we should just agree to disagree.
We are, clearly, operating from different sets of information. At this point we should just agree to disagree.
Then let me post my source:
The article says low cost self-driving cars expected by 2016.
This is from the New York Times:
JERUSALEM — Last month, on a freeway from Jerusalem to the Dead Sea, I sat in the driver’s seat of an Audi A7 while software connected to a video camera on the windshield drove the car at speeds up to 65 miles an hour — making a singular statement about the rapid progress in the development of self-driving cars. While the widely publicized Google car and other autonomous vehicles are festooned with cameras, radar and the laser range finders called lidars, this one is distinctive because of the simplicity and the relatively low cost of its system — just a few hundred dollars’ worth of materials. “The idea is to get the best out of camera-only autonomous driving,” said Gaby Hayon, senior vice president for research and development at Mobileye Vision Technologies, the Israeli company that created the system in the Audi.
As the linked article notes, the low-cost "driverless car" feature basically amounts to advanced cruise control which can sense the road edges (hence steer) and objects in front (hence alter speed). It can also sense traffic lights, but given those don't really exist in highway driving in the U.S., that is of limited utility here.
The main thing it doesn't do is the sort of route mapping that the Google Car does. You could take your hands off the wheel for long periods, but you're still the navigator.
As the linked article notes, the low-cost "driverless car" feature basically amounts to advanced cruise control which can sense the road edges (hence steer) and objects in front (hence alter speed). It can also sense traffic lights, but given those don't really exist in highway driving in the U.S., that is of limited utility here.
The main thing it doesn't do is the sort of route mapping that the Google Car does. You could take your hands off the wheel for long periods, but you're still the navigator.
That is only 3 years away and the inexpensive cars. Information technology advances exponentially so that is why they expect most if not all the cars to be driverless in less then 20 years.
Who do you blame the accident on if the passenger isn't in control of the car? It's not their fault. I think that a "potential accident fee" would be included in a rental or subscription to the driverless car service. That way, in the case of an accident (much less likely than with human-controlled cars), the company can cover the cost of any damages. An ambulance could be dispatched to the spot to check on the people involved, and if they're ok, then another car arrives to take them to their destination; if they are not, then the ambulance takes them to the hospital. I don't really see a need to record a video of an accident in which no one is at fault.
Well, exactly. What if a driver rams into a driverless car and blames the driverless car? If the passenger is working on a laptop or even sleeping, then where's the second party testimony? They'd have to be equipped with video recorders.
Well, exactly. What if a driver rams into a driverless car and blames the driverless car? If the passenger is working on a laptop or even sleeping, then where's the second party testimony? They'd have to be equipped with video recorders.
It will make for some interesting case law in the next 20 years.
That is only 3 years away and the inexpensive cars. Information technology advances exponentially so that is why they expect most if not all the cars to be driverless in less then 20 years.
Here's the problem: while adaptive cruise control (what the A7 showcased) is already here, true autonomous cars are much, much further from production.
AI hasn't advanced to the point that it can recognize all the variations on situations that our brains handle so easily and fluidly. Machine learning, at this point, largely requires replication of given scenarios. Driving requires going beyond what has been learned and applying that knowledge to new, unique situations; current autonomous vehicle AI can't do that.
Computing hardware hasn't developed to the point that it can handle all those calculations in the compact and energy- and heat-efficient form necessary for packaging in cars.
Sensor tech is still wildly expensive. LIDAR, the best tool for mapping 3D surroundings in high detail, is wildly expensive. The going rate, according to most automotive and business articles on driverless cars, is approx. $75k per unit. And this does not include the RADAR and array of cameras also included in prototype driverless cars.
As I said before, a truly driverless car, one which can operate successfully in 99% of situations, isn't likely before 2018. Even then, the price will make it niche until advances in technology and production (ie, economies of scale) bring down the component prices. As this hasn't happened yet for electric vehicles (a new e-RAV4 lists at $41k before rebates), despite a long history of development, I'm not optimistic for autonomous vehicles.
Currently, it's a lot of industry hype feeding on itself more than reality.
It will make for some interesting case law in the next 20 years.
I'm not picking a fight with you. Honest. You just happen to make the last post before I respond. Just to clear that up now.
One possible outcome is to treat these cars as we treat many consumer products: faults are the responsibility of the manufacturer when the product is used correctly (and sometimes wildly incorrectly in some so-called "jackpot" states).
What will be interesting, then, is how the automotive insurance industry changes if the fault is the responsibility of the manufacturer instead of the operator.
Well, exactly. What if a driver rams into a driverless car and blames the driverless car? If the passenger is working on a laptop or even sleeping, then where's the second party testimony? They'd have to be equipped with video recorders.
Will people still be allowed to drive when driverless cars become the norm? And honestly, if there were just a bunch of dash cams, I would be ok with that. I mean, how else would be get those awesome driving videos from Russia? Lol.
Here's the problem: while adaptive cruise control (what the A7 showcased) is already here, true autonomous cars are much, much further from production.
AI hasn't advanced to the point that it can recognize all the variations on situations that our brains handle so easily and fluidly. Machine learning, at this point, largely requires replication of given scenarios. Driving requires going beyond what has been learned and applying that knowledge to new, unique situations; current autonomous vehicle AI can't do that.
Computing hardware hasn't developed to the point that it can handle all those calculations in the compact and energy- and heat-efficient form necessary for packaging in cars.
Sensor tech is still wildly expensive. LIDAR, the best tool for mapping 3D surroundings in high detail, is wildly expensive. The going rate, according to most automotive and business articles on driverless cars, is approx. $75k per unit. And this does not include the RADAR and array of cameras also included in prototype driverless cars.
As I said before, a truly driverless car, one which can operate successfully in 99% of situations, isn't likely before 2018. Even then, the price will make it niche until advances in technology and production (ie, economies of scale) bring down the component prices. As this hasn't happened yet for electric vehicles (a new e-RAV4 lists at $41k before rebates), despite a long history of development, I'm not optimistic for autonomous vehicles.
Currently, it's a lot of industry hype feeding on itself more than reality.
I agree there is a lot of hype and I also agree that fully driverless cars that's are inexpensive will take longer then 3 years I do think companies like BMW and Mercedes will have them by the end of the decade. I currently drive a Mercedes ML 500 so my plan is to have my next SUV be driverless.
As far as computer and AI technology. It is advancing exponentially so there is no reason to think the technology will not be inexpensive by the early 2020's causing most of the cars to be driverless by 2033. Enough to cause urban planning to change.
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Lol.
