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Old 01-24-2014, 09:36 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,016 posts, read 102,649,686 times
Reputation: 33083

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
But we do know that. If birth rates started declining long before anyone knew there would be a Great Recession, then there can obviously be no causal link between the Great Recession and the decline of birth rates since 1950.



Women are having children later and having fewer of them. It's hard to have ten, or even three, when the cost of attendance at many state universities is over $25,000 per year ($50,000+ plus for a lot of private schools).
Birth rates have been going down since the end of the Baby Boom. Actually, I believe the birth RATE began to decline about 1957, and the number of births began to decline in 1965. There was a "boomlet" or "echo boom" in the 1980s when the Boomers started having their own kids. However, it is totally untrue that people aren't having babies any more.
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Old 01-24-2014, 09:47 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,266 posts, read 26,263,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
Birth rates have been going down since the end of the Baby Boom. Actually, I believe the birth RATE began to decline about 1957, and the number of births began to decline in 1965. There was a "boomlet" or "echo boom" in the 1980s when the Boomers started having their own kids. However, it is totally untrue that people aren't having babies any more.
I didn't interpret that statement that way. I assumed he meant that Gen X (or whatever Gen we're up to now) is not getting married and having children at the same rate as the preceding generation. It's obvious that some people in Gen X are having children, so I didn't take his statement as an unequivocal assertion of fact. It was clear, to me anyway, that he was describing a general trend.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:00 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,016 posts, read 102,649,686 times
Reputation: 33083
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
I didn't interpret that statement that way. I assumed he meant that Gen X (or whatever Gen we're up to now) is not getting married and having children at the same rate as the preceding generation. It's obvious that some people in Gen X are having children, so I didn't take his statement as an unequivocal assertion of fact. It was clear, to me anyway, that he was describing a general trend.
I'm sorry my link didn't work. I was going to fix it, but I've been timed out. Anyway, the college educated are getting married at the same rate, albeit later. The birth rate data from the recession is obviously partly influenced by the recession. I don't know where the birth rates were before the recession began or if they had fallen precipitously from say, 1990.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,072 posts, read 16,098,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
I'm sorry my link didn't work. I was going to fix it, but I've been timed out. Anyway, the college educated are getting married at the same rate, albeit later. The birth rate data from the recession is obviously partly influenced by the recession. I don't know where the birth rates were before the recession began or if they had fallen precipitously from say, 1990.
Of course, we may see a mini-boom following the recession. Long-term it really won't reduce the birth rate. It'll just shift it down the road. That is unless there's some long-lasting structural change AND a lot of people who can't afford kids stop having kids. That's possible too. I have my doubts on how much that will be realized, however.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,266 posts, read 26,263,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
I'm sorry my link didn't work. I was going to fix it, but I've been timed out. Anyway, the college educated are getting married at the same rate, albeit later. The birth rate data from the recession is obviously partly influenced by the recession. I don't know where the birth rates were before the recession began or if they had fallen precipitously from say, 1990.
Your link may have shown that college educated women are getting married at the same rate. But college educated adults are getting married at lower rates compared to a generation ago.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,072 posts, read 16,098,416 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Your link may have shown that college educated women are getting married at the same rate. But college educated adults are getting married at lower rates compared to a generation ago.
Hmm, does that mean college-educated women are marrying down? That'd be interesting and a major shift in the social fabric. While interracial marriage is no longer that remarkable, interclass marriage had decreased. It's much less common for the doctor to marry the nurse these days than it was in the '50s.
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Old 01-24-2014, 10:48 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
28,266 posts, read 26,263,727 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Hmm, does that mean college-educated women are marrying down? That'd be interesting and a major shift in the social fabric. While interracial marriage is no longer that remarkable, interclass marriage had decreased. It's much less common for the doctor to marry the nurse these days than it was in the '50s.
Yes.

Quote:
A larger share of men in 2007, compared with their 1970 counterparts, are married to women whose education and income exceed their own, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of demographic and economic trend data. A larger share of women are married to men with less education and income.
Women, Men and the New Economics of Marriage | Pew Social & Demographic Trends
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Old 01-24-2014, 12:06 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,439 posts, read 11,941,006 times
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Originally Posted by Octa View Post
Eschaton I've been reading your other post in this thread and I find them interesting and I agree that we can't talk about urban schools(or a lot of urban topics) without mentioning race. One thing I do disagree with you on is that it mostly about race rather than class. I don't mean race as in some pseudo-science genetic, but in how people categorize minorities and the way systemic racism alters life outcomes. As you mentioned, middle income minorities tend to live in poorer neighborhoods compared to middle income whites and as a result have access to less educational opportunities. Blacks for example, tend to prefer to live in integrated neighborhoods while whites prefer mostly neighborhoods. There's racial aversion and when neighborhoods start becoming noticeably more minority, flight ensues even if the minorities are in the same income bracket. Racial steering raising interest rates on mortgages based on race are illegal, but it still occurs on a widespread level and contributes to it. The most appalling thing I ever read about though was about minority children growing up in Chicago and how the infant mortality rate in those communities is comparable to third world countries.


Overall, I think the starting point in addressing the issue of integration is to move away from the colorblindness and address systemic racism directly. The former leads people to believe that racism is just prejudice and that it's a thing of the past.
As I said, I'd like to believe it's all about class rather than race. But I've never actually seen data which suggests this. All of the data has suggested the reverse, and while reasonable refutations have been made of this, poking holes in methodology isn't the same thing as providing proof in and of itself. There is some data from the UK which suggests the children of African immigrants there do as well as whites in the school system, and second-generation African and Caribbean immigrants generally tend to do as good or better in the U.S. as white students, which leads me to think the racialist argument is false.

Still, even if we dismiss the ideas of the Bell Curve, one still comes up with troubling conclusions. Either institutional racism within the U.S. is still quite deep - so deep that the subconscious expectations of others results in students of color being primed for failure. Or else, as the "acting white" hypothesis suggests, there is something fundamentally "wrong" about black (and Latino) culture which needs to change for academic advancement to take place. Neither are comfortable positions for the political mainstream. But given attempts to address the gap through funding equalization, busing, and replacement of the existing urban educational system have all failed to produce statistically significant results, it's likely they are true to some degree.
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Old 01-24-2014, 03:33 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,016 posts, read 102,649,686 times
Reputation: 33083
Quote:
Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Your link may have shown that college educated women are getting married at the same rate. But college educated adults are getting married at lower rates compared to a generation ago.
First, here's my link about birth rates.
U.S birth rate falls to record low - Sep. 6, 2013

Here's the link about marriage rates that talks about women:
http://www.livescience.com/38308-us-...e-new-low.html

This article simply refers to college educated adults.
Barely Half of U.S. Adults Are Married

As far as who marries who, take a look at this:

College Graduates Marry Other College Graduates Most of the Time - Philip Cohen - The Atlantic
**The first thing you notice is the BA/non-BA gap. Of this population, 71 percent of college graduates married another college graduate. Women college graduates were less likely to hold rank, with just 65 percent of them marring above the BA line, compared with 78 percent of male college grads. This isn't surprising considering women earn the majority of BA degrees. But it's not as big a deal as it might seem for gender equality, because—don't forget—unmarried men earn more than unmarried women at every level of education. **

The chart is very interesting.

Here's another chart:
Live Births and Birth Rates, by Year | Infoplease.com
As you can see, there was a precipitous drop in birth rates from 1973 to 1976, then it rose again with fluctuating levels until 1995. And so on.

Last edited by Katarina Witt; 01-24-2014 at 04:33 PM..
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Old 01-24-2014, 03:35 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 23 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,016 posts, read 102,649,686 times
Reputation: 33083
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
As I said, I'd like to believe it's all about class rather than race. But I've never actually seen data which suggests this. All of the data has suggested the reverse, and while reasonable refutations have been made of this, poking holes in methodology isn't the same thing as providing proof in and of itself. There is some data from the UK which suggests the children of African immigrants there do as well as whites in the school system, and second-generation African and Caribbean immigrants generally tend to do as good or better in the U.S. as white students, which leads me to think the racialist argument is false.

Still, even if we dismiss the ideas of the Bell Curve, one still comes up with troubling conclusions. Either institutional racism within the U.S. is still quite deep - so deep that the subconscious expectations of others results in students of color being primed for failure. Or else, as the "acting white" hypothesis suggests, there is something fundamentally "wrong" about black (and Latino) culture which needs to change for academic advancement to take place. Neither are comfortable positions for the political mainstream. But given attempts to address the gap through funding equalization, busing, and replacement of the existing urban educational system have all failed to produce statistically significant results, it's likely they are true to some degree.

Analyze this:
Boulder Valley graduation rate up to 91%; drop-out rate lowest in 20 years - Boulder Daily Camera
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