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Thanks for the data, though maybe you should include median family income, since including singles could distort things a bit.
How so? Whether the households are family households or not has no bearing on the COL. If you're looking at housing prices, for example, I'd imagine you be interested in median household income, not median family income. All buyers influence the price of housing, not just the buyers that have families with children.
I daresay much of the NYC surplus of kids is due to the very large Hasidic families. Of course these are white families, but they are socially very different from the average white American family for obvious reasons.
Yep. I think that's right.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton
Philadelphia being relatively high surprises me a bit more. It's not a city known for having a good urban public school system after all. You're from there, so maybe you can shed more light.
Philly is not a very high cost city/metro. It also has a lot of non-affluent, working-class whites. For example, only 34% of the non-Hispanic White population over the age of 25 has a Bachelor's Degree or higher. In NYC, that figure is 52%. In Chicago, it's 56%. In Boston, it's 62%. In SF, it's 71%. In DC, it's an astounding 77%.
Roxborough, Northeast Philadelphia, Staten Island and select sections of the outer boroughs may contain the last vestiges of white, working-class urban America. You may also have some cities like Cleveland that have that demographic as well.
Though I think it would be great if families moved back to the cities, I don't see it happening anytime soon. As I see it, families are more likely to prefer a quiet suburban environment so they can slow down and raise their kids in a safer environment, rather than take risks in the city and put up with the hustle-and-bustle of city living. Of course, if cities can make city living more appealing and safe for children and their parents, and if the kids can be well-educated on safety in the city (walking/running/playing around busy streets, what to do around sketchy individuals, knowing the right neighborhoods and wrong neighborhoods, knowing where they can play, etc.), then I believe families will gradually return to the city. Of course, for that to have any chance at happening, all city schools everywhere must improve. There are no exceptions.
How so? Whether the households are family households or not has no bearing on the COL. If you're looking at housing prices, for example, I'd imagine you be interested in median household income, not median family income. All buyers influence the price of housing, not just the buyers that have families with children.
Heck, just look at urban neighborhoods.
Marina and Noe are both ridiculously affluent, but Marina just doesn't have the same number of children. People do tend to cluster. If you're in the income class than can afford $8-10k per month for rent/mortgage and want to live in San Francisco and have kids, most are going to choose Noe over Marina. Schools aren't really a huge concern since that demographic goes private unless they get a winning lottery ticket.
Though I think it would be great if families moved back to the cities, I don't see it happening anytime soon. As I see it, families are more likely to prefer a quiet suburban environment so they can slow down and raise their kids in a safer environment, rather than take risks in the city and put up with the hustle-and-bustle of city living. Of course, if cities can make city living more appealing and safe for children and their parents, and if the kids can be well-educated on safety in the city (walking/running/playing around busy streets, what to do around sketchy individuals, knowing the right neighborhoods and wrong neighborhoods, knowing where they can play, etc.), then I believe families will gradually return to the city. Of course, for that to have any chance at happening, all city schools everywhere must improve. There are no exceptions.
Thing is, the neighborhoods I discussed in the OP have all of that. Safe streets, good schools, low crime, etc. Sure, they are expensive, but so are suburbs like Chevy Chase, Bethesda, Kensington and Potomac. It's not like you're getting a steal by moving to Chevy Chase. The houses in Chevy Chase are probably more expensive than the ones in exclusive sections of DC.
Wilson High School has a freakin' crew team. Yet Woodley Park (zoned for Wilson), which has been white and affluent for a long time, barely has any kids.
Though I think it would be great if families moved back to the cities, I don't see it happening anytime soon. As I see it, families are more likely to prefer a quiet suburban environment so they can slow down and raise their kids in a safer environment, rather than take risks in the city and put up with the hustle-and-bustle of city living. Of course, if cities can make city living more appealing and safe for children and their parents, and if the kids can be well-educated on safety in the city (walking/running/playing around busy streets, what to do around sketchy individuals, knowing the right neighborhoods and wrong neighborhoods, knowing where they can play, etc.), then I believe families will gradually return to the city. Of course, for that to have any chance at happening, all city schools everywhere must improve. There are no exceptions.
Cities have different sorts of neighborhoods. Not every street is busy. Not every street has sketchy people.....
Probably not in cities like mine where houses large enough to contain families are being torn down to make way for large apartment buildings with tiny units too small to house families. If those new apartment buildings could be built with larger two and three bedrooms, I think families would like them. I was raised in large three bedroom apartments in another city in which I grew up. I never lived in a house as a child. But the apartments in which my family lived were big enough for a family of five.
The apartment buildings where I live now are focused on tiny studios and small one bedroom apartments. Even the scarce two bedroom apartments are large enough to accommodate roommates or couples rather than families. And all the units are very expensive. Too much for a growing middle class family to afford.
I assume that what you're really asking isn't "will families really live in cities" it's "will white affluent families live in cities".
As noted in the OP, plenty do, and in many cities the number is increasing. Overall I think it's just a reflection of larger trends: cities losing population to suburbs as highways were built in the 50's and 60's, followed by a massive outflow due to riots in the late 60's and fiscal crisis in the 70's, and then a slow recovery beginning in the 90's as crime dropped and the economy recovered. For a city today to attract more families it needs the same basic things it needs to attract pretty much anybody.
- A thriving business district so that people get closer to work by moving to the central city area. A short commute is important, and that is even more true when you have kids you want to see during the week. A solid business district also means lower property taxes for homeowners.
- Multiple transportation options that function well. If a family can get by with one car (or no car) that adds a good chunk of money that can be put towards a more expensive home.
- Safe neighborhoods with interesting things to do.
If a city has those things they just need to make different school options available (preferably public, but private can work too) and they will be attractive to families. Almost no cities in the US lack for decent housing options around the central city core, only Manhattan is primarily small apartments in skyscrapers. Most of the other NYC boroughs have plenty of housing that will work for a family. I know that here in Chicago there are loads of SFHs, you just need to get away from the lake a bit and out of the Loop. Neighborhoods like Andersonville, Lincoln Square, Bucktown, West Town, Avondale, Logan Square and North Center are relatively close to the Loop and are very much family oriented neighborhoods at this point. There are plenty of other neighborhoods on the NW and SW sides that have remained family oriented all along.
Making schools work takes work, but if you have the basic things to attract families you just have to let the families have input and do it. The book "How To Walk to School" gives a good overview of one way to do it, and the school turnaround they describe has been done at dozens of schools in Chicago (many centered on the Northside).
I also have to add that if you live in a city and don't have kids there's probably a lot of stuff going on that you're not aware of at all. Now that I'm raising a kid in the city, and sending her to CPS, I'm much more aware of how many kids there actually are in my neighborhood, and how many people are really working to improve the public schools.
here in Los Angeles, I've noticed a growing trend of wealthy 30-something newly-married couples and families with younger (early elementary) kids moving back into the metro area. Often it's their starter home, though priced $800k+. And those with children seem to be able to afford private schooling for them, which wasn't the case a generation ago when upper middle-class whites and Asians fled to the suburbs to enroll in higher achieving public schools. These affluent new families add an interesting dynamic to LA's city core, but we'll have to see how it plays out as their kids age into middle school and high school ages.
here in Los Angeles, I've noticed a growing trend of wealthy 30-something newly-married couples and families with younger (early elementary) kids moving back into the metro area. Often it's their starter home, though priced $800k+. And those with children seem to be able to afford private schooling for them, which wasn't the case a generation ago when upper middle-class whites and Asians fled to the suburbs to enroll in higher achieving public schools. These affluent new families add an interesting dynamic to LA's city core, but we'll have to see how it plays out as their kids age into middle school and high school ages.
In Oakland, anyone middle class and up, no matter the ethnicity, move or send their kids to private school now. But it may play out differently. Scores etc in Oakland are up 20% in the school district YOY fir the past 5-7. And the high school near me is pretty highly ranked and parents are clamoring to get in.....
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