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Old 07-22-2014, 03:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drive carephilly View Post
I think the point is that saying that it happens and repeating that it happens isn't proof that it's happening.

Land values aren't merely a function of who lives there. There are a lot of other factors that have a lot more bearing and the value of inner city land especially is influenced a lot more by things like infrastructure (especially transportation) and new private investment (even if it's gov't subsidized) and those types of investments go back to the 1980s in most cities but didn't really start in earnest until the 90s.

Likewise the CoL is a generally a regional issue - not a municipal one. The only thing that varies much by neighborhood is rent and even that doesn't operate in a vacuum. Rents in submarkets are dependent on a lot of factors but the biggest one is regional income (not neighborhood). Rents in the Lower East Side didn't start going up because rich people started moving there. They started going up because rents all over Manhattan were going up.
Well, my definition has the ease of being reactive, of being descriptive of something the Bay Area has already witnessed. It's not a predictive hypothesis where the idea comes before the test.

Stepping away from gentrification for a moment. Underlying CoL is, yes, a regional issue. So much goes in to CoL: regional transportation infrastructure, land use policies, developer interest and involvement, geography, politics, etc.

But neighborhood land-values certainly is dependent on who lives there. All those things you cite--infrastructure, public and private investment--mean nothing if people don't want to live there. In the SF Bay Area, tech workers can push up rents in a neighborhood (or set of neighborhoods) faster than in the larger city or larger region.
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Old 07-22-2014, 07:06 PM
 
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Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
But neighborhood land-values certainly is dependent on who lives there. All those things you cite--infrastructure, public and private investment--mean nothing if people don't want to live there. In the SF Bay Area, tech workers can push up rents in a neighborhood (or set of neighborhoods) faster than in the larger city or larger region.
. . . and all the desire for a particular location is meaningless without things like roads and water.

Anyway, cashed-up tech workers aren't moving to the Tenderloin. They're moving to high amenity neighborhoods that were already wealthy to middle-class.
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Old 07-23-2014, 06:42 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
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Originally Posted by drive carephilly View Post
Anyway, cashed-up tech workers aren't moving to the Tenderloin. They're moving to high amenity neighborhoods that were already wealthy to middle-class.
The Mission was already middle class?
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Old 07-23-2014, 07:14 AM
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Location: Long Island / NYC
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The Mission was already middle class?
the part of the Mission that is very concentrated with tech workers was middle class, or at least never really poor.
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Old 07-23-2014, 10:39 AM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
the part of the Mission that is very concentrated with tech workers was middle class, or at least never really poor.
It was pretty sucky in the 90s (and before). It just didn't fall much after the dot com boom. Valencia was not nice when I was in college. That all started around 2000 give or take.

In the 90s there were lots of gang shootings up and down the corridor, and seeing a drug deal was normal.
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Old 07-23-2014, 10:51 AM
 
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Tech workers in the Mission is a very recent phenomenon, nei. It was traditionally San Francisco's Latino barrio, very poor and very working-class for a long time.
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Old 07-23-2014, 11:15 AM
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Location: Long Island / NYC
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West of Valencia was majority white and not poor.
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Old 07-23-2014, 02:18 PM
 
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In what year?
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Old 07-23-2014, 04:58 PM
 
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Originally Posted by drive carephilly View Post
. . . and all the desire for a particular location is meaningless without things like roads and water.
Point taken, but we take those basic things as given if we're talking about gentrification, which assumes that the neighborhood and, presumably, the infrastructure already exists.
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Old 07-24-2014, 06:38 PM
 
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Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
Point taken, but we take those basic things as given if we're talking about gentrification, which assumes that the neighborhood and, presumably, the infrastructure already exists.
Let me change the cities up for a minute to one I'm more familiar with -

Most or all of Philly has water, roads and electricity. But big parts of it are severely lacking in social infra.
Cops are nowhere to be found, schools are day-time prisons, parks and playgrounds are falling apart, etc. Then the basic economic infrastructure is virtually non-existent, the housing stock is crumbling, the smaller industrial buildings and warehouses are abandoned, there is little to no retail, etc.

This is an extreme example but these place exist and these aren't the places that Philadelphians with money move to.

If you have money you live in Center City or Chestnut Hill or West Mt. Airy. If you're more middle-class then you probably move to some place like Fishtown, East Passyunk or parts of West Philly . . . places that aren't wealthy but certainly aren't poor and already have a reasonable amount of amenities.

The idea that tech workers or anyone else who has the money to live in a nice neighborhood is going to move to a poor, low amenity neighborhood just doesn't work in theory or in reality.

I've been to SF a few times but I'll admit i'm not an expert on the neighborhoods there. If the buses are any judge it would appear that most of them (the thicker lines) are running through parts of SF that aren't well known for being poor.
http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/...ii9lj0kgif.gif
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