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Old 09-19-2014, 07:25 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Long Island / NYC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
A generation is 30 years. Any neighborhood can change in that length of time. 30+ years ago, when we moved to Denver, our neighborhood was considered semi-slummy. Now it's hip.
I meant 20 years by a generation. Most of the former inhabitants leaving in 20 years sounds like flight to me.

Quote:
Chicago has a long history of racism. I can't explain it, have never studied it.
You can find the same patterns in many other big northern cities, Chicago is more extreme than most.
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Old 09-19-2014, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Thunder Bay, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
I don't think that explain neighborhoods that flipped in race within a generation. Usually, many older homeowners would rather stay.

You can find "white flight" in academic literature. Whether they were branded as racists unfairly is irrelevant, in any case, I'm not criticizing those who left for white flight as racists, in the end it would have been a poor choice to stay in many cases. As to the bolded, I know that the white flight neighborhoods (very quick chances in racial composition) tended to be the poorer ones in NYC, many who couldn't afford it. Many weren't moving to suburbs but other city neighborhoods. Perhaps they were the less desirable neighborhoods, but you can find similar neighborhoods where one had a drastic change in white population in a short time.

I'm not sure how else you can explain the extreme patterns of residential segregation. Here's a map of Chicago in 1970:



How would this pattern be created without white flight? If there was a general pattern of moving out to the suburbs, you'd see a much more scattered black population, some variation but not places either almost all or almost none. Instead, one obvious trend is whites moved out where there was some black population and then soon changed to nearly all black. White flight seems like the simplest explanation.
According to the 2006 census, 45% of the Toronto metro area's residents moved in the last 5 years (including 9% that moved from another country). Even if you exclude the international immigrants to see how long it takes for half the residents of a neighbourhood to move out in today's Toronto, it might be about every 7 years. If the people moving out are representative of the neighbourhood's population, but none of the residents moving in are white (lets say all black to make things simpler, and that was the main non-white race in Chicago at that time anyways).

Year 0:
Whites: 8500
Blacks: 1500

In the next 7 years, half the residents move out, 4250 are white, 750 are black, and 5000 blacks move in

Year 7:
Whites: 4250
Blacks: 5750

In the next 7 years, half the residents move out, 2125 are white, 2875 are black, and 5000 blacks move in

Year 14
Whites: 2125
Blacks: 7875

In the next 7 years, half the residents move out, 1062 are white, 3928 are black, and 5000 blacks move in

Year 21
Whites: 1063
Blacks: 8927

In the next 7 years, half the residents move out, 531 are white, 4469 are black, and 5000 blacks move in

Year 28
Whites: 532
Blacks: 9468

So you could theoretically have a neighbourhood go from 85% white to 95% black in 28 years without whites moving out at a rate that is faster than in a non-white flight neighbourhood (today).

I assume people moved less often back then, but even if people moved only half as often (half move every 14 years) you could go from 80% white to 80% black in a 28 year generation. Or half move out every 10 years to fall from 80% white to 20% white in 20 years.

Maybe the question is whether or not it's realistic that no white people would move in - maybe they'd stay if they already live there since they're attached to their home and neighbourhood, but would they move in? I doubt very many white people moved from the suburbs to the city back then, the city was seen as inferior to the suburbs, so if they could afford the suburbs and a car, why move to the city?

I'm not saying there wasn't any white flight (whites moving out faster than the normal rate), but I do wonder if what I described above played a much bigger role than most realize.

Last edited by memph; 09-19-2014 at 08:44 AM..
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:32 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 25 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
I meant 20 years by a generation. Most of the former inhabitants leaving in 20 years sounds like flight to me.



You can find the same patterns in many other big northern cities, Chicago is more extreme than most.
You can call a generation 20 years or 30 years, nevertheless, that's a long time. It's far different from the scenario chirac posted above. Many gentrifying areas of the past 10 years or so were not regarded as anything special 30 years ago.

Chicago has a long history of racism.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:47 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Long Island / NYC
45,992 posts, read 42,026,386 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Katiana View Post
You can call a generation 20 years or 30 years, nevertheless, that's a long time. It's far different from the scenario chirac posted above. Many gentrifying areas of the past 10 years or so were not regarded as anything special 30 years ago.
For most of the population to be replaced is more drastic than just gentrification. Usually many older adults (as in children have grown) who own homes tend to stay put, so something happened in 20 years that made them leave. Many times the neighborhoods that were most likely to lose white population were ones adjacent to minority neighborhoods. Another to check if race played a part is that some neighborhoods that switched from mostly white to mostly didn't always become poor or "semi-slummy". The three most black zip codes in NY state all have median household incomes over $70k/year. Hardly poor, but all 90% black. They were mostly white at one time. Something happened that made the previous residents decide not to stay, nor any white newcomers move in.

Quote:
Chicago has a long history of racism.
I'm aware.
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Old 09-19-2014, 06:53 PM
 
Location: southern california
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white flight did not kill detroit, black flight did.
all your best left ---your talented your smart your gifted. nothing left to help the community.
detroit needs to get tutored by atlanta.
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Old 09-19-2014, 08:35 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948 View Post
white flight did not kill detroit, black flight did.
all your best left ---your talented your smart your gifted. nothing left to help the community.
detroit needs to get tutored by atlanta.
Nah. The black flight was mostly driven by the inability to make a living. The black population of Detroit continued to increase until 1990.

White flight was much earlier and consistent over the years. Started in 1950 and continues until today.

Detroit was killed by the auto business decline. But whites helped.
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Old 09-19-2014, 11:37 PM
Status: "Summer!" (set 25 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
I'm actually kind of a mall Nerd, most of the Malls that were/ or still are major players even in Midsized cities were built in the mid to late 60s. The trend of malls started going viral (forgive the expression) after the success of the malls built in the 50s.
Not in my neck of the woods.
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Old 09-21-2014, 03:37 PM
 
Location: southern california
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lvoc View Post
Nah. The black flight was mostly driven by the inability to make a living. The black population of Detroit continued to increase until 1990.

White flight was much earlier and consistent over the years. Started in 1950 and continues until today.

Detroit was killed by the auto business decline. But whites helped.
auto biz did not "decline" any more than steel industry "declined"
unions got lazy and greedy i was part of it all. they all moved out of the country. that is the true story of the "decline".
i have slept in the control tower and got paid OT just like the rest of them. i was there.
that is why you have no steel or auto jobs in america my friend not bek of the "decline".
its easy to blame white flight for all your sorrows that makes it easier to move into a rich white neighborhood and forget all the people you left behind. all the skilled people in the community moved on up and out. they are gone to live on the other side of the tracks. all that are left are those that are on assistance and those that prey on them.
you dont have white flight you got rich man flight.

Last edited by Huckleberry3911948; 09-21-2014 at 03:46 PM..
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Old 09-21-2014, 06:56 PM
 
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Detroit didn't decline because of the auto industry. While Detroit shrank it's suburbs exploded and the auto industry experienced many record years. Manufacturing shifted south, but high tech jobs grew. If it were the auto industry the whole region would have suffered. That only happened in the 2000s, and since the restructure it's already started to reverse.
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Old 09-21-2014, 07:32 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mjlo View Post
Detroit didn't decline because of the auto industry. While Detroit shrank it's suburbs exploded and the auto industry experienced many record years. Manufacturing shifted south, but high tech jobs grew. If it were the auto industry the whole region would have suffered. That only happened in the 2000s, and since the restructure it's already started to reverse.
Some of you folk just refuse to deal with the obvious.

Detroit was a victim of vast changes in the auto industry and its surrounding support industry. The auto guys and their suppliers moved from Detroit to green fields in the suburbs, other places in the more rural midwest and the sunbelt. In the later period they also got creamed by the Japanese.

All that carved the soul out of Detroit.

And the racial thing was in there and working hard. Remember in the years after 1950 it was the whites attacking the blacks...later the blacks riot...but initially it was the battle of block busting. The whites began moving out in 1950 and kept going to this day. Even in the days when it was the black heads getting broken.

Sure the politicians screwed it up. The black politicians once in control kicked the can down the road...just like the white guys before them. But all were riding the tiger not leading it.

Here is a reasonable concise history of the decline of Detroit.

Motor City: The Story of Detroit | The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History

I am not sure we should turn this thread into a Detroit one but if you wish to deal with the decline of the rust belt cities their just is no other poster child.

And like all really good stereotypes it has something for everybody.
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