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Old 09-22-2014, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
12,427 posts, read 11,929,235 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Embedded in the parking debate is the question whether new apartments - with or without parking - advance gentrification.
This is tough to say, since we don't have a machine which can travel to alternate universes to see the outcome. I'd say that if you're looking at almost strictly residential areas, new apartments will not substantially contribute to gentrification. Residential neighborhoods generally only gentrify for factors intrinsic to the neighborhood (great historic housing stock, or relatively good schools, for example), and apartments do not cause prices to rise. Indeed, the apartments increase the housing supply, which should cause demand to drop - at least, demand for older, rattier apartments within the neighborhood.

The calculation is different if there is a nearby commercial district however. In this case new upscale apartments mean more people with disposable income within walking distance. As a result, the local business mix changes, which makes the neighborhood more attractive to further middle-class people as a potential place to live.
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Old 09-22-2014, 09:36 AM
 
33,046 posts, read 22,062,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
This is tough to say, since we don't have a machine which can travel to alternate universes to see the outcome. I'd say that if you're looking at almost strictly residential areas, new apartments will not substantially contribute to gentrification. Residential neighborhoods generally only gentrify for factors intrinsic to the neighborhood (great historic housing stock, or relatively good schools, for example), and apartments do not cause prices to rise. Indeed, the apartments increase the housing supply, which should cause demand to drop - at least, demand for older, rattier apartments within the neighborhood.

The calculation is different if there is a nearby commercial district however. In this case new upscale apartments mean more people with disposable income within walking distance. As a result, the local business mix changes, which makes the neighborhood more attractive to further middle-class people as a potential place to live.

??? Rents on the new apartments are vastly higher than in the old apartments; it appears that the old ratty apartments are not filtering down as rapidly as newcomers are driving up rents.

Specifically, the city is really dividing into Two Portlands, many neighborhoods are gentrifying (and are at various stages of the process) while the displaced former residents are aggregating in a cesspool of poverty sometimes called 'outer East Portland'.

Just look at this map esp the solid brown east end:

http://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/gentrification/
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Old 09-22-2014, 09:52 AM
 
15,734 posts, read 9,253,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
??? Shrug, I've worked hard and have sacrificed for decades. (Kinda why I have $10K of inventory and no cash, I take advantage of great deals to make money down the road and serve my customers better.) My life is a saga of delayed gratification.
That's not sacrifice, that's just spending money. You say you have customers? If you had customers, you'd have NO inventory and lots of cash.

And how exactly have you sacrificed? You've decided that being in management is "too hard", you won't go back to school unless someone else pays for it or you can borrow the money on your terms, and you don't move someplace that might help you get ahead because it's not convenient.

Living poor by choice is NOT sacrifice. Giving something up that you have, in order to get what you really want, is sacrifice.
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Old 09-22-2014, 09:54 AM
 
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Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Need a free market to be able to afford to buy...all I can afford is 2,500 sq ft of land with a tiny house. Generally not available due to minimum lot size requirements.

Zoning is largely about exclusion, and exclusion of the poor and/or undesirable. Kinda like class warfare from top down.
Again, I scoff. You can't pay rent on a crappy room in a crappy neighborhood in a crappy house. All your wishing won't change that fact that if this fantasy situation actually did turn up, you would NEVER be able to afford that either.
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Old 09-22-2014, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Rents on the new apartments are vastly higher than in the old apartments; it appears that the old ratty apartments are not filtering down as rapidly as newcomers are driving up rents.
Of course rents on new apartments will be higher than the old apartments. Developers want to make their money back, after all. But while new apartments should drive up average rental rates in the neighborhood, as I said, provided there are no nearby walkable amenities to become "hipsterized" there really isn't any reason why it should also cause the old, ratty apartments to rise in price as well. It could result in pressure on those landlords to fix up their apartment buildings however (to compete for tenants), or some subdivided houses to be turned back into single-family housing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Specifically, the city is really dividing into Two Portlands, many neighborhoods are gentrifying (and are at various stages of the process) while the displaced former residents are aggregating in a cesspool of poverty sometimes called 'outer East Portland'.

Just look at this map esp the solid brown east end:

http://projects.oregonlive.com/maps/gentrification/
Why are there "Landing Zones" right near Downtown as well? I would have figured those areas would be prime.
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Old 09-22-2014, 10:21 AM
 
33,046 posts, read 22,062,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ringwise View Post
That's not sacrifice, that's just spending money. You say you have customers? If you had customers, you'd have NO inventory and lots of cash.

And how exactly have you sacrificed? You've decided that being in management is "too hard", you won't go back to school unless someone else pays for it or you can borrow the money on your terms, and you don't move someplace that might help you get ahead because it's not convenient.

Living poor by choice is NOT sacrifice. Giving something up that you have, in order to get what you really want, is sacrifice.

??? I have online customers, eBay, Etsy, Amazon...but my dysfunctional living situation has me keeping my inventory in storage and I have to lug it to a friend's (on his schedule of course, not that there's anything wrong with that) for pictures before I can list it.

Everyone else can do all their selling right out of their home; I have to do everything the hard complicated, and time-consuming way.

If I could do it all from home I'd be selling $500+ a week.

I'm giving up present consumption for something of value that will bring a profit when I sell it, sheesh.
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Old 09-22-2014, 10:35 AM
 
15,734 posts, read 9,253,176 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
??? I have online customers, eBay, Etsy, Amazon...but my dysfunctional living situation has me keeping my inventory in storage and I have to lug it to a friend's (on his schedule of course, not that there's anything wrong with that) for pictures before I can list it.

Everyone else can do all their selling right out of their home; I have to do everything the hard complicated, and time-consuming way.

If I could do it all from home I'd be selling $500+ a week.

I'm giving up present consumption for something of value that will bring a profit when I sell it, sheesh.
And if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a bus.

You act like a) you're the only one that has a complicated and time-consuming life, and b) that you had nothing to do with that situation.

I will repeat, if your business was THAT successful, you'd already be out of your tiny space, and into a larger one. No matter how complicated the logistics are.

It's always "one thing"....that one thing that is keeping you down (not you in particular, but those that always have an excuse as to why their brilliant business ideas don't pan out)
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Old 09-22-2014, 11:06 AM
 
33,046 posts, read 22,062,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Of course rents on new apartments will be higher than the old apartments. Developers want to make their money back, after all. But while new apartments should drive up average rental rates in the neighborhood, as I said, provided there are no nearby walkable amenities to become "hipsterized" there really isn't any reason why it should also cause the old, ratty apartments to rise in price as well. It could result in pressure on those landlords to fix up their apartment buildings however (to compete for tenants), or some subdivided houses to be turned back into single-family housing.



Why are there "Landing Zones" right near Downtown as well? I would have figured those areas would be prime.

The "landiing zone" west of the river is the Old Town neighborhood (which includes Chinatown and is sometimes called Old Town-Chinatown). It is immediately north of downtown and is home to a cluster of social service organizations, especially those that serve the homeless. Has a reputation for open air drug dealing during the day but especially after dark. Has long been a distressed neighborhood, with some neighborhood business owners and real estate interests think iit should be prime; they're hoping to make money redeveloping the neighborhood e.g. they're hoping the city development agency will pony up some money. the neighborhood is not near the tipping point at which the poor will be pushed out quickly, but some are trying to nudge it in that direction.

The landing zone a bit northwest of downtown is the part of Northwest Portland immediately south of the Northwest Industrial District; older housing and some blue-collar type businesses..

In between the above two landing zones is the Pearl District, which once was a warehouse-type area, but has been largely redeveloped with very expensive condos and apartments; a number of upscale creative-type businesses have taken up office space in the neighborhood, probably with their employees in mind.

The landing zone east of the river is the Central Eastside Industrial District which is largely warehouses and has some scattered houses. Don't know much about that area but it's not highly populated.

I live in the white space east of the bottom tier of brown, it's not a landing zone because there are few apartments, it's not even remotely walkable, and the houses are mostly owner-occupied and unlikely to convert to rental anytime soon.
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Old 09-22-2014, 12:42 PM
 
741 posts, read 725,487 times
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There is nothing you can do about gentrification, particularly in areas of extreme vogue and desirability (like Portland). Young trendsetters move to places and the formerly cheap areas are remade in their image, becoming not cheap anymore. Brooklyn and Harlem in New York, all of San Francisco, the South Loop or Boystown in Chicago, to a lesser extent places Austin and LA, have all been down this road.

Gentrification can't be stopped (in practical terms, unless you instituted some completely asinine reverse-discriminatory housing law) but the bigger issue is housing affordability, which is often stymied by bad zoning policies driven by BANANAs (Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone). The great irony is that the people who are usually so stridently opposed to THE GREEDY BIG BUSINESS LANDLORDS AND THEIR GREEDY 1% WAYS DESTROYING THE ENVIRONMENT AND LOCAL ECOSYSTEM!!! don't realize that they're sealing their own fate by driving housing prices to the moon whenever they oppose high density development (or, any development)

Affordable Living and regular, high density development
Unaffordable housing and limited, low density development.

You can pick one.
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Old 09-22-2014, 05:31 PM
 
2,553 posts, read 2,005,466 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freemkt View Post
Profit motive is fine and great under unconstrained market conditions. In cities with tight land supply and thus high land prices, profit motive renders new development out of reach of even remotely affordable housing, and causes rents to necessarily skyrocket.
It takes very tall construction (tall=expensive) for this argument to hold true. For most cities, they are not anywhere near the heights for this to be true.

The most pressing problem with development is the myriad limitations and fees which cities place on developments. If a cities defines what can be built and where, if it takes years to get approval, with much guesswork as to what will eventually get the OK, and strict EIRs, and dev & impact fees, then the government, not the market, has limited supply and inflated costs.
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