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Old 10-08-2014, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
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The problem with this study, is that the baseline is the state each city is in. For Chicago, the baseline is Illinois which has had relatively stagnant population, so any growth in Chicago looks good by comparison. On the other hand, sunbelt cities are in rapidly growing sunbelt states, so the denominator of state growth is quite high.
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Old 10-08-2014, 06:25 PM
 
Location: Thunder Bay, ON
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Looking at Toronto, while in the downtown the growth is largely driven by young adults (although other age groups are growing too), in many of the other neighbourhoods, the population of young adults is not increasing and even decreasing. This includes rapidly gentrifying areas. In these cases, it's often older adults (40-70) that are increasing, and sometimes even the number of children.
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Old 10-08-2014, 06:53 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Read it here.

Basically they looked at the migration of college-educated people from 2000 to 2012 into cities as a proxy for gentrification. They chose to look at three groups of cities: magnet cities, sunbelt cities, and legacy cities. Magnet basically equals cities everyone agrees are gentrifying, and legacy means rustbelt. They broke down college-educated adults in to four groups 25-34 (top demographic for gentrification), 35-44 (which they identify as a proxy for parents in childrearing years), 45-64, and 65+.

For each city, they took a look at three metrics. First, a ratio of the number of college-educated people in that bracket compared to the state at large for 2012. Then, the same ratio for 2000. Finally, what percentage of the numeric growth in the total state population of college-educated folks was captured within the state by said city.

In terms of 25-34 year olds (millennials) all of the "magnet cities" showed significant growth. In the sunbelt only Atlanta and to a lesser extent Miami showed appeal, with Dallas, Phoenix, and Las Vegas showing little appeal. In the rust belt Baltimore, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Saint Louis attract millennials, but the rest do not.

Younger gen-Xers show attraction to a more limited set of cities. To a certain extent they like most of the "magnet cities" - but less than millennials. They are not moving to the Sun Belt except for Atlanta and Miami (growth in Gen-Xers is stronger than millennials in Miami). No rust-belt city other than Saint Louis was found to have gained significant numbers in this demographic.

In terms of the over 45 college-educated demographics, they both behave the same - they just don't seem to like cities, and don't seem to be returning to them. They don't particularly like any cities in the rust belt or the sun belt. They seem to be moving to Seattle, San Francisco, and Austin to a certain degree, but that's about it. There's no evidence that "empty nesters" are going into cities.
First of all as a person who grew up in St Louis, then I'm glad to see my old home town is attracting young blood, and I'm surprise. I wonder which companies attracts millennials? I know Boeing has expanded, but I'm not familiar with Monsanto, Express Scripts, or the Financial Industry expanding rapidly in the area. Second, I'm surprise Chicago isn't on the list. I know a lot of young people who has moved to the Chicago area.

Finally with the older people leaving cities, then that makes sense. One, they prefer to have more land and a house. That is a very expensive dream in a city like Chicago until you get into the outer burbs. Then from personal experience my dad got burned out with the traffic in his commute in St Louis, and enjoys how he has a 10 minute drive from home to work in Jefferson City. He also likes how he can go home for lunch and fix a hot meal compared to being stuck at an office breakroom. I think after 20 years of commuting in a city can burn some people out for good.
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Old 10-08-2014, 06:54 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oakparkdude View Post
The problem with this study, is that the baseline is the state each city is in. For Chicago, the baseline is Illinois which has had relatively stagnant population, so any growth in Chicago looks good by comparison. On the other hand, sunbelt cities are in rapidly growing sunbelt states, so the denominator of state growth is quite high.
That is a good point. I'm surprised Chicago isn't on the list since I personally know a lot of young people who have moved into the region in recent years, including me. That said, the population has been stagnant or decreasing, but it's more of the older folk leaving.
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Old 10-08-2014, 06:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by nei View Post
I wonder why they chose Brooklyn but not Manhattan? Both Brooklyn and Chicago were near the bottom of the list for an increase in college educated "Millenialials" as they're both large with lots of non-gentrifying areas.
I know Brooklyn has become a hip/young area, but it's still somewhat reasonable to live there. The cost of living in Manhattan is astronomical compared to Brooklyn, and Brooklyn still has some old charm to it with their brick buildings and boutique shops and restaurants. In Manhattan half of it is skyscrapers compared to two to four story buildings in Brooklyn.
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Old 10-08-2014, 07:07 PM
 
Location: Thunder Bay, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Looking at Toronto, while in the downtown the growth is largely driven by young adults (although other age groups are growing too), in many of the other neighbourhoods, the population of young adults is not increasing and even decreasing. This includes rapidly gentrifying areas. In these cases, it's often older adults (40-70) that are increasing, and sometimes even the number of children.
For example, Toronto Danforth

Age Group: Population in 2006 to Population in 2011 (% Change)

0-19: 20,825 to 20,370 (-2.2%)
20-39: 32,950 to 32,025 (-2.8%)
40-59: 33,010 to 32,885 (-0.4%)
60-79: 13,470 to 15,180 (+12.7%)
80+: 3,405 to 3,550 (+4.3%)
Total: 103,660 to 104,010 (+0.3%)

Median Family Income
2006: $62,115
2011: $84,026
Change: +35%

Median Household Income
2006: $52,052
2011: $62,599
Change: +20%

% of Population aged 15 and above with Bachelor+
2006: 29.5%
2011: 36.0%
Change: +22%

Compare to Ontario
0-19: +0.0%
20-39: +3.0%
40-59: +5.0%
60-79: +18.8%
80+: +17.2%
Total: +5.7%

Median Family Income
2006: $69,156
2011: $80,987
Change: +17%

Median Household Income
2006: $60,455
2011: $66,358
Change: +9.8%

% of Population aged 15 and above with Bachelor+
2006: 20.5%
2011: 23.3%
Change: +13.7%

So income and educational attainment is not only increasing but increasing significantly faster than the provincial average. It does seem like the neighbourhood is gentrifying, despite essentially no change in population. Although the younger age groups experienced declined slightly in population, older age groups increased, which is largely consistent with the provincial trend (most of the increase in older age groups, only a little growth in younger age groups).

(btw, incomes are unadjusted for inflation, adjusting for inflation, median household income has been basically flat in Ontario)
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Old 10-08-2014, 07:42 PM
 
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Originally Posted by panderson1988 View Post
I know Brooklyn has become a hip/young area, but it's still somewhat reasonable to live there. The cost of living in Manhattan is astronomical compared to Brooklyn, and Brooklyn still has some old charm to it with their brick buildings and boutique shops and restaurants. In Manhattan half of it is skyscrapers compared to two to four story buildings in Brooklyn.
You'd be surprised, I know people who went looking for apartments in the hip/young part of Brooklyn and ended up in Manhattan because it was cheaper. The core area of Williamsburg has gotten more expensive than the Manhattan stops along the L. Park Slope, Downtown Brooklyn, Greenpoint, etc. are also more expensive than some Manhattan neighborhoods south of Harlem.
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Old 10-08-2014, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA (Morningside)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oakparkdude View Post
The problem with this study, is that the baseline is the state each city is in. For Chicago, the baseline is Illinois which has had relatively stagnant population, so any growth in Chicago looks good by comparison. On the other hand, sunbelt cities are in rapidly growing sunbelt states, so the denominator of state growth is quite high.
Remember, the study doesn't look at growth in population demographics directly, but only the college educated subset. This is important, because the Sunbelt has disproportionately attracted migrants without college degrees (both international immigrants and domestic migrants).
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Old 10-08-2014, 08:27 PM
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Location: Long Island / NYC
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Remember, the study doesn't look at growth in population demographics directly, but only the college educated subset. This is important, because the Sunbelt has disproportionately attracted migrants without college degrees (both international immigrants and domestic migrants).
The immigrants that "magnet cities" get aren't particularly educated, I doubt much different than sunbelt cities. Exception might be a few areas like some of Silicon Valley.
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Old 10-08-2014, 11:42 PM
 
Location: Chicago - Logan Square
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I need to spend time looking at this more thoroughly, but one thing quickly came to mind when looking at Boston - since the downturn in the economy there have been more people choosing to return to (or stay in) school. That could help to explain Boston's high performance in the younger demographic without a similar one in older demographics.

I'm also curious as to what boundaries they used. Boston by itself seems to be an arbitrary boundary when you consider how tied in it is to Cambridge and Brookline. Even if you included those two towns you'd still have an area that is less than half the size of Chicago and just over a tenth the size of Phoenix.

Last edited by Attrill; 10-09-2014 at 12:24 AM..
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