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Old 02-06-2015, 09:32 AM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,287,970 times
Reputation: 3827

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Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The decades of lag is part of the hypotheses. Children are exposed to exhaust, and then once they hit their teens/20s, they turn towards serious criminal behavior.

Also, as the article notes, the lead from exhaust stays in the soil essentially forever without remediation, getting kicked up every summer. Thus if you play outside in an urban area (even today) you will get some lead exposure.
Since countries around the world banned leaded gasoline at different times, you have about as perfect a natural experiment as you can get. The countries which first banned lead saw the first decreases in crime, with about a 20 year lag. This 20 year lag in falling crime rates holds true pretty much for every country studied, despite a wide variation in time of lead ban. Obviously, these different countries have widely different policies regarding education, health, gun laws, and abortion rights.

Even when you look within the USA, individual states had varying rates of consumption of leaded gasoline use in the 1970 and 1980s, and the state crime statistics pretty much follow the same trend.

The data is amazingly robust. You can slice the data many ways: by country, by state, by neighborhood, and even by individual. The same correlation holds true that higher levels of lead exposure during childhood results in higher levels of crime in young adulthood.
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:38 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,003 posts, read 102,592,596 times
Reputation: 33059
Quote:
Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The decades of lag is part of the hypotheses. Children are exposed to exhaust, and then once they hit their teens/20s, they turn towards serious criminal behavior.

Also, as the article notes, the lead from exhaust stays in the soil essentially forever without remediation, getting kicked up every summer. Thus if you play outside in an urban area (even today) you will get some lead exposure.
Childhood, adulthood, whatever. Most people spend most of their day INSIDE. Yes, playing in contaminated dirt isn't good. Although then there are the "hygiene hypothesis" folks who think it is good for you! But criminal behavior is not a symptom of lead poisoning.
Lead poisoning Definition - Diseases and Conditions - Mayo Clinic
"Lead poisoning symptoms in children

The signs and symptoms of lead poisoning in children may include:

Developmental delay
Learning difficulties
Irritability
Loss of appetite
Weight loss
Sluggishness and fatigue
Abdominal pain
Vomiting
Constipation
Hearing loss

Lead poisoning symptoms in newborns

Babies who are exposed to lead before birth may experience:

Learning difficulties
Slowed growth

Lead poisoning symptoms in adults

Although children are primarily at risk, lead poisoning is also dangerous for adults. Signs and symptoms in adults may include:

High blood pressure
Abdominal pain
Constipation
Joint pains
Muscle pain
Declines in mental functioning
Pain, numbness or tingling of the extremities
Headache
Memory loss
Mood disorders
Reduced sperm count, abnormal sperm
Miscarriage or premature birth in pregnant women"


You urbanists with no health science background tend to get going on all sorts of, well, strange, odd-ball stuff that I've never heard of before. People are more likely to get exposed to lead in their homes. (Read the full Mayo article.)
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:39 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,003 posts, read 102,592,596 times
Reputation: 33059
Quote:
Originally Posted by oakparkdude View Post
Since countries around the world banned leaded gasoline at different times, you have about as perfect a natural experiment as you can get. The countries which first banned lead saw the first decreases in crime, with about a 20 year lag. This 20 year lag in falling crime rates holds true pretty much for every country studied, despite a wide variation in time of lead ban. Obviously, these different countries have widely different policies regarding education, health, gun laws, and abortion rights.

Even when you look within the USA, individual states had varying rates of consumption of leaded gasoline use in the 1970 and 1980s, and the state crime statistics pretty much follow the same trend.

The data is amazingly robust. You can slice the data many ways: by country, by state, by neighborhood, and even by individual. The same correlation holds true that higher levels of lead exposure during childhood results in higher levels of crime in young adulthood.
CORRELATION does not equal CAUSATION!!!
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,287,970 times
Reputation: 3827
Quote:
Originally Posted by FallsAngel View Post
Childhood, adulthood, whatever. Most people spend most of their day INSIDE. Yes, playing in contaminated dirt isn't good. Although then there are the "hygiene hypothesis" folks who think it is good for you! But criminal behavior is not a symptom of lead poisoning.
Lead poisoning Definition - Diseases and Conditions - Mayo Clinic
"Lead poisoning symptoms in children

The signs and symptoms of lead poisoning in children may include:

Developmental delay
Learning difficulties
Irritability
Loss of appetite
Weight loss
Sluggishness and fatigue
Abdominal pain
Vomiting
Constipation
Hearing loss

Lead poisoning symptoms in newborns

Babies who are exposed to lead before birth may experience:

Learning difficulties
Slowed growth

Lead poisoning symptoms in adults

Although children are primarily at risk, lead poisoning is also dangerous for adults. Signs and symptoms in adults may include:

High blood pressure
Abdominal pain
Constipation
Joint pains
Muscle pain
Declines in mental functioning
Pain, numbness or tingling of the extremities
Headache
Memory loss
Mood disorders
Reduced sperm count, abnormal sperm
Miscarriage or premature birth in pregnant women"


You urbanists with no health science background tend to get going on all sorts of, well, strange, odd-ball stuff that I've never heard of before. People are more likely to get exposed to lead in their homes. (Read the full Mayo article.)
FWI, I'm in the health profession, I've reviewed some of the primary data, and I'm a believer.
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:41 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,003 posts, read 102,592,596 times
Reputation: 33059
Quote:
Originally Posted by oakparkdude View Post
FWI, I'm in the health profession.
Then you should know better than to confuse correlation with causation, and to accept "Mother Jones" as a research journal. I had a suspicion you were a HP because you talked about ethics.
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,287,970 times
Reputation: 3827
Quote:
Originally Posted by FallsAngel View Post
Then you should know better than to confuse correlation with causation, and to accept "Mother Jones" as a research journal. I had a suspicion you were a HP because you talked about ethics.
I don't accept MJ as a research journal, which is why I went to some of the primary sources. Obviously you're free to believe whatever you want, but I've looked at the data, as well as some of the competing hypotheses, and the lead hypothesis seems to be the most compelling.

BTW, as I'm sure you know, there are lots of correlations in medicine/health that can not be proven as causal due to ethical constraints. However, when the correlation holds up in different countries, different states, and even different neighborhoods, its hard to dismiss out of hand as pure bollix.
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Old 02-06-2015, 09:55 AM
 
Location: Oak Park, IL
5,522 posts, read 12,287,970 times
Reputation: 3827
To try to tie this back to the original topic, one under appreciated factor in the suburbanization of the US after WW2 was the sheer level of pollution in older US cities. All those factories humming along belched out huge amounts of pollution of the air, water, and ground. Most of those factories are now gone, and environmental standards have helped decrease the pollution of still existing factories.

Nowadays you can still complain about the crowds and the noises, but the exposure to truly life-shortening toxins is pretty much eliminated.

Last edited by oakparkdude; 02-06-2015 at 10:11 AM..
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Old 02-06-2015, 11:07 AM
 
Location: Youngstown, Oh.
4,896 posts, read 7,657,858 times
Reputation: 4508
Quote:
Originally Posted by IC_deLight View Post
Going back to the topic of this thread - one of the biggest failures of urbanists is failure to recognize the importance of schools to families. FallsAngel and others have been telling you this for years. (Seems to be an area of convenient blindness for urbanists)
Not sure how you came to this conclusion.

Quote:
Austin, Texas is one of the fastest growing areas of the country. School districts are "independent" of other political subdivisions of the state in Texas. One is not able to simply attend a school that is in a district other than where one resides.
Ohio is this way too. Some districts will offer "open enrollment," where they allow students from other districts in, but the district offering open enrollment retains control of which students, and how many students are allowed in, which also sounds similar to what you describe.

Quote:
Yet the Austin Independent School District has recently announced a policy of allowing transfers in of students from the larger Austin metro area (i.e., metro area of the city which encompasses areas much larger/outside the school district). At the same time, AISD announced which schools are not open to transfer. The schools that are not open to transfer are all in areas that urbanists snidely denigrate as "suburbs". The ones that are open are the schools in the "urban areas".
From some comments in the thread you linked to, it sounds like the magnet/special program schools are the ones that are open to outside students. If the district was just concerned with declining enrollment, wouldn't they open all of their schools to outside students?

Quote:
Point is that although some hipsters, DINKs, SINKs, and others might find downtown living appealing - it just isn't appealing for families (or most of the rest of the population either). Hence the enrollment in the downtown area schools is dropping even though the area's population is dramatically rising. Downtown is "family unfriendly" and families know it. Can the urbanists figure it out?

AISD Enrollment Now Available To Everyone In Austin Metro

Declining enrollment prompts AISD new transfer policy
Although I don't agree that all families will always find urban living unappealing, I will play devil's advocate, and ask why this is a problem. It's obvious from this forum that the stereotypical suburban/exurban environment isn't appealing to everyone. Yet, there are far fewer threads asking how these stereotypical suburban/exurban communities can change, to make themselves more appealing to the "hipsters, DINKs, SINKs, and others" that find urban living appealing.
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Old 02-06-2015, 11:17 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 19 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
87,003 posts, read 102,592,596 times
Reputation: 33059
Quote:
Originally Posted by JR_C View Post
Not sure how you came to this conclusion.

OMG! I've been told to "shut up" about schools many times on this forum. I've read posts like "I don't care about schools. Schools don't have anything to do with urban planning, except determining the site. (This from you, I believe, and that's one thing cities don't have much control over. The school districts own the land, and most zoning allows schools by right.) What can I do about schools?" I have in fact made suggestions about what people could do about schools even if they don't have kids, but the vast majority don't seem to care. I can get people not having education as their major interest, but schools are essential to the health of cities.

Ohio is this way too. Some districts will offer "open enrollment," where they allow students from other districts in, but the district offering open enrollment retains control of which students, and how many students are allowed in, which also sounds similar to what you describe.

Colorado has state wide open enrollment, but districts can set preferences. Some schools will be closed to OE b/c they are full.

From some comments in the thread you linked to, it sounds like the magnet/special program schools are the ones that are open to outside students. If the district was just concerned with declining enrollment, wouldn't they open all of their schools to outside students?

You can never figure out what school administrators are thinking!

Although I don't agree that all families will always find urban living unappealing, I will play devil's advocate, and ask why this is a problem. It's obvious from this forum that the stereotypical suburban/exurban environment isn't appealing to everyone. Yet, there are far fewer threads asking how these stereotypical suburban/exurban communities can change, to make themselves more appealing to the "hipsters, DINKs, SINKs, and others" that find urban living appealing.
Probably b/c there are fewer of us suburbanites. I'd be glad to participate in such a thread.
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Old 02-06-2015, 01:02 PM
 
1,998 posts, read 2,933,119 times
Reputation: 2150
Just because suburbs are more popular places to raise a family than cities does not mean that cities are inherently unappealing to any family. There are still millions of kids being raised in New York, San Francisco, DC, Chicago, and other big dense cities. Are they outnumbered by kids in the suburbs? Yes. Does that mean none of those families in the city want to be there and they all wish they were in the suburbs? No.
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