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Old 11-24-2015, 03:58 PM
 
Location: Vallejo
14,061 posts, read 16,070,870 times
Reputation: 12636

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Quote:
Originally Posted by darkeconomist View Post
I keep pointing back to the overall trend. I haven't denied that it's gone up recently, but I do deny that uptick necessarily supports an overall, ongoing increase. I deny it, not because of belief, but because the data doesn't support that view.

Do you have evidence that there is an ongoing trend that VMT is accelerating faster than the driving-age population is growing? Because that would suggest recent increases are more than just a catching up to the pre-recession, pre-subprime boom trend (ie, the current natural rate) as the economy improves. If you have it, I'd gladly read it. So far, the data I've seen from government agencies suggests an overall flattening of the VMT/cap curve or, at least, no net acceleration of the VMT/cap rate.
Yup.

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

That's analysis from government data as cited. Big net acceleration in the end of 2014 and through the end of data in 2015. How long will that trend continue? Dunno. While I don't claim to have a crystal ball, my opinion is that it won't continue for very long. My opinion is that it will normalize somewhere below the previous peak VMT per capita or whatever logical subset of per capita is used. I could be wrong about that just as all the people who proclaimed we'd hit peak car were wrong.

Last edited by Malloric; 11-24-2015 at 04:11 PM..
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Old 11-24-2015, 05:06 PM
 
2,553 posts, read 2,004,178 times
Reputation: 1348
Quote:
Originally Posted by Malloric View Post
Yup.

Vehicle Miles Traveled: Another Look at Our Evolving Behavior - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

That's analysis from government data as cited. Big net acceleration in the end of 2014 and through the end of data in 2015. How long will that trend continue? Dunno. While I don't claim to have a crystal ball, my opinion is that it won't continue for very long. My opinion is that it will normalize somewhere below the previous peak VMT per capita or whatever logical subset of per capita is used. I could be wrong about that just as all the people who proclaimed we'd hit peak car were wrong.
Wow. That's a nice analysis. The key point is the following chart, which adjusts for population over 16 and is indexed to January of 1971. I like how the author also overlayed VMT on to real gas prices on a different chart.

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Old 11-25-2015, 11:39 AM
Status: "Summer!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Foot of the Rockies
86,992 posts, read 102,568,112 times
Reputation: 33058
Quote:
Originally Posted by hurricaneMan1992 View Post
Thanks for clarifying, guys. Apparently the "baby bust" among millennials has been somewhat over hyped. Although our country and our cities are definitely changing due to immigration and the increasing gap between the "haves" and the "have nots."
Yes. That is the point I was trying to make, despite a few digressions.
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