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Ok, we're at 2 years out from the initial pandemic here. Looks like the initial prediction is pretty much correct - expansion, money, and infrastructure expansions in CBDs across the country are heavily muted from the 2010s. The "coastal elite" cities are suffering the worst, as only makes sense cause they were already unaffordable.
From this article, The 5 day workweek is dead, office attendance is just 33% of what it was pre pandemic. That's a bigger drop than most of the initial posters probably would have forecasted we'd be at. Companies can state policies all they want, but it looks pretty unlikely that we're ever going to get back to 66% of office workers back in their seat for the 5 day week. We're now winding down stimulus lifelines, and CBD businesses are shuttering while transit can't get ridership back.
With the supply chain issues and essentially frozen / broken housing market, we can't see what the new normal is gonna be, there's not that construction wave yet, that's coming later this decade. Lot's of millennials staking out their future are just in the wait it out phase right now.
Id think transit expansions largely won't happen for this decade, they'll just be lucky to keep the existing network afloat. Traffic should get worse, but there's more flexibility so rush hour might be muted. Midrise development will likely continue, but I can't imagine we'd see anything substantial in the high rise department, especially given the affordability bottleneck now and a backdrop of higher rates.
I don't know about other places so much and I understand that SF got cheaper, but I live in NYC and it doesn't seem there are fewer people living in NYC now. Residential rent prices are hitting previous and new highs again despite construction being among the first industries to resume in the city and a lot of new developments have opened since the start of the pandemic. Office buildings are certainly not at full occupancy as commuters including those commuting from outside of the city in aren't coming in as large of numbers, but people on net don't seem to be moving away from this city. I'm personally lucky enough to own, but a lot of people I know don't. They've got really high rent prices to deal with that seem to be going further up despite all the construction, so hopefully a large amount of office space gets converted into residential usage quickly. Office-heavy Midtown can especially use it as having more people living there would make those storefronts viable again--along with commercial storefront landlords finally lowering their rent prices.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 03-02-2022 at 10:28 PM..
I don't know about other places so much and I understand that SF got cheaper, but I live in NYC and it doesn't seem there are fewer people living in NYC now. Residential rent prices are hitting previous and new highs again despite construction being among the first industries to resume in the city and a lot of new developments have opened since the start of the pandemic. Office buildings are certainly not at full occupancy as commuters including those commuting from outside of the city in aren't coming in as large of numbers, but people on net don't seem to be moving away from this city. I'm personally lucky enough to own, but a lot of people I know don't. They've got really high rent prices to deal with that seem to be going further up despite all the construction, so hopefully a large amount of office space gets converted into residential usage quickly. Office-heavy Midtown can especially use it as having more people living there would make those storefronts viable again--along with commercial storefront landlords finally lowering their rent prices.
Because of how loans for rental buildings are structured, rents tend to be sticky. The loans are based on the amount of rental income the building is expected to generate, and thus lowering the rents could put the loans in default.
This is why landlords who wish to cut rents do so by offering free months of rent rather than a reduction in the monthly rent. Or so I've heard.
New rental buildings continue to go up here in Philadelphia. This, however, is the first year that the 10-year tax abatement for new construction and improvements got cut in half (the amount of the abatement now decreases 10 percent per year over the 10 years), so most observers expect the pace of new permits to fall.
Because of how loans for rental buildings are structured, rents tend to be sticky. The loans are based on the amount of rental income the building is expected to generate, and thus lowering the rents could put the loans in default.
This is why landlords who wish to cut rents do so by offering free months of rent rather than a reduction in the monthly rent. Or so I've heard.
New rental buildings continue to go up here in Philadelphia. This, however, is the first year that the 10-year tax abatement for new construction and improvements got cut in half (the amount of the abatement now decreases 10 percent per year over the 10 years), so most observers expect the pace of new permits to fall.
Yep, that's what a lot of landlords, especially of larger new construction, did during the early parts of the pandemic where you got two, three, or even four months of "free" rent. However, that's over in NYC now and the renewal rates came back with a vengeance.
I don't know about other places so much and I understand that SF got cheaper, but I live in NYC and it doesn't seem there are fewer people living in NYC now. Residential rent prices are hitting previous and new highs again despite construction being among the first industries to resume in the city and a lot of new developments have opened since the start of the pandemic. Office buildings are certainly not at full occupancy as commuters including those commuting from outside of the city in aren't coming in as large of numbers, but people on net don't seem to be moving away from this city. I'm personally lucky enough to own, but a lot of people I know don't. They've got really high rent prices to deal with that seem to be going further up despite all the construction, so hopefully a large amount of office space gets converted into residential usage quickly. Office-heavy Midtown can especially use it as having more people living there would make those storefronts viable again--along with commercial storefront landlords finally lowering their rent prices.
Rents have managed to climb basically everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if populations in cities go up as office space gets converted to residential. It's just the net new construction will be down as it was corporate growth that funneled overpasses, trains, and skyscrapers, not luxury living. There's gonna be less foot and car traffic downtown, it might work out for the better experience in the long run, less glam, less in and out, more living.
I think the future new construction is going to be areas like Duluth GA and less so Sandy Springs GA, basically lopping off the parking garages and stories of the downtown and keeping the main street. People will go to their local downtown 6 miles away and less travel to the main center.
Rents have managed to climb basically everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if populations in cities go up as office space gets converted to residential. It's just the net new construction will be down as it was corporate growth that funneled overpasses, trains, and skyscrapers, not luxury living. There's gonna be less foot and car traffic downtown, it might work out for the better experience in the long run, less glam, less in and out, more living.
I think the future new construction is going to be areas like Duluth GA and less so Sandy Springs GA, basically lopping off the parking garages and stories of the downtown and keeping the main street. People will go to their local downtown 6 miles away and less travel to the main center.
If our autos-über-alles suburban form gets transformed into something friendlier to those not behind the wheel, even those ersatz "Main Street" developments, I will consider this a win.
A lot of those planned new towns (Seaside and Celebration, FL; the reshaping of Carmel, IN; and so on) are pretty much what I have in mind; their flaw IMO is that they are conceived as a finished whole from the very start, thus disallowing the sort of incremental, organic, "invisible hand" growth that characterized most of those American Small Towns I like. Another element of many of those planned towns I don't like: the quasi-governmental HOAs that micromanage and regulate what the residents may do with their properties. I'm not anti-zoning, though I do think that many of our zoning rules should be looser, but requiring certain paint colors, or banning the hanging of flags or banners, or stuff like that, frosts me.
If our autos-über-alles suburban form gets transformed into something friendlier to those not behind the wheel, even those ersatz "Main Street" developments, I will consider this a win.
A lot of those planned new towns (Seaside and Celebration, FL; the reshaping of Carmel, IN; and so on) are pretty much what I have in mind; their flaw IMO is that they are conceived as a finished whole from the very start, thus disallowing the sort of incremental, organic, "invisible hand" growth that characterized most of those American Small Towns I like. Another element of many of those planned towns I don't like: the quasi-governmental HOAs that micromanage and regulate what the residents may do with their properties. I'm not anti-zoning, though I do think that many of our zoning rules should be looser, but requiring certain paint colors, or banning the hanging of flags or banners, or stuff like that, frosts me.
When I first learned about Seaside, many years ago, I remember one of the "rules" was that no two houses on the same street could have the same picket fence design.
The organic small towns that places like Seaside are emulating did develop organically. But, they did so before the automobile. So, I get the need for some extra zoning rules to "force" that traditional form. but, the picket fence level of control is too much, IMO.
2020 pretty much cratered every large expensive downtown area in the US, with demand and prices dropping, people are moving somewhere else. Where do you all believe that somewhere else will be? What areas will see the growth from people relocating up until 2024?
Rural areas: towns of 5000 or less or 5 acre+ lots way on the edge of cities
Small cities: towns > 5000 to metros less than 500,000 in size, not connected to a larger CSA
Suburbs: low density single family homes of metros > 500,000 in size within the MSA
Exurbs: independent cities connected to a CSA >500,000 but not within the central MSA
Cheaper urban areas: higher density urban areas within a >500,000 metro with a COL in the lower 2/3.
Suburbs, as a higher percentage of millennials' children approach school age.
I think mid sized/smallish cities would be the next move and some have seen increases in recent years.
06-23-2022, 05:28 AM
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My own home country actually has a lot of potential remaining left room to grow.
China for one example is with 100 major mega cities+ that are typically more urban than the USA. While the USA is just with 10 to 30 of them. Quite a few of them not even reaching 1,000,000 citizens. Born in NYC, grown/raised over there/lived in NYC and Seattle. There isn't any doubt in my mind New York City is best during 2003 to 2013 for urban renaissance. Getting worse further from 2014 into the 2020's. Although, record low crime during 2016 to 2019.. Miss the old Cafes, Restaurants, Nightlife Venues from almost one decade ago. Seattle is actually closer to not declining. But, still is superior much earlier in the 2000's.
Can see Texas, Ohio cities actually becoming even better in the 2020's, 2030's from what they were 2000-2009, 2010-2019. Also, Georgia, Minnesota, Idaho, Utah, Florida, Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, the Dakotas. 2030's can be the most optimal occurrence of thriving. There are pros/advantages in all of those regions.
The USA can really go much further than this with Urbanization. A bit overt emphasis on Sprawl, Suburbia, Rural deep down when taken into account ALL 50 STATES.
My own home country actually has a lot of potential remaining left room to grow.
China for one example is with 100 major mega cities+ that are typically more urban than the USA. While the USA is just with 10 to 30 of them. Quite a few of them not even reaching 1,000,000 citizens. Born in NYC, grown/raised over there/lived in NYC and Seattle. There isn't any doubt in my mind New York City is best during 2003 to 2013 for urban renaissance. Getting worse further from 2014 into the 2020's. Although, record low crime during 2016 to 2019.. Miss the old Cafes, Restaurants, Nightlife Venues from almost one decade ago. Seattle is actually closer to not declining. But, still is superior much earlier in the 2000's.
Can see Texas, Ohio cities actually becoming even better in the 2020's, 2030's from what they were 2000-2009, 2010-2019. Also, Georgia, Minnesota, Idaho, Utah, Florida, Nevada, Alaska, Hawaii, Colorado, Missouri, Oklahoma, the Dakotas. 2030's can be the most optimal occurrence of thriving. There are pros/advantages in all of those regions.
The USA can really go much further than this with Urbanization. A bit overt emphasis on Sprawl, Suburbia, Rural deep down when taken into account ALL 50 STATES.
I'm not sure where you're trying to go with this.
If what you're saying is that America's big cities could, or should, look more like China's, that's going to be a very hard sell to Americans, even many American urbanophiles. The defenders of suburban sprawl accuse urbanists of wanting everyone to live in something that looks like Hong Kong, and that's not a positive.
Much of the decline in the restaurant/cafe/nightlife in not only New York but also many other large cities can be blamed on the COVID lockdowns. And, unfortunately for city cores, remote work appears to be here to stay, with only a very small percentage of offices requiring workers to return to the office every day. (At the mag I work for, we've been working remotely since March 2020, and we have yet to discuss any return-to-office plan.). The disappearance of a large chunk of the professional workforce means that we won't have the level of traffic in our downtowns to support the kind of activity they had pre-COVID, even in those with substantial resident populations like New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston and DC.
What do you see as the advantages of the Sunbelt, Plains and Intermountain West cities for becoming more urbane in the 2030s?
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