2010 census predictions (versus, New York, Pennsylvania, metro)

[miamiman]

Originally Posted by krock1dk

Here's my prediction for the largest METRO areas:

New York, NY-NJ 19 mill
Los Angeles, CA 17 mill
Chicago, IL-IN 10 mill
Dallas-Ft. Worth 7 mill
Philadelphia, PA-NJ
Washington DC-Baltimore, VA-MD
Bay Area of CA
Houston
Miami
Boston
Pheonix-Mesa
Detroit
Denver
St. Louis
Minneapolis-St. Paul
San Diego

I'm pretty sure the Phoenix metro will have more people than metro Boston.

[Golden-mind-State]

Originally Posted by jluke65780

Boston looks similar to Atlanta.

You're being too modest

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by krock1dk

My predictions for the states:

CA 36 mill
TX 26 mill
NY 18 mill
FL 17.8 mill
IL 12.3
PA 11.4
OH 11.1
MI 9.9 (slight gain since 2000, but now declining and will lose at least one electoral vote)
GA 9.5
NC 9.5
NJ 8.2
VA 7.8
WA 6.9
AZ 6.6
IN 6.5
MA 6.5
TN 6.4
Missouri 6.2
Maryland 6
WI 6
MN 5.3
CO 4.8


MI
CT
Rhode Island
Maine
the Dakotas

Illinois has been growing by around 60,000 people a year since 2000. I doubt the state is going to lose 600,000 people in the next 2 years.

Pennsylvania has grown by around 400,000 since 2000 - so I would doubt it's going to lose 1,200,000 people in the next 2 years.

I also doubt Georgia will lose hundreds of thosands the next 2 years.

[cpterp]

Originally Posted by gogetta

Michigan is guaranteed to have a decline in population. I was reading usa today at an airport and it showed every state and their population losses/gains since the start of the recession. It showed that only two states have lost population. The two being Maine and Michigan. It showed Maine having lost roughly 1,000-2,000 and Michigan having lost 30,000 plus. The two most rapidly declining cities in America are Flint, Michigan and New Orleans, LA.

This Youth populations drop 1.2M in Northeast, Midwest - USATODAY.com is similar to the article you're talking about (but covering the entire decade). The interactive map is really informative. Looks like everyone is moving North to South on both sides of the country.

[gogetta]

Originally Posted by cpterp

This Youth populations drop 1.2M in Northeast, Midwest - USATODAY.com is similar to the article you're talking about (but covering the entire decade). The interactive map is really informative. Looks like everyone is moving North to South on both sides of the country.

Yes this is similar, but not the same one. Though this is a great article, thank you for posting and plus 1 to you!

[PDX_LAX]

Originally Posted by cdw1084

I think that the South and the West will gain the most people. The South will gain more because of Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. I think that the Northeast will see a bigger decline than any other region because the population was been very stagnant for a while.

States most likely to Gain electoral votes: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina

States most likely to Lose electoral votes: New York, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Top 10 largest Metro Areas
1) NYC
2) LA
3) CHI
4) DAL
5) HOU
6) PHI
7) ATL
8) MIA
9) DC
10) BOS

Last I heard, Oregon is almost guaranteed to pick up another congressional district which I believe translates into another electoral vote as well.

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by tmac9wr

Have you guys not seen Boston lately?

Thanks (http://www.flickr.com/photos/marcohk/2357526873/sizes/l/ - broken link)

Ni hao Boston.

[TANaples]

Originally Posted by cpterp

This Youth populations drop 1.2M in Northeast, Midwest - USATODAY.com is similar to the article you're talking about (but covering the entire decade). The interactive map is really informative. Looks like everyone is moving North to South on both sides of the country.

people had fewer children in those regions?

[lammius]

Originally Posted by Chicago60614

Illinois has been growing by around 60,000 people a year since 2000. I doubt the state is going to lose 600,000 people in the next 2 years.http://www.city-data.com/forum/newre...ply&p=12877822

Pennsylvania has grown by around 400,000 since 2000 - so I would doubt it's going to lose 1,200,000 people in the next 2 years.

I also doubt Georgia will lose hundreds of thosands the next 2 years.

Or that NJ will lose 500,000. Perhaps the guy thinks it's 2000 and is posting estimates for that Census? Maybe he traveled back in time like this guy: YTMND - Safety Not Guaranteed

[Lifeshadower]

Here's a question that no one explored in this thread: Which metro areas will have boundary changes?

As American cities sprawl more and more into further and further municipalities and people are more willing to commute from further out, it is very possible that some areas (especially Houston, Dallas, and Atlanta) will add counties and people to their MSA's/CSA's. Some areas in CSA's might become part of the MSA, and somewhere that might have been out in the boonies 10 years ago might be part of a metro area.

Of course, this is all determined by commuter patterns.

As for California, there could be a possibility that the Inland Empire (San Bernardino and Riverside Counties) will probably combine into LA's MSA as people fleeing the coastal areas find 'refuge' in the Inland Empire. Hell, the 91, 60, 10, and 210 on any given weekday has to be the consistently slowest 60 miles in the United States. If that's the case, then there actually might be a possibility that LA MSA will be bigger than NY's MSA since the Inland Empire has been amongst the fastest growing metro areas in the US for the past 10 years.

New York metropolitan area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
NY MSA has 18,815,988 as of 2007

Greater Los Angeles Area - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
LA MSA + Inland Empire MSA = 16,988,679 as of 2007.

However, I doubt Ventura County will be added to LA MSA yet, but if it is, it will probably eclipse NY MSA.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that San Joaquin County will be added to the Bay Area's CSA (due to the growth of Tracy, Manteca, Lodi, and Stockton as exurbs in the past 10 years), while Santa Clara County (or San Jose) will be added to San Francisco's MSA. Even more so than 10 years ago, there are probably more commuters from San Mateo and Alameda Counties that are going into Santa Clara County and vice-versa.

Just something else to think about.