Vancouver & Mt. St. Helens (Seattle, Tacoma: how much, buying, tornado)

[GIMMER]

I live approximately 30 miles South/Southwest from Mt. St. Helens, and for me, there is nothing more relaxing than cresting a hill on the drive to my house and seeing her framed by pines on both sides of the highway. Not worried about any future explosions, only by all the traffic when she starts sending ash into the air...its almost as exciting as a Circus. She's a lovely lady with an attitude all her own. Oh, and if you have been reading anything in the local newspaper (The Columbian), you will see that we had a small earthquake (3.7) a couple of weeks ago, centered near Dollars Corner. Just adds to the fun. As stated...its a beautiful area to live.

[danco]

Hey KidBlue that was'nt an earthquake in Chicago.
( Just big rigs hitting those craters they call potholes )

[KidBlue]

You are not kidding, Dancocal. I was in Chicago several years ago for a training class and the street actually collapsed! I think it may have swallowed a truck too. I thought that was pretty amazing until a street in Sacramento did the same thing. Must be spreading west.....

[RodFarlee]

Originally Posted by silverfox

As far a a tsunami, my guess would be at least 150 feet...

That is far, far worse than what is actually predicted.

According to the state Emergency Management Division, tsunami hazard from a Cascadia subduction earthquake exists within 30 feet above mean high tide on the Pacific Coast (Neah Bay, La Push, Long Beach) 30 to 60 minutes after the earthquake. This would also affect the strait of Juan de Fuca (Port Angeles, Dungeness, Port Townsend, Lopez), but only low areas, and with about 90 minutes warning. It might affect a few areas in the Strait of Georgia (state park beaches on Whitby, lowlands west of Bellingham). However, this tsunami isn't a hazard south of Admiralty Inlet and is predicted to be only 2 feet high at Seattle.
http://emd.wa.gov/6-mrr/mit-rec/mit/mit-pubs-forms/hazmit-plan/Tab%207.1.7%20Tsunami%20final.pdf#search=%22tsunam i%20puget%20fuca%22 (broken link)

Tsunami hazard within Puget Sound arises from local earthquakes, likely to be up to magnitude 7 or so, and could reach 10 feet or so above mean high tide. A higher tsunami is possible if a landslide enters the Sound, but that would affect only a small area. There might be little or no warning.
http://www.metrokc.gov/prepare/docs/...nmiSeiches.pdf

Originally Posted by silverfox

Then by some slim chance you survive all that, what will you do when all of the volcanos which are the natural vents for these events start erupting and the ash buries you and your home ??

This scenario of a subduction earthquake triggering multiple major volcanic eruptions is absurd fantasy worthy of a Hollywood disaster movie script, a la "The Day After Tomorrow".

A Cascadia subduction earthquake is a real hazard. It can be prepared for, and need not be run away from or ignored. Anchorage survived one in 1964. But few will take a warning seriously if it is a mix of fact, guess and pure fantasy.

Originally Posted by silverfox

I live in this area now, and after 70 years I am making my plans to leave the area. Not really what I want to do however but I just do not want to be here if it happens in my lifetime.

OK, but is that reasonable? What is the probability? Your life expectancy is 13.5 years (CDC data for a white male age 70). The USGS site you recommend says the probability of a magnitude 9 in the next 13.5 years is 2.5%, and magnitude 8 is 4%. Tsunami will not affect Sequim. Based on the 1964 Anchorage earthquake (magnitude 9.2 only 75 miles away, 9 deaths out of a population of 100,000 on far less stable soils), your chance of dying in such an event is something below 3%/10,000 = 1/300,000 = 0.0003%.

Over the same period, your chance of dying of heart disease is 17%. Taking a brisk walk twice a week may reduce that risk by a thousand times more than your earthquake risk.
Over the same time, your chance of dying of cancer is 11% or of diabetes is 3%. Diet could reduce that risk by a hundred times more than your earthquake risk.
Your chance of dying in an accident is 2%, or seven thousand times higher than your earthquake risk. Drive carefully.
Your chance of dying of pneumonia or influenza is 4%, or thirteen thousand times higher than your earthquake risk. If the colder winters in eastern WA increase this risk by only 1/13,000, you've lost your bet.
Are you really preparing for the most likely things, or running from the least likely?

I take the risk of a Cascadia subduction earthquake seriously (and it is certain to happen again eventually), so have prepared for it, and have earthquake insurance. I try to take all risks seriously. But I try to balance them. Your over-reaction to this one risk doesn't make sense to me.

But then some people are afraid of spiders,
some of snakes;
some of tornadoes
...and some of earthquakes?

[Mark S.]

Silverfox is right. This subject is a major source of denial of residents.

Mt. Rainier is potentially one of the most deadly volcanoes in the world. Note: Potentially. Yes, there is a danger of serious eruption, but it isn't going to be Pompeii. We have so much monitoring equipment up there now that we are going to know well in advance of a major eruption.

Even St. Helens...they knew that was coming. Locals were warned and most got out. The ones who died were either those who refused to leave or scientists who were caught by surprise at the magnitude of the eruption and were just too close. And that was 25 years ago. Vulcanologists have learned lots more about volcanoes since then.

So, yes, it is a danger. But honestly, earthquakes are a bigger danger. I was here for the big one a few years ago, and the complete lack of preparedness by most people was stunning. And it hasn't gotten any better.

[silverfox]

Rofarlee,

I must compliment you on your lengthy and informative reply. I think we are both right in different ways in our analysis of this future event. Some see the glass half full and others see it half empty. That is the problem. My feelings after all the reasearch I have done are that I do not want to take the risk of going thru what surely lies somewhere ahead. If it does not happen in my lifetime then so be it, but the fact is that probably 90 percent of the vulnerable population are not aware, nor are they prepared for such an event. Most feel that earthquakes are pretty much just a 15 second event that won't really effect them.
I would only say this to you in relation to my decision to move.
I will be happy to stay if you can 100% Guarantee me that I will be safe.
I do admit that the odds are probably in favor of it not affecting me and my family in our lifetimes and this of course is just a personal decision on my part.
I already have taken the steps to eat properly, walk 2 miles every day, eat organic foods when possible, do not smoke or drink or take any medications,drink distilled water, and get at least 8 hours of sleep each nite. My blood pressure is that of a 25 year old.
These are all things I can control in my life.
My mother lived to 98, and was actually still internally healthy and on no medications when she fell and broke here pelvis which turned out to be fatal. It wasn't from brittle bones that this happened. She was playing the piano and dancing when she fell.
I think I still have 20 to 30 years to enjoy my life.
The Sub Continental event will happen when the time comes, and every creature in the kill zone will pay the price as is the case in all happenings of this magnitude.
I only bring this information to this forum as a possible senerio, not a sure thing. I hope each person that reads both of our messages will at least do some research and only then should they make any decision on how they feel about this potential catastrophy.
It won't do much good to address what went wrong with your calculations after the event takes place.

Silverfox

[RodFarlee]

Originally Posted by silverfox

I would only say this to you in relation to my decision to move.
I will be happy to stay if you can 100% Guarantee me that I will be safe.

I can 100% guarantee you that you won't be perfectly safe, and whether you move or not won't materially change that. You're obviously an intelligent man, and surely realize you've issued a rejection of any rational discussion of risks?

A magnitude 9 subduction quake will not be a "kill zone", as you call it. It is prudent to prepare for the power and roads to be out for several weeks, so it won't be more than it need be: a major inconvenience. One can be almost certain that the after-effects (lack of water, food, heat, access to fire and ambulance services) will harm more people than the immediate effects will. But these are largely avoidable by simple preparation.

You're right that most people fail to prepare. But does exaggeration help? No, it is actively counterproductive because will simply make more people either dismiss your concern entirely or think they can't prepare for it, when they certainly can, in fact rather easily. So this is a simple plea: you'd be more helpful to your neighbors here if your postings were more realistic, and therefore credible. This is a topic that deserves serious discussion leading to preparation, not incitement to evacuation or panic.

The touchstone of each posting here should be: is it helpful? Exaggeration is not helpful.

[silverfox]

Rodfarlee,

It is obvious we view this issue differently but I have no problem with that.
There may be information that I have accumulated that you have not discovered. There is so much data out there that it can become confusiing and overwhelming.
It sounds as if you have done a considerable amount of research yourself.
The State Representative of our county has been kind enough to forward to me many of the documents that he has in his posession relating to this issue.
Recently, they have been reasearching and preparing the county for this on an emergency basis. They too have been asleep as to what has all of a sudden become obvious based on prior events.
I must say I disagree with you that a 9+ earthquake will not produce a Kill Zone. I have information for what is is worth that the initial shock will possibly produce a 9.2 earthquake with a duration of 4 to 5 minutes at varying magnitudes. That would be an unbelievable event all on it's own. People today have never experienced anything like that before as the last time it occurred was 1700 as far as we currently know. If we get lucky the magitude could be between 8.0 and 9.2. Nobody knows for sure.
Just speaking of this general area, and not taking into consideration that this could encompass the whole west coast, it would be possible for this to trigger many of the basic crustle faults like the major one that sits right under Seattle for example. It would be impossible to predict what the outcome of such a large movement could finally produce. We can only expect that there will be many after shocks as well.
The Anchorage earthquake was large, but it happened in a remote area so there was not as much loss of life. It did not have a long duration such as this one could. Many Buildings that might survive a large quake for 30 to 60 seconds would more than likely collapse with a long duration event.
I could go on and on but I think I have made the point I wanted to, even if it sounds like " The Day After Tomorrow"

I appologize to anyone that may be offended by my statements, and maybe I have exagerated somewhat in certain areas, but with what I have found out I can only hope that people reading these statements will at least take heed of the lurking danger and get you families and businesses as well prepared as you possibly can. We live in a different world that when I grew up.... unfortunately.

End of conversation,

Silverfox

[fastfilm]

We survived the 6.9 Northridge, CA 1994 earthquake, but two of our neighbors across the street did not. We were 3 miles from the epicenter. Do not underestimate the problems we all have living on the Pacific rim of quakes. We survived because we had retrofitted our house prior.

[RodFarlee]

Originally Posted by silverfox

The Anchorage earthquake was large, but it happened in a remote area so there was not as much loss of life. It did not have a long duration such as this one could. Many Buildings that might survive a large quake for 30 to 60 seconds would more than likely collapse with a long duration event.

In Anchorage in 1964, ground shaking lasted 4 to 6 minutes, depending on local conditions. The same is forecast for a subduction earthquake here.

The 1964 magnitude 9.2 earthquake was centered 75 miles southeast of Anchorage. The Cascadia fault is approximately 75 miles west of Sequim at the 25 km depth where an 8+ earthquake is most likely to originate.

In 1964, Anchorage had 55,000 residents in the city, 100,000 in the area, of which 9 died. The population of Clallam and Jefferson counties together is about the same as that, and we will be similarly isolated from outside support afterwards.

Poor soil conditions (saturated fill downtown, residential areas built on unconsolidated hillsides) underlay the damaged areas. Sequim has no such areas, but Seattle, Tacoma and Portland certainly do.

The fault is closer to shore in Southern Oregon and Northern California, so have correspondingly higher acceleration forecasts.
http://www.crew.org/science/pgaall.html
They also risk higher tsunamis (~30 ft vs 10 to 20 ft in WA). See page 4 of:
http://www.1906eqconf.org/tutorials/...m_Crawford.pdf

The Anchorage earthquake just cannot be lightly dismissed as an inappropriate model for the future Cascadia subduction earthquake. Geologists and planners study and often cite it as a model. Yes, it would affect more people in WA and OR than in AK. However, we also have proportionately more emergency response, better building codes, tsunami warnings and, hopefully, better preparation than they did. The individual experience is likely to be similar. It took weeks for most peoples' lives to get back to normal.

Originally Posted by silverfox

People today have never experienced anything like that before as the last time it occurred was 1700 as far as we currently know

My neighbor here in Sequim lived in Anchorage then and for 30 years afterward before retiring in Sequim. If you want to talk to him, lemme know.

Please stick to facts. They are too important to be exaggerated to the extent that no one will think it's survivable, so don't prepare for it. Your "Kill Zone" hyperpole is not factual, nor is it helpful to anyone.