Vancouver & Mt. St. Helens (Seattle, Poulsbo: home, water heater, college)

[mnacct]

I've heard a lot of great things about vancouver. I'm considering moving there for a change of scenery. I've been living on the east coast all my life and would like to escape the hustle and bustle of (Washington, D.C.). I saw on the map that Vancouver is close to Mt. St. Helens. Do the locals worry that it may erupt like it did in 1980?

[silverfox]

Hi mnacct,

Not trying to dampen your thoughts but if I were you I would be more concerned about the "Cascadia Sub Continental Earthquake" possibilities. You can Goolge it and do some research.
This event when it happens could trigger the whole Cascade range and would involve Mt Hood which would be more of a threat than Mt St. Helens.
As far as recent events go, most of Mt St Helens ash and flow goes to the north as that is the direction of the Blow out. It is still an active Volcano so anything is possible. Mt Rainier is the BIG DADDY as far as Volcano possibilities go.
You won't be able to insure your investment against this natural disaster so be prepared.

Good Luck

Silverfox

[LMB]

Silverfox,

While visiting the Seattle area last month, I asked several of my relatives and friends about the potential Cascadia Subduction zone, major earthquake and tsunami dangers (from info I've read here and also a program on the Discovery Channel a few weeks ago). They all looked at me like I was crazy, and said they don't really think about it. Then they turned the conversation to our Florida hurricanes. Don't get me wrong, I hate hurricanes and I've sat out far too many of them over the last two years (and we're not even on the coast!)--but we get plenty of notice that a hurricane is coming and we can prepare, or get out of the way. A major earthquake and subsequent huge tsunami won't give much warning time--and there's going to be massive traffic gridlock trying to evacuate.

Even though the chances of a major earthquake and tsunami might be slim there, what areas of Puget Sound are in the most danger? I've seen conflicting information online. There are so many low lying areas near the coast. What about Poulsbo with an elevation of only 12 feet, and Kingston at 80 ft (two areas we're thinking about retiring to)? What about Seattle--is it in potential danger from tsunami? I know natural disasters can strike anywhere at anytime, and no place is perfectly safe, but are residents of this area genuinely concerned about this potential disaster, or do most just have a "what will be, will be" attitude?

Just wondering what the feeling is among the people who live there. We still love the area and plan to relocate there. I guess I want to know if we should stick to properties of high elevation--and how high is high enough?

LMB

PS--our temp in central FL is currently 96, and humidity feels about the same. Ugh.

[WA-to-TN]

You can read about Mt. Rainier at the website shown below. Orting would not be a safe place to live if Mt. Rainier erupted. When they excavated home foundations in the area of Orting, the tree-trunk forests were still buried in the Osceola/Electron mudflows.

vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Rainier/description_rainier.html



Compiled From: 1 Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, 1998, and 2 Wright and Pierson, 1992, Living With Volcanoes, The U.S. Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program: USGS Circular 1073, and 3 Foxworthy and Hill, 1982, Volcanic Eruptions of 1980 at Mount St. Helens, The First 100 Days: USGS Professional Paper 1249
Mount Rainier
Location: Washington
Latitude: 46.87 N
Longitude: 121.758 W
Height: 4,392 Meters (14,410 Feet)
Type: StratoVolcano
Number of eruptions in the past 200 years: 1 (?) (1882)
Latest Eruptions: About 1820(?); 1841-1843(?); 1854(?); 1879; 1882 3.
Present thermal activity: Occasional steam explosions on upper slopes; many steam vents and hot rocks in summit area.
Remarks: History of massive debris avalanches and debris flows. Occasional very shallow seismicity. ... A mudflow caused by steam explosions about 5,700 years ago was one of the largest known in the world. Expected to erupt again within the next few hundred years; hazards consist mainly of mudflows, floods, and fallout of tephra.

See link:

nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/Pdf/ps_tsunamis.pdf

This link may be more readable than the previous post.

nctr.pmel.noaa.gov/pugetsound/pre2/

[silverfox]

mnacct,

This is such a profound subject that I cannot put it in an E Mail, however here is a websit that might help some.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/...ates/index.php

Click on, Custom mapping analysis...on right side link

Click on, Earthquake probability mapping 2002 in the center section

Enter time in years, magnitude limit, and zip code of area your looking for.

This will give you an idea of what might be comming in that general area.

As far a a tsunami, my guess would be at least 150 feet.

They are talking about a magnatude 9.2 plus event and in the olympic pennisula area they are saying the initial shock could last for 4 to 5 minutes.
That alone should scare the "crap" out of anybody in that area.

Then there will be the aftershocks that could also be large and lengthy.

Then they are saying that there could be a drop or an uplift of 20 ft + or -
during the initial shock.
As you mentioned about hurricanes, you have time to plan. But there will not be any time to plan for this and it could happen in the middle of the nite or in the winter when temps are below freezing.

Then there is the Liquifaction issue. Does your investment sit in one of those many areas ??

Then by some slim chance you survive all that, what will you do when all of the volcanos which are the natural vents for these events start erupting and the ash buries you and your home ?? And the Lahares come running down the low spots.

Then of course there is the tsunami to deal with. Maybe you will be high enough, but whole waterfront areas will be devistated.

You are correct about the attitude of the local residents. Even though I have many friends and most of them counsel me for advise on many subjects, when I talk to them about this issue they look the other way, and change the subject. That is denial big time. I have done my research, and not many want to address the issue.
I have even spoken personally to several of the Top researchers in this area and they are basically saying this.....
"Don't say you haven't been warned."
This event when, and not if it happens, could effect the West Coast from Canada to Northern California. It could be HUGE.
The last time rresearch showed we had one of these events it in Washington was in 1700. They tend to occur every 300 to 500 years. The last I heard there was some new evidence it may occur at shorter intervals as well. Thats the problem. Nobody knows for sure, but they all know it will happen again and again.
It would be such a large event, that people in general cannot even come close to understanding what will occur.

It could seriously damage our Country, and not just a city or two.

It is on the radar of many of the local disaster planners, but so far not much interest by the residents.

I live in this area now, and after 70 years I am making my plans to leave the area. Not really what I want to do however but I just do not want to be here if it happens in my lifetime.

This general area is one of the best places to live in the U.S. but I plan to move somewhere in Eastern Washington as soon as I can make all the arrangements. It gets hot there, but low humidity helps and some areas cool a little at nite as well. Ive been to Hialeia Fla. in Sept. and I agree with your asessment of UGH.

Silverfox

[mnacct]

Thanks silverfox, everyone for your candid responses. I checked out the USGS site as you recommended, and Seattle looks like it's in for BIGGG trouble!!! Vancouver, the area I'm more interested looks like an earthquake in the next 50 years, 50% chance.

It doesn't dampen my spirits to read the information you've provided. I'm glad you opened my eyes to Mt. Rainier and the whole Cascade range. While those who live near those areas and have great views, they can all be wiped out by a single volcano eruption or an earthquake.

I thought I lived in an area where it was immune from natural disasters (maryland). But 2001 changed my life. We had a tornado in College Park, MD, I was on the campus of U. of Maryland and saw cars flip over, buildings get damaged, I felt like I was in a horror movie. It took me forever to get home. But I survived, and I now accept that natural disasters happen no matter where you live.

(http://www.weatherbook.com/collegeparkmain.html)

[silverfox]

mnacct,

Don't want to be picky but the chart shows 50% at 25 to 30 years for the Vancouver area zip 98660. Did you use the 9.0 sub continental indicator? Notice the distance inland from the coast that this quake will effect all along the West coast.
I'm not worried to much about all the lesser magnatude quakes. I have lived thru everthing that has been in the Seattle area since 1936. That doesn't mean there have not been some pretty good shakers, but thats not what this is all about.
As Fred Sanford says.....I think this is the BIG ONE..... that bothers me.

Silverfox

[brittanym]

As a resident of Vancouver, I'm not afraid of any sort of eruption from Mt. St. Helen's. Last year, I worked fairly close to the mountain in Toutle, but residents are aware of the danger and have a good evacuation plan. As far as I know, Vancouver was not too terribly impacted from the 1980 eruption, and in an event of another one, I think that most are well prepared. Vancouver has a lot to offer historically and as a community. There is an immense amount of resources and the scenery is absolutely breathtaking in some areas. I love Vancouver because of it's central location. I'm ten minutes form Portland, OR, an amazing city in itself; 3 hours from Seattle; about an hour and forty minutes to the coast; and 1-2 hrs. from National Volcanic monuments. There is an amazing array of campgrounds, hiking trails and outdoor rafting and water activities close by, and also a hip art crowd in the metro area with unique NW art, glass blowing and pottery. We also are big on Jazz Festivals, micro brew festivals and you can't forget the wine and seafood festivals in several closeby towns. There is so much to do and see here! It's a wonderful place to live!!!

[klpeake]

I was reading on this topic the other night and found some data that said that if the volcano were to resume it's activity level at that that it was doing in the 80's that it would take 200 years for it to regain the strength for another eruption like the one that happened in 1980.

Karol

[KidBlue]

I live in CA and guess I'm one of those not that worried about earthquakes. All of our state is either rated as an earthquake danger of 3 or 4, out of 4. We also have the San Andreas Fault which we consider "the big one" and thousands of little ones. I currently live over the Bear Mountain Fault which is a small fault that has not had major activity. CA is rated number one of the 48 states for risk of major earthquakes (WA is rated number five).

So, I would advise that fear of volcanoes or earthquakes should not keep you from living in such a beautiful place (I was there last week and it was beautiful), as long as you are prepared. Don't move to a city that is likely to be impacted (Vancouver is not one of them--San Francisco is). Don't work or live in a highrise if you can help it. If not, try for a newer earthquake safer building. Bolt hot water heaters and large, high furniture to the wall. Turn off the gas. Keep enough food and water to last you and your family (and pets) for at least two weeks and have a family emergency plan developed just in case you are separated. You may never experience a quake, and natural disasters can happen anywhere. They even had an earthquake in Chicago--who would have bet on that?