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Old 03-05-2012, 02:23 PM
 
Location: Winter Springs, FL
1,789 posts, read 4,056,956 times
Reputation: 925

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
One day in the future we'll have enough weather stations in place to get data from each city. But then in some cases conditions will vary even in the same city especially where there's big dips and rises of hills.

TWC and NWS only use the stations available near you. If there is none in your town they use closest (and sometimes thats off a lot).

As far as forecasts, there's one thing they all look at...weather models. There are a number of models and data to look at to create a forecast. Some mix personal opionion in there. Like 68vette said, this winter alone forecasts were a disaster, sole reason is because models didnt handle anything correctly this winter.

Bottom line is, one forecast can be different from another because they will use/prefer a different model and/or use different data. This is very common. When you get a chance, read the public forecast discussions from NWS and they'll mention which model they preferred to use in their forecast today.

NAM might have temps in 50s Thursday but GFS has 30s. Euro shows sun, CMC shows clouds. Usually a blend of 2 models is used.
What you say makes sense. The Weather Channel as well as the NWS must be using a model that is way off from what the local meteorologists use. I live in the Burlington area and those reports are typically off. In many cases they were calling for snow when temps were in the high thirties or mid fourties. The local forecasts are typically within a degree or two of what they say and the precipitation is usually dead on.
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Old 03-05-2012, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
68,931 posts, read 51,087,645 times
Reputation: 11342
Using just temps from 3 different sources. (2 are models)

Minimum Temps Friday morning. (time stamp on bottom)
Here's the latest NAM model, GFS model and what HPC says.
HPC Day 3-7 Minimum Temperature Forecasts

For Vermont it looks pretty similar. But if you look at CT, NAM has mostly mid 40s. But GFS has 50s stetching across. So do you tell your audience its going to be low of mid 40s or 50s?

HPC says 30s.

And this is 4 days away.

I am glad I'm not a forecaster. lol
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Old 03-05-2012, 09:47 PM
 
Location: Vermont / NEK
5,773 posts, read 12,297,386 times
Reputation: 7193
When I moved to the northeastern part of VT back in the 80s, the locals told me the most reliable forecasts were out of Montreal. I went along with that and have listened to CBC Radio quite a lot over the years and unexpectedly found so many other wonderful reasons to tune in. Their weather info has always been as accurate as one could expect. And when they mention the eastern townships my ears perk right up. But then, I'm less than a mile from the border.

I also listen to and read the weather info out of St. Johnsbury (Eye On The Sky) and these guys present the most detailed forecasts that I've found. They don't just say it'll be cool and cloudy today. They let you know all of the reasoning behind it.

Roger Hill's in-depth local forecasting is right up there as well, although I'm usually out of listening range...

But for where I live, I still depend on the NWS forecasts. I find that their timing of storms, fronts, precip and such couldn't be a whole lot better. Maybe that's just a fluke for where I live.

I guess if you want hard weather data, my suggestion would be to get it from several different sources.
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Middlebury, VT
19 posts, read 25,188 times
Reputation: 100
70 degrees yesterday here in Rutland!
Next week shows 4 days in a row with highs in the 60s. No complaints.
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Old 03-12-2012, 09:01 PM
 
43,012 posts, read 92,013,162 times
Reputation: 30379
Word is the ski season is going to end in two weeks unless it snows again.
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Old 03-12-2012, 11:06 PM
 
Location: Vermont / NEK
5,773 posts, read 12,297,386 times
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I can see Jay staying open for another month if it stays in the 30s on the hill, but it's been warm lately and that's the way it's supposed to stay for at least the next week. (daytime 50s and 60s) So you may be right. In spite of all that Jay has made a substantial stride forward in becoming a 4-season resort with the new water park and they're predicting a record year, though probably not for lift tickets.
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Old 03-13-2012, 05:37 PM
 
Location: IN
20,786 posts, read 35,828,356 times
Reputation: 13210
Next week might be even warmer. The blowtorch pattern continues and this might wreak havoc on plants and trees coming out too early. The average last freeze date is the middle of May for many locales.
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Old 03-13-2012, 05:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
68,931 posts, read 51,087,645 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Next week might be even warmer. The blowtorch pattern continues and this might wreak havoc on plants and trees coming out too early. The average last freeze date is the middle of May for many locales.
Was just about to post about that. Pattern looks to continue with little precip and warm temps.

Here's next Monday based on latest GFS.

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Old 03-13-2012, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Vermont / NEK
5,773 posts, read 12,297,386 times
Reputation: 7193
^ Those temps are reminiscent of the spring of 2010. That year winter ended with a thud as soon as March kicked in. Then we got a prolonged snow storm around the end of April / begining of May that lasted for over 24 hours damaging some apple blossoms, mine included. Can't say I'm a fan of the new normal...
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Old 03-13-2012, 09:53 PM
 
Location: IN
20,786 posts, read 35,828,356 times
Reputation: 13210
Quote:
Originally Posted by square peg View Post
^ Those temps are reminiscent of the spring of 2010. That year winter ended with a thud as soon as March kicked in. Then we got a prolonged snow storm around the end of April / begining of May that lasted for over 24 hours damaging some apple blossoms, mine included. Can't say I'm a fan of the new normal...
I can't say I'm a fan of dealing with more invasive species as a result of the "new normal" either
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