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Old 12-13-2012, 09:18 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432

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Quote:
Originally Posted by square peg View Post
Y'know, Cambium - you may have missed your calling. You've just about turned into our go-to guy for long-range weather around here. Around here being my house. Really appreciating your work!
lol. Thanks. I appreciate it. I just have a passion for weather and most of all have a goal to just make sure people have a heads up. Too many times I've seen injuries, deaths and people getting stuck because "they didnt know".

Just remember.. anything I post from days and weeks out Im just showing what is being shown by models. Sometimes I'll add my thoughts but I dont make the senarios. Models are availble to everyone. They basically take upper air data from weather balloons and ground data from weathe stations and come to a future conclusion.

I seriously doubt that NAM snow total will happen.
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Old 12-14-2012, 05:49 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
Wow. Just catching up with the overnight models.

Euro and GFS show blizzard conditions Saturday the 22nd. Rare they agree on a storm this far out let alone temps.

If I had to sum up whats coming for second half of month I would just say..... Cold and Snowy.

Dotted blue line would be the rain snow line. Another one to track now.

So we have...

December 16-17
December 19
December 22



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Old 12-14-2012, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
Default Landscape Change

Folks north of I-90. Look at your landscape outside and grass today. You might not see it again for a while after Sunday. I'm not talking days... I might not be talking weeks either.

If I'm wrong.. I will admit it. But thats how the pattern is looking.

Christmas Eve and Day look to be white and Cold. Classic outside weather being Gray, cloudy, scattered snow showers everywhere and Cold.
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Old 12-14-2012, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Winter Springs, FL
1,789 posts, read 4,066,340 times
Reputation: 925
The forecast from this morning is not looking as promising. There is going to be a nor'easter, but a chunk of the storm looks like the temps are going to be on the warm side. It is still a little to far out, but it should start as snow, then as we get into the day the temps are supposed to reach into the 40's and turn to a mix by the evening before it peters out. There may be a few inches in the evening depending on the area.
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Old 12-14-2012, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
Quote:
Originally Posted by vter View Post
Here's hoping for Tuesday night so we can get home ahead the storm.
BRING IT ON!
Hey..just wanted to give you a suggestion.. Latest NAM showing heavy snow for Tuesday now starting in the morning. Shows a foot of snow for Maine and 6-10" for southern NH by Tuesday evening and 4-6" from willmington to Ludlow in VT. What I was thinking is, if you're starting from Boston, take I-90 and then go north on I-91. You might be able to beat the big snow accumulations.

There is so much going on I dont know what or where to focus on. But thats what the latest NAM says.

Can someone post a piece of some BTV discussion? Thanks
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Old 12-14-2012, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Winter Springs, FL
1,789 posts, read 4,066,340 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Can someone post a piece of some BTV discussion? Thanks
This is a quote from the WCAX weather site:
"We are continuing to monitor a potential "Nor'easter" for the Tue./Wed. time period. Right now, it looks like it will bring us a snow/rain mix on Tuesday, ending with snow showers on Wed. We will keep you up-to-date with the latest developments of this storm over the next few days, and continue to narrow down the impacts that it will have on us."
-Gary

The forecast is showing daytime temps in the 40's for Mon, Tue, and mid to upper 30's on Wed.
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Old 12-14-2012, 11:50 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
Euro12z just finished coming out. I havent looked at the maps yet but here's a quick look at the data from it for Rutland VT.

The first thing I want to point out is the column with my green outline. Thats the 6hr precip totals. Right away you know its going to be cloudy with rain or snow all those days (Sunday to Thursday)

Second things is, I outlines when temps are below freezing. Left column is the surfac temps, right are the 5000' temps(neeed for snow)

So this here at this location shows Light snow changing to rain by Monday morning.
Surface temps and layer above stay above freezing until Wednesday when the upper level becomes cold and then the surface becomes cold Thursday but notice the qpf drops off. So that means just changing to light snows.

So this Euro run looks like a rainy week mostly. Then notice the temps drop hard. Teens Thursday night. I think Saturdays storm is the one to watch more but like I said... so much going on I dont know what to focus on. lol

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Old 12-14-2012, 12:05 PM
 
Location: Winter Springs, FL
1,789 posts, read 4,066,340 times
Reputation: 925
This is what they are showing for tomorrow on our local forecast.


Sunday is when snow is reported to start, but because of the warm front coming our way, it looks like a mix at first with rain following (from what the meteorologists reported around noontime).
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Old 12-14-2012, 08:16 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
Models trending warmer for the first 2 storms now but look what NAM does now. 2 storms in the northeast?? This is for Tuesday morning.

I think I'm going to just use the "look out the window" concept until models get better. Maybe mid week storm or next weekend they'll agre on something.

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Old 12-15-2012, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
69,217 posts, read 51,442,002 times
Reputation: 11432
NAM is robust (as usual). 989mb low NorEaster. Maine gets hammered with snow.

This is by Tuesday evening. Over a foot in maine. Up to a foot in NH. Half foot + in VT.

Looks like models are speeding up the event. Tuesday would be the day to stay off the roads. Sorry Vter. But like I said, take I-90 then North I-91 but its the troubles you might come across over the MA/VT border.

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