Why Won't Virginia Elect Women?

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

If, for example, the fertility dip is more shallow during this recession than during milder recessions of the past, your claim would be nonsensical. And there would have to be other explanatory variables like cultural changes or rise in religiosity for example.

The range of variation is really too narrow to come to your conclusion that there are larger societal factors at work. Fertility rates have not changed with any real significance since the 70s as compared to the 40s and 50s, largely due to reproductive choice becoming the law of the land. You folks seem to think think that just because you win a few seats in a mid term election (not all that unusual) that the country is drastically changing. It really isn't, at least in the direction you want it to.

What's amusing about all this is that the recent hispanic immigrants are heavily skewing the birthrate and religiosity statistics in your direction and yet your right wing friends want to drive them out and wall them off. You should be throwing open the borders.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

The range of variation is really too narrow to come to your conclusion that there are larger societal factors at work. Fertility rates have not changed with any real significance since the 70s as compared to the 40s and 50s, largely due to reproductive choice becoming the law of the land.

Sigh. The variations in fertility rates are statistically significant. Furthermore, even with "hiccups" during recessions, you can plot well-defined trends on the graphs.

Your picking of 40-50's is rather arbitrary in that you forget the primary driving factor of fertility during the immediate post-war years: the worst and most destructive war in human history in which dozens of millions perished. Of course fertility is going to spike afterwards! There is almost always a measurable spike in fertility after major wars in which significant portions of the male population participate as combatants. Generally it's not a good idea to use highly extraordinary circumstances like major worldwide conflagrations as the benchmark.

But all this is simply a diversion. I note that in the recent decades (yes, even during the severe recession of 2008), American fertility rate has remained ABOVE 2.0 the theoretical replacement rate while in much of Western/Northern Europe it has remained below the replacement rate REGARDLESS of economic conditions. In other words, these countries are becoming depopulated ever so slowly while the U.S. is gaining population due to above replacement rate fertility and, of course, immigration. The two regions are on different demographic trajectories.

You folks seem to think think that just because you win a few seats in a mid term election (not all that unusual) that the country is drastically changing. It really isn't, at least in the direction you want it to.

Who are "you folks"? Are your racist tendencies coming out again? I want to talk data and you keep trying to personalize the debate and throw in cheap shots ("b.s. you heard on Fox News" ad naseum).

And I don't recall saying anything about mid-term elections. In fact, earlier I wrote that both parties have been guilty of celebrating "permanent political realignments" after temporary political victories and that they have been usually wrong.

I have been trained as a social scientist. Of course as a normal human being, there are trends I prefer to see. But there are trends that are occurring whether I prefer or not. You know, the objective truth. I know the difference between the two. You seem not to, because you make all kinds of assertions without evidence (few women elected in VA? It must be sexism, of course! Couldn't be something else. My daughter and her friends choose career over children? We are turning into Europe!) to fit your particular weltanschauung. What's worse, you assume that others do the same. I think psychologists call that "projection." Thankfully, some of us are capable of separating what we desire and what actually is.

What's amusing about all this is that the recent hispanic immigrants are heavily skewing the birthrate and religiosity statistics in your direction and yet your right wing friends want to drive them out and wall them off. You should be throwing open the borders.

See, this is where your (mistaken) assumptions get you in trouble again.

I am extremely pro-immigration. I think immigration has been a net positive for this country in a variety of ways. The key caveat here is, however, that I favor LEGAL, orderly immigration, because illegality and lack of order have an extremely corrosive effect on society that far outweighs any short-term economic benefits over the long horizon.

As Cicero wrote: legum servi sumus ut liberi esse possimus.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

Who are "you folks"? Are your racist tendencies coming out again? I want to talk data and you keep trying to personalize the debate and throw in cheap shots ("b.s. you heard on Fox News" ad naseum).

You folks = those of your political persuasion, regardless of race. Although it is most representative of the Southern white male population - "the base".

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

You folks = those of your political persuasion, regardless of race. Although it is most representative of the Southern white male population - "the base".

How about you address me, and me only, instead of some phantom vast right-wing ("Southern white male") conspiracy?

It would also be helpful if you actually addressed the merits of the contents of my posts (data, analysis, opinions, etc.) instead of ascribing some political motives and groupings that aren't there. You don't recall me blaming "you and your leftie friends" for your own misguided views, do you?

Getting back to the original question, I still don't see in this marathon thread where you present causal evidence that the dearth of state-wide female elected official is due to unique sexism of the Virginia electorate. Without any evidence, that remains a rather bizzarre conjecture on your part.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

How about you address me, and me only, instead of some phantom vast right-wing ("Southern white male") conspiracy?

I've been waiting for you to get home from church. Had to amuse my heathenish self all morning reading my Sunday NY Times.

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

Getting back to the original question, I still don't see in this marathon thread where you present causal evidence that the dearth of state-wide female elected official is due to unique racism of the Virginia electorate. Without any evidence, that remains a rather bizzarre conjecture on your part.

My thread title ends with a question mark. I was hoping others like you would answer the question. I do wish someone other than us guys would weigh in with a woman's perspective.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I do wish someone other than us guys would weigh in with a woman's perspective.

My views have been significantly affected by, and incorporate, my wife's views. Any good traditional husband should put the concerns of his wife above those of his own. That, after all, is the price of assuming the spiritual leadership of the family. Leadership means sacrifice of the self.

A lot of people seem to be under the mistaken assumption that a traditional father-leader of the family is some sort of a self-absorbed bully who does what he wants and ignores the needs and desires of the wife and the rest of the family.