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Old 10-13-2020, 09:40 AM
 
158 posts, read 126,130 times
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The stats simply don't support the panic especially in more rural areas. The last I checked there are still counties down there without a death. Most people in the area choose to because they want a certain lifestyle away from the cities and to more independent. They're multigenerational families who hacked a life for themselves out of land nobody would, or still don't venture into. So maybe they're a bit weary of a virus that, in general, has left them alone.

I'm not trying to start a this stat vs that stat argument I'm just trying to give some insight on the thought process.

The OP says their family hasn't worn a mask since May, pretty much sums it up. Two 70 year olds that have managed to survive "the pandemic" during it's height with no issues so far. Like my father my guess is that they feel like they've made it this far in life without a mask and they have a right to choose to, or not to wear one now. And if you're worried about your children which by all stats are unaffected (please stop typing about the kid here and there) it's your choice to expose them or not.
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Old 10-14-2020, 07:50 PM
 
Location: TN/NC
34,812 posts, read 30,867,528 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad1320 View Post
The stats simply don't support the panic especially in more rural areas. The last I checked there are still counties down there without a death. Most people in the area choose to because they want a certain lifestyle away from the cities and to more independent. They're multigenerational families who hacked a life for themselves out of land nobody would, or still don't venture into. So maybe they're a bit weary of a virus that, in general, has left them alone.

I'm not trying to start a this stat vs that stat argument I'm just trying to give some insight on the thought process.

The OP says their family hasn't worn a mask since May, pretty much sums it up. Two 70 year olds that have managed to survive "the pandemic" during it's height with no issues so far. Like my father my guess is that they feel like they've made it this far in life without a mask and they have a right to choose to, or not to wear one now. And if you're worried about your children which by all stats are unaffected (please stop typing about the kid here and there) it's your choice to expose them or not.
It really depends on what you are looking for.

Here in the extreme southwest VA Ballad Health service area, positivity rate is now up to ~11%. The TN side is worse, but VA is coming up to.

I think it's really a matter of fatigue at this point. I'm going to restaurants and bars. I wear my mask and keep my distance, but even my 85 year old grandma is done with staying at home. The more people get out, the more the virus spreads.
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Old 10-16-2020, 01:15 AM
 
12,003 posts, read 11,801,873 times
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Halifax County Public Schools' central office now has several employees testing positive, apparently related to the golf club outbreak. Local health department is (belatedly??) on it. Schools are still distant-learning for most, which is probably just as well from the sounds of it. Local hospital is getting full...will be keeping an eye on this one for the next couple of weeks.

I know everyone is stir-crazy and ready to get out - but solo, outdoor outings are the way to go right now, not unmasked indoor socializing as usual at the club or other popular gathering places. Just too risky.
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Old 10-17-2020, 10:28 AM
 
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The good news is that, although the case rates from mid July to now are truly double the case rates in March-April, the death rates now are lower by a factor of 2.5 to 3 than in that very bad, initial outbreak in the spring. So the case fatality rate is 5 to 6 times lower in the US. The exact same thing is being seen in the recent sharp increase in cases in Canada and all across Europe; the case numbers are up by a huge factor, but the death rates have increased very little.


So we are doing a better job of detection of cases, the treatments are better, the older populations are being more shielded (particularly in nursing homes where the folks are the weakest and most susceptible), AND the case increases look to be mostly in the younger segments of the population, who have practically no chance of dying. The probabilities of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 are very closely tied to the health and vigor of the individuals immune system and we seem to be doing a much better job of protecting those with the weakest immune systems.


IMHO, there is quite a big PLUS to the infection rate going up amongst the younger population. The reality is that the more folks get infected, the more gain immunity, and eventually slows and limits the spread. That is the whole idea behind vaccination: stimulate the immune system through mild infection or some other mechanism to gain an immunity. Vaccination is better as few or not people die from it but the end result of vaccination or actual infection is the same. So those country club members have actually done themselves and everyone else a favor if no one dies as a result of their actions; now there are that many more 'dead ends' (immune hosts) through which the disease cannot spread in the future.



And the fact that a given area has an outbreak is pretty meaningless after a disease gains a foothold everywhere; that is the universal way in which disease spreads go, in pockets and outbreaks here and there. Spread in rural areas is always slower, since the average rate of person-to-person contact is lower. This was seen in the Spanish Flue epidemic.
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Old 10-17-2020, 10:40 AM
 
158 posts, read 126,130 times
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The virus isn't going away, just like Polio, TB, and others are still around so will this. We need to learn to live with it. In the end Sweden will be right.

And please don't bring your TDS out and complain, simply put, as a country we've done OK. Let's remember "experts" claimed 2,000,000 people would die and in the end I would bet we see a simple uptick in numbers from the typical yearly death count in the US (about 1.8 million). Meaning, many that sadly passed away from COVID probably would have passed away from something else, or because of the lockdowns COVID simply replaced other causes such as the flu.

I think 200,000 people die of staff infections each year, in medical settings.
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Old 10-17-2020, 02:58 PM
 
12,003 posts, read 11,801,873 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nm9stheham View Post
The good news is that, although the case rates from mid July to now are truly double the case rates in March-April, the death rates now are lower by a factor of 2.5 to 3 than in that very bad, initial outbreak in the spring. So the case fatality rate is 5 to 6 times lower in the US. The exact same thing is being seen in the recent sharp increase in cases in Canada and all across Europe; the case numbers are up by a huge factor, but the death rates have increased very little.


So we are doing a better job of detection of cases, the treatments are better, the older populations are being more shielded (particularly in nursing homes where the folks are the weakest and most susceptible), AND the case increases look to be mostly in the younger segments of the population, who have practically no chance of dying. The probabilities of hospitalization and death from COVID-19 are very closely tied to the health and vigor of the individuals immune system and we seem to be doing a much better job of protecting those with the weakest immune systems.


IMHO, there is quite a big PLUS to the infection rate going up amongst the younger population. The reality is that the more folks get infected, the more gain immunity, and eventually slows and limits the spread. That is the whole idea behind vaccination: stimulate the immune system through mild infection or some other mechanism to gain an immunity. Vaccination is better as few or not people die from it but the end result of vaccination or actual infection is the same. So those country club members have actually done themselves and everyone else a favor if no one dies as a result of their actions; now there are that many more 'dead ends' (immune hosts) through which the disease cannot spread in the future.

And the fact that a given area has an outbreak is pretty meaningless after a disease gains a foothold everywhere; that is the universal way in which disease spreads go, in pockets and outbreaks here and there. Spread in rural areas is always slower, since the average rate of person-to-person contact is lower. This was seen in the Spanish Flue epidemic.
The majority of the county club people in Halifax Co. are not the younger population. Many of them are well over 60, and are prominent in the community. Very conservative, comfortably stuck in their comfortable ruts and hard to dislodge or even persuade that the pandemic is real - until they experience it themselves or see it hit someone close to them. Sadly, that's very likely to be happening now or very shortly, since it's about two weeks since the big blowout birthday party was held inside the golf club - 60 to 80 people, no masks, no social distancing.

Last I heard, at least twelve cases of Covid-19 were tied to that celebration. Probably more by now, as the local papers don't seem to be doing follow-ups other than reporting that the public schools' central office also had several cases, apparently related to those at the golf club. Maybe Monday's online papers will include more about this completely avoidable Covid flare.

Even after being notified that they had been exposed, many continued their usual habits, going to work, socializing, shopping, etc., all while unmasked and denying that there was any danger. Even a few who felt ill continued as usual and refused to be tested. The local hospital is already close to capacity, and is expecting more Covid-19 patients within the next couple of weeks, or so I understand. When it fills up, patients will need to be taken elsewhere, a dangerous business for patients who need to be in the ICU (as well as dangerous for those who are transporting them).

Herd immunity is not a viable option and will lead to vastly increased deaths. A genuine, tested, effective vaccine is key, and until one is available, masking, social distancing, washing hands and avoiding crowds, especially indoors, is the best we have available. The country club party-goers did none of these, as far as I can learn (other than probably washing their hands as usual, but not any more than usual).

I've attended social gatherings of this kind in Halifax County, and I know how they roll - lots of liquor, lots of handsomely dressed and well-groomed gracious and mannerly people, lots of conversation (sports reign, especially college football), families who've known one another very well and been friends for multiple generations, delicious (and fattening) finger food, beautifully served on silver trays, fresh flowers on all the tables, pretty table linens...these things don't change. If it's a celebration or a funeral feast, expect lots of hugs of the honoree or the bereaved. Maybe a few cheek-kisses.

Very pleasant, very cozy, if also very predictable. That sameness can be comforting and can feel timeless - what decade are we in, again? Could have sworn it was 1955! So to have this pleasant custom interrupted by something as rude and class-defiant as a pandemic - well, it is easier to just carry on as usual, just like previous generations did.

It would be interesting to research social patterns in Southside Virginia during the 1918 flu epidemic/pandemic. My young great uncle, a Halifax native, died in the fall of 1918 - he was a veteran, and close to being engaged to a lovely young lady. My youngest uncle was born a couple of years later, and was named for him - that name endures in two more generations of my family. I have the young couple's courtship photographs from that last summer, and knowing what happened to them within a couple of months later is heart-breaking...I wish present-day Halifaxians knew his story.

Poe's "The Masque of the Red Death" comes to mind, in view of this recent demonstration of entitlement and denial. A nicely bound copy would have been a very appropriate birthday present.
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Old 10-17-2020, 07:27 PM
 
4,086 posts, read 2,390,303 times
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People forget. This is the 70th anniversary of the "summer without children." Wytheville was hit with a particularly deadly form of polio in 1950 (polio usually did not kill). Out of about 5,300 people almost 200 got polio before it was contained. Children were kept locked inside. SW VA is very vulnerable, but now like then, they think their isolation protects them. Almost 1,500 kids got the disease in 1950 in the state; one of my playmates died of it. I remember that clearly, twins were very unusual back then and her twin lived.
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Old 10-18-2020, 05:03 PM
 
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The worst outbreak in Dare County NC was in early July and sprang from a beach party of mostly 18-30 year olds, and who were not from wealthy families. The same attitudes of entitlement and denial that is being attributed to the Halifax CC applies: 'don't care', 'tired of this nonsense', ' won't happen to us', etc. was the attitude. Being youngsters, they later added defiance of the county health officials to self-isolate to their list of sins. Exactly the same outcome, with a completely different socio-economic group.

Reporting this type of outbreak source IMHO helps to show others that 'yes, it can happen to YOU'. But singling one group and situation for what seems like special criticism does no good for anyone. On that basis, you could broadly criticize blacks for the one funeral that was the source of the huge early outbreak in SW GA, or all Europeans because of the visitors from there who brought it to a wedding in Sun Valley ID. The same close socializing, 'lots of hugs' and so forth would have taken place.

The germs do not care who they grab as the next host, and like drug-addiction, it can and will hit people in all walks of life.

Yes, keep your distance, and don't let your guard down. I have raised a flag of concern a couple of time with my wife when she is considering accepting an invitation to go to a restaurant with a friend. Sometimes she goes and is careful but she has also declined a couple of invitations; I ask her to 'keep the odds down'.

As for herd immunity.... the idea that there will be 'massive deaths' as we move along that path with no vaccine have not proven out, and the case fatality rate has dropped roughly 5-fold in the US as discussed. Excess deaths in the US due to this virus versus no virus is shown on this CDC webpage. You can look state-by state and there were VERY serious excess deaths in NY for a month, but overall it has dropped in the US, and in VA, it has not been nearly as bad as some might like to believe. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm



Vaccination IS a better way to go, but we all need to realize that not everyone will get vaccinated (unless we have mandatory vaccination) and not all vaccinations will be effective. So as someone well noted above, this is disease going to stick around for a while. Anything that occurs to increase the numbers of immune people will help, and it seems self-evident that this includes any infections without deaths prior to a vaccine being available.

Last edited by nm9stheham; 10-18-2020 at 05:38 PM..
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Old 10-26-2020, 10:28 AM
 
21 posts, read 30,129 times
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UPDATE: My mom has tested positive.

I was supposed to bring my family back to Roanoke/Franklin County this past weekend for my niece's 6th birthday. Called my mom when we were getting ready to leave on Friday afternoon and she said, I think I might have Covid, so I can't make the party either. I immediately call my sister and ask the last time she'd been around my mom. She said it's fine, it's probably not Covid. I kept pushing her, she finally said within 48 hours. I told her we weren't coming and that it's pretty messed up that neither were' going to let us know. My sister went ahead with the birthday party 10 kids, and their parents, all knowing that she'd been around my mom, who is positive. Unreal. This is why Covid will never get better. My sister said she does not care, that we're being too cautious, sheep, etc. She said she is no longer going to be inconvenienced by Covid.
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Old 10-26-2020, 11:14 AM
 
439 posts, read 419,382 times
Reputation: 616
I hope your mom recovers. But, we decided we are keeping ourselves safe and can't pay attention to what anyone else thinks. This was your truest statement.
This is why Covid will never get better.

I am so tired of people acting like wearing a mask and washing hands is the end of the world.

Stay safe!
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