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Old 12-01-2021, 10:52 AM
 
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I find your boundary areas very odd....can you say why you placed the boundaries in those locations? And where are you getting data that breaks down population specifically by those boundaries?
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Old 12-01-2021, 12:25 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spencgr View Post
I find your boundary areas very odd....can you say why you placed the boundaries in those locations? And where are you getting data that breaks down population specifically by those boundaries?
The boundaries are based on official Census Tract and Census Block Group levels of data. Some localities like Richmond, Norfolk, Alexandria, and Arlington extend beyond just one Census Tract/Census Block Group so I used a combination of 2 or Census Tracts to try and encompass the downtown area for these cities. Most of the information came from two sources. https://data.dispatch.com/census. In the cases of three cities (Charlottesville, Petersburg and Danville) did I use the Census Block Group since it better encompassed the downtown than the Census Tract

Here are the specific sources:

-Downtown Lynchburg (single Census Tract plus a two Census Blocks to encompass City Market Lofts and Gish Flats both of which are a part of the official Downtown Lynchburg Association Boundary):https://data.dispatch.com/census/tot...0-51680000500/
-Downtown Roanoke (one Census Tract): https://data.dispatch.com/census/tot...0-51770001100/
-Downtown Richmond (combination of multiple Census Tracts): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
-Downtown Norfolk boundary (combination of two Census Tracts): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
-Downtown Petersburg boundary (one Census Block Group): See Below for 2010 and 2020 Census Block Group maps used for difference
-Downtown Alexandria boundary (combination of multiple Census Tracts): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
-Downtown Danville boundary (one Census Block Group): See Below for 2010 and 2020 Census Block Group maps used for difference
-Downtown Portsmouth boundary (one Census Tract): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
-Downtown Arlington boundary (combination of multiple Census Tracts): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site
-Downtown Staunton boundary (one Census Tract): https://data.dispatch.com/census/tot...0-51790000100/
-Downtown Charlottesville boundary (one Census Block Group): See Below for 2010 and 2020 Census Block Group maps used for difference
-Downtown Fredericksburg boundary (one Census Tract): Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

2010 Census Block Group data: maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=306a3cf93cc543a996d0582918b09268

2020 Census Block Group data: maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=d1105f1e65a743cc84fc12c034625fc7

2020 Blocks data (only used for Lynchburg): maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=b3642e91b49548f5af772394b0537681

You will need to sign up for an ESRI ArcGIS account to view the above three links.

If you don't want to sign up, here are the Block Group boundaries for Charlottesville, Petersburg, and Danville used from those maps:

Charlottesville

Source: ESRI

Petersburg:

Source: ESRI

Danville:

Source: ESRI

A note on ESRI products: Data was downloaded from the U.S. Census Bureau FTP site, imported into SAS format and joined to the 2020 TIGER boundaries. Boundaries are sourced from the 2020 TIGER/Line Geodatabases. Boundaries have been projected into Web Mercator and each attribute has been given a clear descriptive alias name. No alterations have been made to the vertices of the data.

Hope that helps!

Last edited by Yac; 12-07-2021 at 11:53 PM..
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Old 12-01-2021, 12:44 PM
 
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But your Arlington boundaries, don't match up to the census tracks, either. It includes some parts of some census tracks, but not other parts of the same track. And while very impressive research and analysis of data, it's not really meaningful data if the underlying assumptions aren't based in data. What really made me look and question the data is I would say that Arlington doesn't have a downtown at all, and random boundary lines around the courthouse area is meaningless.
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Old 12-01-2021, 12:53 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spencgr View Post
But your Arlington boundaries, don't match up to the census tracks, either. It includes some parts of some census tracks, but not other parts of the same track. And while very impressive research and analysis of data, it's not really meaningful data if the underlying assumptions aren't based in data. What really made me look and question the data is I would say that Arlington doesn't have a downtown at all, and random boundary lines around the courthouse area is meaningless.
Arlington was a bit of a tough cookie since yes there isn't really an official downtown boundary map and doesn't really have one established CBD like most VA Cities. A lot of this is subjective and I suppose you could say center city CBD or general downtown area. I was trying to capture what accounts for the CBD and immediately adjacent areas that could be considered a part of downtown. This was pretty much the best I could find on downtown Arlington:

https://ontheworldmap.com/usa/city/a...ntown-map.html

A lot of this is nuanced. Several of them are based on just one Census Tract or Block Group that encompassed the CBD (like Lynchburg, Danville, Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Portsmouth, and Staunton) and were easier to capture, but ones where I had to combine Census Tracts are more subjective. I could look at this at the smallest granular level at the Census block group level, but it would take a very long time to download and add up all the data and compare the difference.

Last edited by dbcook1; 12-01-2021 at 01:02 PM..
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Old 12-01-2021, 01:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spencgr View Post
But your Arlington boundaries, don't match up to the census tracks, either. It includes some parts of some census tracks, but not other parts of the same track.
Pretty sure the boundary I did matches these tracts:



https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/ed...-_&usp=sharing
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Old 12-01-2021, 01:36 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOVAmtneer82 View Post
Thank you for putting together this detailed analysis- it's an exciting time for Virginia's cities (and in case of Arlington- County but basically also a City). Still looking forward to making a trip down to Lynchburg and seeing downtown and the great places there.
Downtown Lynchburg has definitely come a very long way in just a short period of time. Less than a decade ago there was hardly any restaurants, business, or people living downtown, but now it has become a real destination with nearly $300 million in public/private investment since 2012 (here is an interactive development map I made for downtown Lynchburg https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/1/ed...nY&usp=sharing)

900 new apartments and condos added downtown, three new breweries in the past year and a half (Starr Hill, Champion, and Three Roads), two new wine bars (Reserve and Fratelli) an two new rooftop bars (No 7 Rooftop Bar and Skyline Grill). Plus 26 new restaurants and cafe's have opened since 2013 (highly recommend Grey's, Burg Burritos, and My Dog Duke's Diner when you come). The $29 million restoration of the Academy historic theater has made downtown the focus point for the performing arts. Plus lots of new local shops like Gilded and the Hip Tulip and a recently renewed and streetscaped Main Street with nice wide sidewalks and a beautiful mosaic arrival pad at 12th and Main Streets. Lots of new placemaking improvements too like the Bluffwalk Art Alley and Donna Pocket Park.

Beyond downtown check out Old City Cemetery (oldest public cemetery in Virginia. Check out the Pest house and old hearse carriage), Anne Spencer House and Gardens (just park out front and walk around back to the gardens. It is open to the public for free to see. House of Harlem Renaissance era poet and writer Anne Spencer), Lynchburg Museum at the top of Monument Terrace, Riverside Park and the Alpine trail, and Jefferson's Poplar Forest.

Definitely hit the trails like the Blackwater Creek Trail and James River Heritage Trail. You can rent bikes at Bikes Unlimited and stop at Water Dog for a beer. Good stuff happening downtown so hop you can make it!

Here is a selection of my "Best of Lynchburg" photos:

https://flic.kr/s/aHsmMRdg3J
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Old 12-01-2021, 01:50 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbcook1 View Post
........ A lot of this is subjective.......A lot of this is nuanced.
Yeah, those two words don't really jive with data and facts.
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Old 12-01-2021, 02:05 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mountainrose View Post
This can’t be right for Charlottesville— we’ve had EXPLOSIVE growth for years now.
9% can’t be accurate.
Charlottesville itself only grew by 7% from 2010 - 2020 with most growth occurring in the eastern and southern part of the city (scroll down for map of growth by tract): https://data.dispatch.com/census/tot...nia/050-51540/

Albemarle County grew much faster at 13.5%. However, take 2020 Census results, especially for college towns, with some clear assumptions of error. Since the 2020 Census occurred right during the early part of the pandemic when college campuses had closed down and most students were not allowed to return, it appears that college towns across the country were undercounted as a result. This is more impactful for students living off campus who were still living at home with their parents as a result of the college campuses being closed and universities not able to report students who lived where off-campus as accurately as on-campus students. This is bound to impact places like Charlottesville which has a lot of students living off-campus.

Just to show how bad college towns were likely undercounted because of the pandemic, here are the 2019 Census estimates versus 2020 Census actuals for some select college towns around the US:

Charlottesville
2019 Estimate: 47,266
2020 Census: 46,553
Difference: -713

Harrisonburg
2019 Estimate: 53,016
2020 Census: 51,814
Difference: -1,202

Lynchburg
2019 Estimate: 82,168
2020 Census: 79,009
Difference: -3,159

Radford
2019 Estimate: 18,249
2020 Census: 16,070
Difference: -2,179

Greenville, NC
2019 Estimate: 93,400
2020 Census: 87,521
Difference: -5,879

Boone, NC
2019 Estimate: 19,667
2020 Census: 19,092
Difference: -575

Bloomington, IN
2019 Estimate: 85,755
2020 Census: 79,168
Difference: -6,587

Tuscaloosa, AL
2019 Estimate: 101,129
2020 Census: 99,600
Difference: -1,529

State College, PA
2019 Estimate: 42,160
2020 Census: 40,501
Difference: -1,659
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Old 12-01-2021, 02:09 PM
 
487 posts, read 336,963 times
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Originally Posted by spencgr View Post
Yeah, those two words don't really jive with data and facts.
The facts and data are correct per as accurate as the 2020 Census results are (see my above comment though for some of my thoughts on the accuracy of that with regards to college towns). The boundary for some places (specifically Arlington) are more subjective based on a map of downtown Arlington I found online (https://ontheworldmap.com/usa/city/a...ntown-map.html) since as you said Arlington does not have any kind of official downtown or CBD boundary. Feel free to fool around with those Citypopulation maps. They are pretty cool for seeing change at the Census Tract level.

If for any of these you have a specific border in mind that does not match up with the Census Tract or Block Group provided by the Census, please let me know and I will calculate the change based on the Census Block level change. However, just a couple please as I don't have unlimited amounts of time to focus on such an in-depth analysis. Census blocks are tiny and is a daunting task to agglomerate so many blocks together (in the case of Arlington a single Census block is basically just one apartment building so it is going building by building oof)...

The actual point of this exercise wasn't meant to debate boundary lines which are set by the Census, but to show that in general, 2020 Census information is showing the downtown areas across Virginia grew at a healthy clip including in places like Petersburg and Danville which have up until recently suffered from negative perceptions and population loss (in the last Census Petersburg grew for the first time in decades overall and Danville just barely declined halting decades of steep decline and likely heading towards growth in 2030).


Last edited by dbcook1; 12-01-2021 at 03:09 PM..
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Old 12-04-2021, 09:23 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spencgr View Post
Yeah, those two words don't really jive with data and facts.
If the info seems offensive to you, why don't you look through the data and come back with alternatives.
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