Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
3D structure printing, known more commonly as 'contour crafting', is the future of residential and commercial construction. It will essentially remove nearly all labor work for the construction of houses. By the erection of a gigantic robot structure over the build site, it can be programmed to construct intricate customized houses within days. Proof of concept has already been shown by the University of South California. Although practical mass usage for 'luxury homes' is still at least a decade off, it has some major implications to the future of the world, to include PG County.
What are the effects? There are three immediate expected results from such a system.
(1) House prices will drop like a rock. When you have robot-constructed comparables that are just as solidly (if not better) built than traditionally-made houses, it means that you will likely see a drop in the value of your real estate holdings.
(2) It will become cost-feasible to just tear down the outdated, out of code houses in various parts of PG county. Developers can buy out the area and not suffer as large a set-back in rebuilding an area. Likewise, private owners would be able to rebuild their house on their land from the ground-up in a feasible way.
(3) The mortgage and house construction industries will see a rapid downsizing, much akin to the downsizing of the American agricultural system experienced in the 20th century.
Youtube seminar at TED by the developer of Contour Crafting, Dr. Behrokh Khoshnevis
I have mixed feelings about this. I think the homes may very well end up being of higher quality (can you imagine humans still putting together cars entirely by hand on a large scale?) but it will cost many Americans their jobs.
While this is just par for the course and other innovations will lead to more jobs, without out knowing for sure where they would be or what they would be doing it's hard to really have a firm opinion on this one way or the other.
The other question is. While it will make it cheaper to tear down old homes and rebuild new ones, how would this be of specific benefit to PG? The same could easily be said for Fairfax County or any other county so I don't see it leading to any more growth in PG than anywhere else.
Also, if building the homes are cheaper and therefore the cost of new homes are cheaper, would there be enough margin to make it beneficial to revitalizing older areas vs. the urban sprawl we're currently seeing?
You're right, this would affect the whole world, not just PG. I just mention PG because it is the county I care about, as that is where I call home. PG has many areas that are in heavy need of a facelift, and it may be of better value to just tear it down and rebuild than to renovate deteriorating housing.
I have a problem with the way you keep using this idea of gentrifying Prince George's County. There are a lot of places in Prince George's County that are nice. Gentrifying isn't going to solve the issues. When you say this I can't help but think, again that you think the county should drive the black residents out. I mean there are a lot of wealthy places here. The real issue isn't the money, it's the inadequate school system, the high crime (which is improving) and the lack of high paying jobs. Without those things, people aren't going to buy here. I mean think about it like this, if you tear down old run down neighborhoods and replace them with more expensive, newer nicer places, what would make them want to move here as opposed to Fairfax? Arlington? Montgomery County?
DC is able to do gentrification because it is point blank the nation's capital. They could literally have the worse schools in the country and high crime but people will still move there. It comes down to the fact that DC has and will always have jobs and has unique elements that no other place in the world has. PG doesn't have that. So it can't work that easy. It also doesn't help PG to gentrify when we as a county don't have a lot of money. 71% of the revenue from this county comes from residential taxes. Because of the high foreclosure rate, this county has been at a deficit. When you have a deficit you don't have money to buy up old neighborhoods. Not only that but 71% of residential taxes means there is a need for more commercial real estate not more residential real estate. We need less houses and more businesses. That is the real issue here.
PG can't attract those employers unless they fix the issues with crime and the school system that will make this a more attractive place for people to live and work. I think you have a lot of passion for this county, but I would recommend you do more research about the issues in this county. Gentrifying is not going to change anything. If people did that, we would probably never get to the potential this county has.
pgtitans, I find it equally curious that you regularly make the association of the word 'gentrification' with driving out the black community. PG county does indeed have some of the wealthiest people; Fort Washington for instance has the highest black median income in the entire nation. Gentrification has nothing to do with race. The fact of the matter is is that you have a high residential dense county that has aging structures which for whatever reason cannot be maintained or have outlived their useful life. This system is simply an easy way to address that issue.
Additionally, one of the primary applications intended for the contour crafting system is for commercial application. With low initial cost on the construction of structures coupled with some of the lowest land prices relative to the other areas directly adjacent to DC proper it will make the area all that more enticing for encroaching businesses.
Although crime and the school system are indeed issues that PG county will need to address, it does not mean that they are the only things of importance. Furthermore, that rhetoric has been used endlessly from current and past administrations; what has become of it? Failure after failure; incompetent coverage by the police and a school system that continues to be thrown money at but metrics show little improvement. Perhaps looking at the solution from a differing paradigm, such as changing quality of life and cultural attitudes, will have these things fall into place. This may be one of the keys to that point.
pgtitans, I find it equally curious that you regularly make the association of the word 'gentrification' with driving out the black community. PG county does indeed have some of the wealthiest people; Fort Washington for instance has the highest black median income in the entire nation. Gentrification has nothing to do with race. The fact of the matter is is that you have a high residential dense county that has aging structures which for whatever reason cannot be maintained or have outlived their useful life. This system is simply an easy way to address that issue.
Additionally, one of the primary applications intended for the contour crafting system is for commercial application. With low initial cost on the construction of structures coupled with some of the lowest land prices relative to the other areas directly adjacent to DC proper it will make the area all that more enticing for encroaching businesses.
Although crime and the school system are indeed issues that PG county will need to address, it does not mean that they are the only things of importance. Furthermore, that rhetoric has been used endlessly from current and past administrations; what has become of it? Failure after failure; incompetent coverage by the police and a school system that continues to be thrown money at but metrics show little improvement. Perhaps looking at the solution from a differing paradigm, such as changing quality of life and cultural attitudes, will have these things fall into place. This may be one of the keys to that point.
In any case, this is the future.
What will gentrification accomplish other than driving black people out of this county? I mean it will literally accomplish nothing else, which is why I'm bringing this up. What makes you think that this county needs to be gentrified in the first place? There are run down neighborhoods everywhere. It sounds kind of selfish to say oh I don't like that neighborhood let's tear it up and build a better new one. How do you think the people who are living there will feel? Not only that, but think of the cost the county will endure with lawsuits, bad publicity and other things that will surely cost more money. If gentrification was as simple as you make it sound, it would happen more often.
How can you say this county has a high residential dense county? It's a huge county. There are many different facets to this county. Some of it is indeed high density but there are a lot of parts that are the direct opposite. There is also only aging structure in certain parts. There will always be places that have that issue, but overall you don't just replace places just because.
What else is more important to this county than the issue of school system and crime? Why do you think you were able to find such a good deal on a home? If these weren't singularly the most important issues in this county then you would pay Fairfax County prices to live here, but that's not the case. Fixing these two issues is literally the difference in making this a viable and attractive county. Rushern Baker knows this. That's why he wants the casino. He wants to put more money in services such as the police force and the school system to improve these two areas. No doubt about it, that is the reason why he wants that money.
: the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces poorer residents
Weird...it never mentions race. So why was race brought into the discussion unless somebody is making the assumption that blacks are not capable of earning a higher income?
3D structure printing, known more commonly as 'contour crafting', is the future of residential and commercial construction. It will essentially remove nearly all labor work for the construction of houses. By the erection of a gigantic robot structure over the build site, it can be programmed to construct intricate customized houses within days. Proof of concept has already been shown by the University of South California. Although practical mass usage for 'luxury homes' is still at least a decade off, it has some major implications to the future of the world, to include PG County.
What are the effects? There are three immediate expected results from such a system.
(1) House prices will drop like a rock. When you have robot-constructed comparables that are just as solidly (if not better) built than traditionally-made houses, it means that you will likely see a drop in the value of your real estate holdings.
This is incorrect. This will have no bearing on home values. Especially in older more populated areas. Remember, location drives home values more than supply. Second, how does that work in an urban area? where the neighborhoods are not cookie cutter and has lots of trees? Most of the established neighborhoods, while having old housing stock, have character and most importantly mature vegetation. Kinda hard to use robots in this situation.
Quote:
(2) It will become cost-feasible to just tear down the outdated, out of code houses in various parts of PG county. Developers can buy out the area and not suffer as large a set-back in rebuilding an area. Likewise, private owners would be able to rebuild their house on their land from the ground-up in a feasible way.
Not so. See above. Can you imagine trying to rebuild a house with mature trees on either side? And good luck tearing down the trees. The neighbors wouldn't appreciate that very much. In addition, historic districts are more sought after than new developments because they have character and a history. Therefore, they are protected from being torn down and rebuilt. And it is easier to refurbish a house than to start from scratch.
Quote:
(3) The mortgage and house construction industries will see a rapid downsizing, much akin to the downsizing of the American agricultural system experienced in the 20th century.
Only if the population somehow stopped growing. As long as the population increases, there will always be a need for more housing. As it stands now, the movement is towards smart growth. So, there will be a tendency to grow close to city centers and to build up. Not out. I doubt there will be robots that could build multifamily units.
Quote:
What do you think about the future of PG county in connection to this emergent technology? Discuss.
In my opinion, I think this technology has better use in third world countries where the housing stock is not as great as that in the united states. As you can see from the video, the presentation didn't show established neighborhoods in the suburbs of major cities. It showed people who didn't have housing at all. I think this is what the video was getting at. Sure, there may be uses for projects such as habitat for humanity, but there is no place for it in established neighborhoods. If you notice, single family neighborhoods rarely get razed and rebuilt unless they are replacing public housing. Perhaps out west where they are building new tracts of housing developments there is a use.
As far as PG is concerned, if any "old" neighborhood gets rebuilt, it will be the old style garden apartment complexes that will be replaced with more urban style developments such as places like Silver Spring, Rockville, Gaithersburg, etc. They will be associated with multifamily with retail and town homes, etc. For example, what is happening behind PG Plaza Mall with Belcrest Plaza.
BELTSVILLE, Md., Aug. 9, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Grady Management, Inc., a full-service, residential and commercial real estate consulting firm, will break ground on a new luxury apartment building in Hyattsville, MD, this September 14th. Situated along Toledo Terrace, the mid-rise multifamily building will feature 283 apartment homes. Named 3350 at Alterra, the residential project is the first phase of a mixed-use, planned redevelopment formerly referred to as Belcrest Plaza.
Friends, I just wanted to share some exciting technology and discuss it. We're neighbors here, we shouldn't be taking on argumentative tones. That said, here's my rebuttals, hehe.
pgtitans: ksmart said it best; gentrification does not discriminate based on race; it discriminates based on socio-economic status. I also hope that you are not accusing me of being selfish for wanting to change poor areas to middle-class areas (which based on my earlier comment on the socio-economic health of the black community) would improve the health of the community as a whole (i.e. less crime, better schools, higher house values). Don't get me wrong, I'm not even advocating displacing the poor under typical definitions of gentrification! In my original post, I was saying that people living in substandard housing can find a way to afford remaking their houses with this technology.
adelphi_sky: Here's my point-by-point rebuttal to your last post:
(1) Although I agree with you that highly desirable areas(i.e. city centers, downtowns, historic communities) will not be significantly impacted, when you're talking about the suburbs there will indeed be a reduction in price. You already see it as part of the consequences of the housing burst: when foreclosures/short sales with their cheaper asking prices flood a community, what does that do to every other house? It lowers it (yes partly because they may have been neglected) primarily because as the National Realtor Association has stated that values are dictated based on the assumption that consumers will generally affix their decisions based on rational processes. In other words, if someone sees your nice house at 400K but sees a short sale for a similar house in the same neighborhood for 200K, what do you think they will go for? Again, when in super high desirable areas there won't be as much an issue, because the real cost is land. But considering the base cost of my house about 350K (not including the add-ons, bumping it up another 100K) was purchased by the builder for about 30K, it shows that the real cost was attributed to the cost of the house itself.
(2) Your statement about trees and space appears to be based on the premise that this technology cannot be customized into very specific situations to include rebuilding in a tight space of a mature community. That will remain to be seen.
(3) The population is greater today than it was 50 years ago. Is the agricultural economy greater today than 50 years ago? You make a simplistic argument here, my friend. Technological innovation will reduce the size of the industry. Nowhere did I say it will eliminate it. Again, since you are specifically thinking about city centers only (for some reason), I will say that I agree with you that the industry will move toward redeveloping residential areas around those highly desirable areas and rebuild them in the form of high-rises. This technology would be far superior for that type of application than to use traditional building methods. If you disagree with that, then you obviously have never lived next to a high-rise being built -- I have and let me tell you, it's scary! Also, I don't understand your statement about not building out. It makes me question whether you actually have been analyzing building trends in what is dubbed the 'Greater DC' region.
I agree with you that this application is great for developing nations, and indeed it was the original reason for its conceptualization. But if you watched the whole TED seminar that I posted, you will see that there are plans from the original creator himself to have this adapt to all forms of building, to include luxury residential homes to commercial buildings. I don't agree with your opinion that anything that gets rebuilt will only come in the form of multi-family apartments.
: the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces poorer residents
Weird...it never mentions race. So why was race brought into the discussion unless somebody is making the assumption that blacks are not capable of earning a higher income?
Because that is the only thing that would change, it has nothing to do with the definition. I know exactly what gentrification is but you have to understand how it would affect Prince George's County. As adelphi_sky said, the prices won't change, the only thing it will do is drive out certain demographics of people who happen to be mostly black. We seen it happen with gentrification in DC. The people you are primarily pushing out are poor black people. Remember this is a predominantly black county, when you decide to 're-do' neighborhoods you are indirectly affecting black people who may live in some of those poorer places. I'm not suggesting that this is racism, but the elements of race is real and probably would give greater ground to lawsuits.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
