How far will gentrification go in DC? (apartment complexes, foreclosures)

[Tiger Beer]

Seems like quite a few neighborhoods are changing drastically in very recent years...wondering how far other posters might project it will go.

There also seems to be a push-and-shove to it, right? As much as some areas change, there are still pockets of strong resistance.

What are some of the posters projections on all of this for the city of DC?

You gotta admit, there are some GORGEOUS GORGEOUS housing stock in the District...and with all the 'complaints' about sterile VA...and more and more people seem to be implying that MD is 'changing for the worse'...the impression I am getting anyways. Meaning the conclusion might go to 'DC or MD, what's the difference?'

It seems with that combination going...DC might gentrify quite a bit more...maybe significantly so? Or is that just not a likely scenario?

[HurricaneDC]

Maryland will change for the worse over my lifeless corpse.

[citypatrol610]

If gentrification is having a positive effect on DC in terms of better quality of living and lower crime, I say I hope it sweeps through the whole city.

[TheseGoTo11]

Originally Posted by citypatrol610

If gentrification is having a positive effect on DC in terms of better quality of living and lower crime, I say I hope it sweeps through the whole city.

I do too!

We've only had 25 homicides west of the Anacostia this year, with a population of 450k, and I could see that number dropping to 15-20 in a couple years, which would work out to 3-4 per 100,000 - the same as "safe" cities like Seattle, Manhattan, London, and Toronto.

[goozer]

I think the "gentrification" wave, which has been booming for several years, is going to stall out for several years along with the city's housing market. It was the booming housing market that brought it on, and now that the market is in the dumps the changes should slow down a good deal. Hopefully, we don't see neighborhoods regress as foreclosures, etc, take their toll. DC has been fortunate though. There has not been the crazy job losses here that have prompted mass foreclosures in other cities.

[KStreetQB]

Originally Posted by goozer

I think the "gentrification" wave, which has been booming for several years, is going to stall out for several years along with the city's housing market. It was the booming housing market that brought it on, and now that the market is in the dumps the changes should slow down a good deal. Hopefully, we don't see neighborhoods regress as foreclosures, etc, take their toll. DC has been fortunate though. There has not been the crazy job losses here that have prompted mass foreclosures in other cities.

So you're saying that despite gentrification charging forward during the worst parts of the housing and economic crisis over the last three years, we're going to stall out now?

This prediction would have had more credibility in 2007 and it still would have been wrong.

[goozer]

Originally Posted by KStreetQB

So you're saying that despite gentrification charging forward during the worst parts of the housing and economic crisis over the last three years, we're going to stall out now?

This prediction would have had more credibility in 2007 and it still would have been wrong.

There is a lag effect on building that I think you have to take into account. I can think of apartment complexes (urban, yuppie, loft-style places) that were built in Logan Heights and places a bit further east where construction was completed in 2005-07, and the buildings never sold out all their units. I suspect many of those units are still not sold. Fact of the matter is that gentrification doesn't happen in a vacuum. There are a variety of factors that come into play, not the least of which is the strength of the housing market (a Whold Foods or Target moving to the neighborhood is another biggie). I'm not aware of too many places that have turned from crime-infested neighborhoods in 2007 to wonderful family neighborhoods in 2010. But certainly if you feel that gentrification is in full swing and will continue in the next few years, you would be well served to buy a home in a downtrodden part of town, and then double your money in 3-5 years. Me, I prefer to stay on the sideline. Cheers.

[TheseGoTo11]

Originally Posted by goozer

I'm not aware of too many places that have turned from crime-infested neighborhoods in 2007 to wonderful family neighborhoods in 2010.

NE is full of construction - H Street, NY Ave/NoMA, and RI Ave, these places were all hell in 2007

[Avtomat Kalashnikova]

I dont care if it sweeps Ward 7 and 8, as long as it doesn't become another Columbia Heights. Way too expensive for people over in those areas to afford it.

[KStreetQB]

Originally Posted by goozer

There is a lag effect on building that I think you have to take into account. I can think of apartment complexes (urban, yuppie, loft-style places) that were built in Logan Heights and places a bit further east where construction was completed in 2005-07, and the buildings never sold out all their units. I suspect many of those units are still not sold. Fact of the matter is that gentrification doesn't happen in a vacuum. There are a variety of factors that come into play, not the least of which is the strength of the housing market (a Whold Foods or Target moving to the neighborhood is another biggie). I'm not aware of too many places that have turned from crime-infested neighborhoods in 2007 to wonderful family neighborhoods in 2010. But certainly if you feel that gentrification is in full swing and will continue in the next few years, you would be well served to buy a home in a downtrodden part of town, and then double your money in 3-5 years. Me, I prefer to stay on the sideline. Cheers.

You're not on the sidelines. You aren't even in the stadium.

My family is in the development business. Q1 2007 - Q3 2009 were the worst years we have ever seen. Financing is just finally becoming available again and private investment is really moving now. So your prediction that things are going to stall NOW in DC is absurd to me considering the cataclysmic state of affairs the last three years.

As I said, you would have still been wrong had you made the same prediction in 2007. Neighborhoods like Shaw, Petworth and Columbia heights (sorry, never heard of Logan Heights) have continued to transform during the last three years; mostly with young homeowners taking advantage of record low mortgage rates, attractive tax incentives and deflated prices.

I live in Shaw, one of those transitional neighborhoods. During that hellish 3 years all but 4 houses on my block sold to young first time homeowners, including 4 shells that have been abandoned for 40 years. This week there are crews working on 7 houses.

The 'gentrification' of my neighborhood has nothing to do with monster condo projects going up all around us the last three years. Those projects couldn't get financing. It has everything to do with the neighborhood being anchored by a Metro station walking distance to the White House and Golden Triangle with townhouses available at sub $300/sqft prices. Go five blocks west, and that jumps to $600/sqft. It's not hard to figure out why people are investing in the neighborhood.

Now that financing is flowing again the large projects are starting to move. O Street Market and Howard Theater broke ground last week and the Convention Center Marriott will break ground in October.

I don't 'feel' like gentrification is in full swing. I see it every day with real money flowing into the area and real dirt moving. I think it's you are relying on what you 'feel' sitting out there in Virginia.