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Most parents would prefer to raise their children in a HOUSE. A house with a front yard and back yard. A house where you don't have to worry about your screaming kids waking up the neighbors. Condominiums and leasing units provide tight quarters. Town houses are not ideal because of privacy concerns and little green space. Parents want the space for their children and themselves. It's just part of the American Dream.
. . . .
Parents with young children are well aware that the suburban counties (Montgomery, Fairfax, Arlington, and Loudoun Counties in particular) offer far superior public schools than what is offered through DCPS. Perhaps the parents can stay in DC and send their kids to a private school. But what happens if one parent loses a job and the private school tuition becomes financially unfeasible. If those parents lived in Fairfax or Montgomery County, they would feel reassured that they can fall back on top notch public school programs. Parents living in The District...not so much.
The bottom line is this: DC is (and always has been) ideal for single people, empty nest types, married but childless couples and short-term residents. Adding children to the household changes the dynamic because the parents will need more SPACE, more SAFETY, and excellent PUBLIC SCHOOLS. The prosperous suburbs in VA and MD can offer all three.
I think when the 2020 census is published, you will not see a big change in the number of families settling in the District.
I think that the pure data regarding number of families, or numbers of children, may not change, but that the reality will be that there will be a large increase in the number of middle/upper middle class parents that stay in the city after they have children.
The american dream is changing. Many people, parents included, value time more than a white picket fence. I know that I have absolutely no desire to spend an hour or more a day commuting. Nor do I have any desire to maintain a house. So, we will stay in a condo. With our child. And, we are not the only ones that are choosing to do so. Morever, there are many more that are choosing townhouses.
A freestanding house in a good school district would cost either (1) a million dollars plus real estate taxes or (2) at least an hour and a half of daily commute time that could be spent with my child. And, most importantly, it would cost us our walkable lifestyle. I don't want my child growing up dependant on a car - I want her walking. And, I want to be able to stumble out our door afterschool or on weekend mornings and be exposed to the amazing things that this city has to offer.
On one recent, somewhat typical, Saturday morning, we woke up, went to ballet, stopped by the national theater for a free kid's play,
went to a festival, learned about ocean animals at the natural history museum, went to an art museum for a story reading and art project to learn about jazz, met up with friends in the park, and went out for ethiopian food for dinner. All without plans, and all without ever entering a car. We can only do this while living in the city.
Schools are an issue, but as class sizes and testing prep increases everywhere, many of the previously-idealized systems are showing faults. So, instead of moving far away from their walkable lives to these schools with uncertain futures, parents are stepping up and creating their own schools. New charters are proliferating, and parents are flocking. Parents are also committing themselves to neighborhood schools and bringing about change. And, when all else fails, they send their kids to private. The original article was about young lawyers and lobbyists making the city cool. Presumably, when these people have children, they will be slightly more seasoned lawyers and lobbyists, and although it may be tough, they might just have the funds to send their kids to private schools. But, many are first trying the growing public educational options that exist in the city, hoping to be able to use the saved commute times to teach their children even more themselves.
My family is not alone in this. There is a strong movement of families that want to stay, families that are going to stay. I anticipate that you will see a big change in the coming years in this regard. In fact, if you look carefully, you will see that it is already happening.
I think that the pure data regarding number of families, or numbers of children, may not change, but that the reality will be that there will be a large increase in the number of middle/upper middle class parents that stay in the city after they have children.
The american dream is changing. Many people, parents included, value time more than a white picket fence. I know that I have absolutely no desire to spend an hour or more a day commuting. Nor do I have any desire to maintain a house. So, we will stay in a condo. With our child. And, we are not the only ones that are choosing to do so. Morever, there are many more that are choosing townhouses.
A freestanding house in a good school district would cost either (1) a million dollars plus real estate taxes or (2) at least an hour and a half of daily commute time that could be spent with my child. And, most importantly, it would cost us our walkable lifestyle. I don't want my child growing up dependant on a car - I want her walking. And, I want to be able to stumble out our door afterschool or on weekend mornings and be exposed to the amazing things that this city has to offer.
On one recent, somewhat typical, Saturday morning, we woke up, went to ballet, stopped by the national theater for a free kid's play,
went to a festival, learned about ocean animals at the natural history museum, went to an art museum for a story reading and art project to learn about jazz, met up with friends in the park, and went out for ethiopian food for dinner. All without plans, and all without ever entering a car. We can only do this while living in the city.
Schools are an issue, but as class sizes and testing prep increases everywhere, many of the previously-idealized systems are showing faults. So, instead of moving far away from their walkable lives to these schools with uncertain futures, parents are stepping up and creating their own schools. New charters are proliferating, and parents are flocking. Parents are also committing themselves to neighborhood schools and bringing about change. And, when all else fails, they send their kids to private. The original article was about young lawyers and lobbyists making the city cool. Presumably, when these people have children, they will be slightly more seasoned lawyers and lobbyists, and although it may be tough, they might just have the funds to send their kids to private schools. But, many are first trying the growing public educational options that exist in the city, hoping to be able to use the saved commute times to teach their children even more themselves.
My family is not alone in this. There is a strong movement of families that want to stay, families that are going to stay. I anticipate that you will see a big change in the coming years in this regard. In fact, if you look carefully, you will see that it is already happening.
Inshallah.
I sense a fair amount of projection of your own aspirations onto the larger population, as if you could post "Let's all move to DC and raise our upper-middle class kids in the city" on Twitter and wake up with 1000 new neighbors with toddlers and ZipCar memberships tomorrow.
Maybe it will happen; maybe not. If someone's job isn't in downtown DC, but instead out near the Dulles Toll Road or off Route 270, they won't have the same motivation as you to move or stay in the city. Most likely, you'd just get some transfer of the lawyer/lobbyist class from Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase to NW, and a handful of additional charter schools. These folks would be making a rational choice that, for them, the benefits of shorter commutes and lower transportation costs outweigh the costs of less living space and, most likely, higher crime.
There's nothing wrong with that, but others would assess the same factors and reach different conclusions. There continue to be large numbers of very well-read, intelligent parents in their 30s who work in DC, like all the "right" things (art, museums, zoos, injera), and end up moving to the suburbs. They don't really have the time to make sure some innovative charter school gets off the ground, or want to play the DC "school lottery game," so they'll move to places with solid track records. Moreover, a lot of people in this age cohort are used to instant gratification and, if their educational wishes aren't quickly granted, they'll take their marbles and leave.
It all strikes me as quite incremental, and something less than a fundamental change in the "American Dream." Moreover, insofar as it entails the implicit displacement of some current residents who end up priced out, it is perhaps a version that one might want to celebrate with a bit less hubris (and instead treat as simply reflecting the dynamic nature of cities).
Well I dont speak for everyone but there a tons of people that work in the area that aren't Lawyers or Lobbyists and the night life seems to be fine for them. Granted places don't stay open till 5am doesn't mean people don't know how to have a good time down here. Well at least for the more "ethnically inclined" members of this area.
As for the children being in school in DC, I think I'm going to make a poll to see who has kids in DC and where they send them and their age.
I sense a fair amount of projection of your own aspirations onto the larger population, as if you could post "Let's all move to DC and raise our upper-middle class kids in the city" on Twitter and wake up with 1000 new neighbors with toddlers and ZipCar memberships tomorrow.
Maybe it will happen; maybe not. If someone's job isn't in downtown DC, but instead out near the Dulles Toll Road or off Route 270, they won't have the same motivation as you to move or stay in the city. Most likely, you'd just get some transfer of the lawyer/lobbyist class from Arlington, McLean, Bethesda and Chevy Chase to NW, and a handful of additional charter schools. These folks would be making a rational choice that, for them, the benefits of shorter commutes and lower transportation costs outweigh the costs of less living space and, most likely, higher crime.
There's nothing wrong with that, but others would assess the same factors and reach different conclusions. There continue to be large numbers of very well-read, intelligent parents in their 30s who work in DC, like all the "right" things (art, museums, zoos, injera), and end up moving to the suburbs. They don't really have the time to make sure some innovative charter school gets off the ground, or want to play the DC "school lottery game," so they'll move to places with solid track records. Moreover, a lot of people in this age cohort are used to instant gratification and, if their educational wishes aren't quickly granted, they'll take their marbles and leave.
It all strikes me as quite incremental, and something less than a fundamental change in the "American Dream." Moreover, insofar as it entails the implicit displacement of some current residents who end up priced out, it is perhaps a version that one might want to celebrate with a bit less hubris (and instead treat as simply reflecting the dynamic nature of cities).
There has been an undeniable shift toward cities / walkability that's demographically proveable and sustaining beyond the wild 20s years. It's not projection. As said before, it's not absolute either, as you can always find counter-examples, but it's noticeable in where market investments are happening and these people aren't going to go out to Loudon County once they turn 35.
There has been an undeniable shift toward cities / walkability that's demographically proveable and sustaining beyond the wild 20s years. It's not projection. As said before, it's not absolute either, as you can always find counter-examples, but it's noticeable in where market investments are happening and these people aren't going to go out to Loudon County once they turn 35.
You can use terms like "undeniable shift," but I don't think you really know one way or the other how many people who currently live in DC or its close-in suburbs may later end up moving to Loudoun (not Loudon) or other places further out. In terms of "market investments," the whole region has been growing with the expansion of Government-related jobs. You'll find plenty of developments in Loudoun, such as Brambleton, that continue to expand rapidly, even if new condos also are being built downtown.
You can build a bunch of condos or renovate a bunch of rowhouses in DC, and if folks in their 30s decide to move out because the schools haven't made the progress they hoped for, or crime levels increase, or mass transit options improve, you'll just end up with less expensive housing in the city for people in other age brackets who don't care about these things as much.
Again, if you have lots of data to back up your assertion that there's a rapidly expanding cohort of affluent folks in their mid-30s staying in DC, why not share it? Obviously, some of the discussion on this thread centers around the recent Census data indicating that the number of school-age children in DC actually declined over the past decade. I'd be very interested in that data. Right now, it just feels like a lot of assertions are being made by folks who personally like urban living, would be happy if others followed their example, and don't necessarily always take the time to distinguish between facts and speculation.
The reurbanization of America isn't a myth--it's a trend that's been going on for the better part of 15 years now. It's no mere coincidence that numerous neighborhoods across DC have gentrified and investment in the city has skyrocketed at the same time the Distrci reversed a six decades-long population loss. I think it's more than mere hopeful thinking or wild speculation to assume that at least a portion of the recent arrivals into the city will remain planted here.
The reurbanization of America isn't a myth--it's a trend that's been going on for the better part of 15 years now. It's no mere coincidence that numerous neighborhoods across DC have gentrified and investment in the city has skyrocketed at the same time the Distrci reversed a six decades-long population loss. I think it's more than mere hopeful thinking or wild speculation to assume that at least a portion of the recent arrivals into the city will remain planted here.
What's the support for asserting that "reurbanization" has been going on for the better part of "15 years"? There have been large-scale urban redevelopment projects that date back much longer than 15 years, and cities that have lost population over the past 5-10 years. In some places, both things happen at the same time - a downtown area gets redeveloped and the population in the immediate area increases, but is then more than offset by continued population loss in other city neighborhoods.
I agree that a portion of recent arrivals into the city will remain planted here, but it's equally certain that a portion will leave for other areas and the DC suburbs. There may well be a continued gain in the number of residents, but no one has shown that this will translate into more families staying in DC and ultimately doing all the heavy lifting that would be required to seriously improve the performance of DCPS. If the demographics of the city do continue to skew towards those in their 20s to early 30s, and the elderly, perhaps DC will become ever more "hip," but that will simply mean youth-oriented (with, perhaps, good health care options for the empty-nesters).
You can use terms like "undeniable shift," but I don't think you really know one way or the other how many people who currently live in DC or its close-in suburbs may later end up moving to Loudoun (not Loudon) or other places further out. In terms of "market investments," the whole region has been growing with the expansion of Government-related jobs. You'll find plenty of developments in Loudoun, such as Brambleton, that continue to expand rapidly, even if new condos also are being built downtown.
You can build a bunch of condos or renovate a bunch of rowhouses in DC, and if folks in their 30s decide to move out because the schools haven't made the progress they hoped for, or crime levels increase, or mass transit options improve, you'll just end up with less expensive housing in the city for people in other age brackets who don't care about these things as much.
Again, if you have lots of data to back up your assertion that there's a rapidly expanding cohort of affluent folks in their mid-30s staying in DC, why not share it? Obviously, some of the discussion on this thread centers around the recent Census data indicating that the number of school-age children in DC actually declined over the past decade. I'd be very interested in that data. Right now, it just feels like a lot of assertions are being made by folks who personally like urban living, would be happy if others followed their example, and don't necessarily always take the time to distinguish between facts and speculation.
You're confusing two topics: the fact that some people are forced out of the city for better schooling is not the same as those who eagerly move out to the outer suburbs.
You're also ignoring the fact that "market investments" have long existed in the outer suburbs but have shifted to include the urban core. There are ample articles and data showing outer suburbs are struggling the hardest to sell homes now, while inner-ring and urban core neighborhoods boom. There has been a shift.
I already posted demographics for Loudon County proving it is not attracting the young adults and,, as 14thandYou pointed out, this is part of a much larger trend that does not include a vision of someday ending up on the fringe.
Displacement is also a normal and predictable result when wealthier people choose to move anywhere. It's not intrinsically bad or good.
I'm struggling to understand why you're so adamant about this issue. We all acknowledge that some people with high education still move way out, but it's nothing like it used to be in terms of a universal default.
In some places, both things happen at the same time - a downtown area gets redeveloped and the population in the immediate area increases, but is then more than offset by continued population loss in other city neighborhoods.
E.g., Philadelphia 1992-2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by 14thandYou
The reurbanization of America isn't a myth--it's a trend that's been going on for the better part of 15 years now. It's no mere coincidence that numerous neighborhoods across DC have gentrified and investment in the city has skyrocketed at the same time the Distrci reversed a six decades-long population loss. I think it's more than mere hopeful thinking or wild speculation to assume that at least a portion of the recent arrivals into the city will remain planted here.
It's basically young, single people that are moving to cities. As Jeb said, many of these people will move to the suburbs once they get married and become more sedentary.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluefly
There has been an undeniable shift toward cities / walkability that's demographically proveable and sustaining beyond the wild 20s years. It's not projection. As said before, it's not absolute either, as you can always find counter-examples, but it's noticeable in where market investments are happening and these people aren't going to go out to Loudon County once they turn 35.
I don't know if there's been an "undeniable shift" either. For the most part, young people have always preferred city living over suburban living. The only thing that seems abundant now that you didn't have 20 or 30 years ago is a bunch of retiring Boomers with cash to blow on brownstone renovations and theater tickets.
Last edited by BajanYankee; 05-10-2011 at 09:13 AM..
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