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Old 06-29-2011, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Portland, OR
8,803 posts, read 7,299,450 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14thandYou View Post
Yep. The point of the "if it weren't for the federal government, DC's economy would suck"-type of comments is lost on me. If it weren't for the federal government, there wouldn't be a DC.
At the same time, since the markets will force the Federal Government to balance the budget since borrowing costs will skyrocket within this decade, it's worth asking what will happen to the locality when we're forced to cut 40% of the Federal Budget to balance it.
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Old 06-29-2011, 09:21 AM
 
1,783 posts, read 3,258,757 times
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The budget can be balanced without cutting 40% of the federal government. That would be a disaster for the entire country and not just DC.
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Old 06-29-2011, 09:58 AM
 
Location: Rockville, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
it's worth asking what will happen to the locality when we're forced to cut 40% of the Federal Budget to balance it.
A 40% slashing of the federal budget would be economically devastating for the entire country--it would affect far more than DC. That amount of cutting won't happen. Undoubtedly, there will be a paring down of federal spending over the coming years--just not nearly to that level.
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Old 06-29-2011, 10:04 AM
 
Location: Portland, OR
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14thandYou View Post
A 40% slashing of the federal budget would be economically devastating for the entire country--it would affect far more than DC. That amount of cutting won't happen. Undoubtedly, there will be a paring down of federal spending over the coming years--just not nearly to that level.
OK, we're going to disagree. I tend to be overly pessimistic and the majority in this area seem to be overly optimistic.

Let's cut it down to this. A simple 10% cut in total federal spending, which we will agree would not be out of the realm of possibility, would have a substantial and negative impact on this area.
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Old 06-29-2011, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
2,010 posts, read 2,935,929 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goblue123 View Post
I read all the time that D.C. has all these jobs available, educated.... and yet it seems like you need to be a director of something to even see an ad that you can apply for.

Is this the dirty little secret here in 2011?
It's true you need to put in more work than cruising monster.com, craigslist and theladders to find a good job in DC.

The reality is that, if you post a good job publicly, you just get a deluge of absurd applicants, a hundred carbon-copy qualified applicants, and a handful of outstanding applicants that you probably had already heard of or worked with already.

I know maybe 1 or 2 people who got their great job in DC because of who their mommy and daddy are. I know hundreds who did very well in their education, have paid their dues doing grunt work for crap pay for years, networked and subsequently grinded their way up.

If you are already paid your dues elsewhere, and want to parlay that into a lateral move to DC, then you have to work your network. If you aren't doing that, you'll just lose out to someone who is.

I don't think that any of this is a 'dirty little secret' and I don't think any of it is new to 2011.
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Old 06-29-2011, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Rockville, MD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
OK, we're going to disagree. I tend to be overly pessimistic and the majority in this area seem to be overly optimistic.

Let's cut it down to this. A simple 10% cut in total federal spending, which we will agree would not be out of the realm of possibility, would have a substantial and negative impact on this area.
Unquestionably it would. I don't think there's any question that you're goign to see a slowdown in the growth of areas like federal contracting and federal office construction/leasing in and around DC. Lobbying probably won't be substantially affected, but that isn't nearly as critical to the region's economy as federal contracting--particularly in defense.

The reason why I don't see a 40% budget slashing as anything but a remote possibility is because, at the end of the day, every politician answers to his or her constituents at home, and cuts of that magnitude will have a demonstrably negative affect pretty much across the entire country. Politicians like to talk about fiscal austerity and responsibility, but ultimately what they're really talking about is cuts to programs and agencies that won't have a directly negative impact on their constituents. And it would be really difficult to do that with a drastic 40% cut in federal spending.
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Old 06-29-2011, 11:33 AM
 
5,059 posts, read 8,366,060 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14thandYou View Post
And if the financial industry decided to pack up and relocate to Omaha, Manhattan would be devastated. But neither situation is remotely plausible, so what's the point?
Well, Warren Buffett's in Omaha; the hedge funds are in Connecticut; the back-office operations for Wall Street are increasingly in New Jersey and Long Island City; and key parts of the financial services industry that used to be based in Manhattan have moved to London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.

If that can happen, I suppose that federal Government jobs in the DC region could be redistributed to lower-cost areas of the U.S. as well some day. Would it really hamper the effectiveness of the Federal Government if Congress decided that the Department of Agriculture should be based in Des Moines, the FDA should be relocated to Massachusetts, and the Department of the Interior should be in Colorado?

Not predicting this will happen, but who knows. I think sometimes those of us who are inside the "DC bubble" don't appreciate the depth of resentment that exists elsewhere in the country about the relative wealth of this region.
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Old 06-29-2011, 01:42 PM
 
Location: Rockville, MD
3,548 posts, read 7,391,754 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
Not predicting this will happen, but who knows. I think sometimes those of us who are inside the "DC bubble" don't appreciate the depth of resentment that exists elsewhere in the country about the relative wealth of this region.
As someone with relatives scattered across the midwest, believe me--I understand the depth of resentment...

The federal government already operates offices and buildings for various agencies across the country, so it's not unheard of. I just don't see the day in my lifetime where agencies like Defense, Treasury, Commerce and so on see their headquarters moved to Peoria or some such place. Could it happen at some indeterminate point in the future? Sure; anything's possible. But in terms of likely scenarios that will impact many of the residents in and around DC today, I just don't see it. And so long as Congress and the agencies that make the decisions and control the purse strings are HQ'd in DC, all of the ancillary businesses that work with those institutions will remain here as well. It may not make my aunt and uncle in Independence, Kansas particularly happy, but it is what it is.
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Old 06-29-2011, 03:47 PM
 
11,145 posts, read 13,539,550 times
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The flaw in the argument that moving large parts of the government elsewhere and its impact on employment is that most of those people wouldn't stay. It's not like you'll suddenly have millions of people desperate for work and trying to scrape by here. They'll go where the jobs are just as they came here for the same reason. The service industry jobs that tend to go to lower income locals would take a big hit. The population of the area would decline and the disturbing level of regional affluence would, but the overall unemployment rate would probably level off fairly quickly.
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Old 06-29-2011, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
27,623 posts, read 24,826,243 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 14thandYou View Post
Yep. The point of the "if it weren't for the federal government, DC's economy would suck"-type of comments is lost on me. If it weren't for the federal government, there wouldn't be a DC.
If it weren't for the federal government, we probably would not have made it past the original 13 colonies.
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