Where do you see DC in 20 years? (Washington: insurance, mortgage)
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Lots of six-figured salary jobs disappear into the abyss and that would have a devastating avalanche effect on retail, housing and construction. I agree with Frostopsy: it's only a matter of time before this happens.
LOL. Care to put money down on that prediction? I doubt you would. You are looking at the world as you want it to be rather than as it really is. I would definitely put money down that 20 years from now DC will have just as many lobbyists and special interest groups as it does now. Am I happy about that? Not really. But it's definitely the most likely scenario. Government tends to expand, not contract. That means more opportunities for lobbying. You could enact all the campaign finance reform you want-- that will only shift where the lobbyists get their money from, not eliminate it. These huge apparatuses have been set up and they are not going away. And that's even after the fact that they've been trying to do campaign finance reform for decades and there haven't been really any major reforms. Wishful thinking to believe that in 20 years it will suddenly change.
Great post. The economy here really depends on federal government spending. Yes, the area has witnessed explosive growth of private-sector tech companies and other businesses catering to the consumer market. But it is all about the dollars spent by Uncle Sam on workers, contracts, buildings and general services.
Think about it. What if there was never a 9/11 terrorist attack? What if the US never sent its military forces to attack Afghanistan or Iraq during the 2000s? I guarantee that the DC region would have easily less 50,000 or 100,000 full-time salaried positions and far fewer IT startups catering to federal government contracts. We would not see the hyper-gentrification stretching from Logan Circle to Petworth.
Now if we had a Congress and a POTUS serious about major campaign finance reform then many lobbyists, lawyers, public relations staff and trade association workers would face a precarious future with full-time employment here. Lots of six-figured salary jobs disappear into the abyss and that would have a devastating avalanche effect on retail, housing and construction. I agree with Frostopsy: it's only a matter of time before this happens.
Right now...the DC economy is almost reminding me of the early 1990s when everything was stagnant--the pace of hiring, salary raises, new business startups, retail sales. A stalled economy. I remember the DC job market during the 1990-1994 period and it was brutal for 20-something job seekers with college degrees.
Anyway, the real estate market here is way hyper-inflated with values. Big banks, hedge funds and smaller entrepreneurial investors are buying up properties all over the place. It's all about the rent-seeking income and that's THE ONLY THING that's keeping the economy here afloat. At least the banks and landlords are doing super in 2016.
Meh..
I disagree. The Capital of the most powerful country in the world will always be a place people want to spend money and make money. The private sector in DC is growing fast as business owners/leaders see DC as a "safe" place that is relatively recession proof. Many companies have expanded to this area and opened new offices.
DC is also an international city and always will be. This brings foreign business where cities like Philly and Boston would miss out. DC has stepped up its game so dramatically in the last decade that there is no going back. DC is increasingly stealing Chicago's thunder as America's "second city". Being in a much better location and relatively close to NYC (America's first city).
The main problem holding DC back in the past was the "suburban sprawl" trend the baby boomers created that lead to the decay of inner cities. No city can really "boom" when 70% of the people living there are poor and/or criminals. That bad element repels middle and upper class people and keeps them away. Gentrification has changed that and I don't see the middle and upper class giving up their cities ever again.
DC will not be a "Government town" in 20 years. It will be a city where the Government happens to be. Whether you think its a good thing or not.. I predict that cities will push the poor out permanently. The poor being a large demographic in cities will probably never happen again.
Here are the facts, right now, DC MD and VA are literally at 0% growth. The amount of newcomers to the area has been dropping, and most of the building and business coming around is because of the cannibalization of the suburbs. Wages in the area are declining after rising significantly in the past decade. In addition to that, young families are getting effectively stuck in starter homes or forced to move to far flung suburbs because they are effectively priced out of the area. Parts of NOVA are facing very high office vacancy rates, and they keep building more for some reason. And traffic is still the 2nd worst in the country, right behind LA.
So is this what you feel or is this a fact? Because what is fact seems to be at odds with what you wrote. And these articles were found dated the same week you made your post.
I disagree. The Capital of the most powerful country in the world will always be a place people want to spend money and make money. The private sector in DC is growing fast as business owners/leaders see DC as a "safe" place that is relatively recession proof. Many companies have expanded to this area and opened new offices.
DC is also an international city and always will be. This brings foreign business where cities like Philly and Boston would miss out. DC has stepped up its game so dramatically in the last decade that there is no going back. DC is increasingly stealing Chicago's thunder as America's "second city". Being in a much better location and relatively close to NYC (America's first city).
The main problem holding DC back in the past was the "suburban sprawl" trend the baby boomers created that lead to the decay of inner cities. No city can really "boom" when 70% of the people living there are poor and/or criminals.
I'm confused are you saying that 70% of the people in DC were at some point poor or criminals?
That bad element repels middle and upper class people and keeps them away. Gentrification has changed that and I don't see the middle and upper class giving up their cities ever again.
You're so hilarious with these declarative statements. You and Marty McFly are probably the only ones that can see the future.
DC will not be a "Government town" in 20 years. It will be a city where the Government happens to be.
You do realize that almost all of the new development in this city is due to the increase in Federal spending right? If DC wasn't the Capital City of the United States. It would just be another city in MD, have you seen BMORE lately? Let's face it without the Federal presence DC would be a dramatically different city.
Whether you think its a good thing or not.. I predict that cities will push the poor out permanently.
What's this prediction based on? If anything the number of poor people in DC and in several other cities has been increasing for several years now.
The two articles you cited regarding DC's poverty rate increasing is two years old in terms of their source data. It recently went down to 17.7% from the 18.9% mentioned in the two articles. This is from the most recent census data, which by the way, they update every year. Just to note, this will likely continue to drop as waves LIHTC buildings contracts expire and they convert to market rate in many case. None of which are covered by rent control since they were built after 1975.
Things are indeed changing in exactly the direction described. DC is becoming more affluent, and the tidal wave making it more so is set to hit within the next five years.
Likewise any data from 2010 is very out of date, that is how quickly things are changing.
My advice, do your research better and dig deeper with source data rather than quoting articles from two years ago.
With regards to history, cities follow a specific pattern globally. Which is affluence in the core, and more poverty and you move out. But the pattern at first is the more poverty in the core, then affluence in the suburbs. Eventually, this flips though. This patterns is in much older cities than DC, American cities in many ways have trailed this trend, but it may be because the cities are younger, but now it is looking like it is following it exactly in the more elite cities which DC is one.
I think one of the sure bets in DC is the poverty rate likely dropping to below 10%. When one combines the fact public housing is basically being starved out of existence, and the LIHTC expiring, it is obvious why. While there is $100 million a year to preserve and create, that is barely a drop in the bucket in terms of it's impact on demographics, when billions are spent on market rate projects.
I can go into another graph by the way that shows an absolute decline in single mothers (the group most likely to be in poverty) in the city, from 36% of the cities households, to 11% in a ten year time frame. District measured covered that. The group that increased, childless homes of both single and married people. Also almost every higher income bracket grew though. Even the poverty rate itself may be obfuscating the nature of the changes.
So please some of us are a bit more informed by the totality of the data. We see where DC is going in the long term. But it should be obvious from the outset. The poverty is likely to continue to decline, largely because the impoverished are dispersed out of the city.
The city is changing more than it is staying the same. The problem is the data itself requires parsing to understand the nature of these changes. We are seeing a big spike in childless single income households. We are seeing a big decline in singles with dependents (children). We are seeing an increase in the median income, an increase in educational attainment, and an increase in the % working in professional and managerial jobs. Not just small increases either, but dramatic ones.
This is not the same city, and the direction is pointing towards more affluence, not less, and yes, a decrease in poverty, though it may be gradual. The cost of living and decline in LIHTC apartments will both play a part in that. The city will change in the future, but that future looks more like 14th St nw, than EOTR right now.
DC in time will become more affluent and less poor. With that said, I am waiting for the "you can say that about every other city" slick ricks and or rachels.
What does it mean when an area, which is the size and population of DC, becomes more affluent, MONOCULTURALISM occurs. So in the case of DC, it will be working class monoculturalism. People within the same community that share a common working/economic class culture all think and socialize similarly.
DC, VA, and MD, aka the federal territory of DC, may not be a government town in years to come (highly doubt it won't) but it certainly won't be a place where everyone wants to be. That is for sure and will be even more so 10-15 years down the line. The exception lies within the default crowd and those attracted to this place that are marketable due to applied skills, experiences, and clearance credentials. Other than that, DC will extend its offerings to a local monoculture. Nobody is going to deliberately leave any other diverse city and shack with roommates and get rid of their cars.
If you do a drive around DC during mid-day of a work week, it will not be hard to capture the air of sameness- especially now that the weather is better. Sure, it may be diverse ethnically but culturally, it’s the same. They all look like intellectuals, which is a good thing mind you but it’s still the same. My father told me he went to look at investment property in Charlotte N.C and said the same thing about there being very preppy upper class folk through and through.
Many people will argue because of their social blindness, which is why you often hear "you can say that about every other..." They are simply unable to identify differences and this is identified as social agnosia. Different to emotional agnosia where people are blind to facial expressions and voice intonation, social agnosia is where people apply the social aspects to their every encounter- no matter where they are, things are perceived the same.
So, as DC becomes more monocultural, less and less people that are not part of this monoculturalism will leave. But personally, I think it's a good thing. I am all about setting rules, boundaries, and defined parameters- unlike how America is going with all this multiculturalism and integration that is killing its culture. Put same with same and there will be less bias, offensive but hurt feelings, and slander.
[quote=DistrictSonic;43707030]The two articles you cited regarding DC's poverty rate increasing is two years old in terms of their source data. It recently went down to 17.7% from the 18.9% mentioned in the two articles. This is from the most recent census data, which by the way, they update every year.
You do realize 17.7% is a staggering number considering the amount of wealth that supposedly exist in this city. BTW this was the first drop of the poverty rate in years and DC has been in this Gentrification mode for almost 2 decades. You also know as well as I do that the census data is only an estimate. We won't know what the real poverty rate is until 2020. I'll bet it won't be 10% though...
Likewise any data from 2010 is very out of date, that is how quickly things are changing.
My advice, do your research better and dig deeper with source data rather than quoting articles from two years ago.
I find this particularly funny given the fact that your article is using data from 2013. One of my articles uses a couple of graphs with 2010 data. But they were written in 2015 and much of the other data is from 2009-2013. Things are changing fast but not that fast. More importantly, the articles that you are using make no reference to the relationship of households led by single mothers and poverty. I'm not saying that there is no correlation at all between the two. But these two articles certainly don't show it. I would advise you to use your own advice.
With regards to history, cities follow a specific pattern globally. Which is affluence in the core, and more poverty and you move out.
But the pattern at first is the more poverty in the core, then affluence in the suburbs. Eventually, this flips though. This patterns is in much older cities than DC, American cities in many ways have trailed this trend, but it may be because the cities are younger, but now it is looking like it is following it exactly
Trends have a beginning and an ending, is that not correct? History will show whether or not this economic expansion was lightening in a bottle or something long lasting. The truth is nobody truly knows and it would be nice if people like yourself would stop trying to act as though you're some sort of prophets when it comes to the DC economy. I've lived in this city my entire life and one thing I do know is that things change constantly. Sometimes it's good and sometimes it's bad. BTW can you name one DC Suburb that is becoming less affluent?
Listen, I'll definitely agree that DC is much improved. But we are certainly not elite yet, we have several major issues that need to be dealt with before we can be considered elite. We have a lot of work to do whether you want to admit it or not.
I think one of the sure bets in DC is the poverty rate likely dropping to below 10%.
And when will this happen exactly???
So please some of us are a bit more informed by the totality of the data.
Lol... And just who are these more informed people? You??? Please lady you're a joke. Your data doesn't prove anything as far as I'm concerned. As a matter of fact it really isn't related to the topic at all. Just goes to show that there are definitely two DCs. The real one and the fantasy land that people like yourself have created in your mind
We see where DC is going in the long term. But it should be obvious from the outset. The poverty is likely to continue to decline, largely because the impoverished are dispersed out of the city.
Have you been to many parts of SE and far NE? I think you should step out of your uptown bubble and take a trip there before making such a definitive statement.
This is not the same city, and the direction is pointing towards more affluence, not less, and yes, a decrease in poverty, though it may be gradual. The cost of living and decline in LIHTC apartments will both play a part in that. The city will change in the future, but that future looks more like 14th St nw, than EOTR right now.
From your mouth to God's ears. For many people it is the same city and it's time that you start to recognize that. The fact that you keep repeating it makes me wonder if you actually believe the S*&T that you're shoveling.
LOL now that was a good one. Listen son.... HISTORY ALWAYS REPEATS ITSELF!!!
False.
History SOMETIMES repeats itself and sometimes not. Do you really expect to see Dinosaurs walking the earth again? Or the Industrial Revolution happening again? I didn't think so. But nice try.
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