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I created a projection of population densities in the Navy Yard neighborhood for the year 2030. This is based on already built, under construction, and estimated residential unit deliveries. Census Tract 72 covers Navy Yard, but I project that it would be split in three separate census tracts by the 2030 census.
The 2014-2010 ACS 5-year estimate for Census Tract 72:
Population - 4,247
Land area - 0.53 square miles
Population density - 8,085.6 people per square mile
If Census Tract 72 were to not be split (it likely will be split), this is what my projection is for 2020 (there's some downside to this based on delivery dates too close to the next census count:
Population - 13,950
Land area - 0.53 square miles
Population density - 26,320 people per square mile
The US Census Bureau states that census tracts contain populations between 1,200 and 8,000 residents (optimum is 4,000 residents per census tract)
Here's my projection for what 2030 will look like in Navy Yard (based on a 95% occupancy rate and 1.7 people per household) and split into 3 separate census tracts:
Census Tract 72.01
4,667 residential units
0.07280 square miles of land area
7,537 residents 103,530 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.02
3,545 residential units
0.15264 square miles of land area
5,725 residents
37,506 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.03
5,470 residential units
0.30070 square miles of land area
8,834 residents
29,378 people per square mile
I created a projection of population densities in the Navy Yard neighborhood for the year 2030. This is based on already built, under construction, and estimated residential unit deliveries. Census Tract 72 covers Navy Yard, but I project that it would be split in three separate census tracts by the 2030 census.
The 2014-2010 ACS 5-year estimate for Census Tract 72:
Population - 4,247
Land area - 0.53 square miles
Population density - 8,085.6 people per square mile
If Census Tract 72 were to not be split (it likely will be split), this is what my projection is for 2020 (there's some downside to this based on delivery dates too close to the next census count:
Population - 13,950
Land area - 0.53 square miles
Population density - 26,320 people per square mile
The US Census Bureau states that census tracts contain populations between 1,200 and 8,000 residents (optimum is 4,000 residents per census tract)
Here's my projection for what 2030 will look like in Navy Yard (based on a 95% occupancy rate and 1.7 people per household) and split into 3 separate census tracts:
Census Tract 72.01
4,667 residential units
0.07280 square miles of land area
7,537 residents 103,530 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.02
3,545 residential units
0.15264 square miles of land area
5,725 residents
37,506 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.03
5,470 residential units
0.30070 square miles of land area
8,834 residents
29,378 people per square mile
The above population density numbers are conservative and are likely to go up if more residential projects are built than are already announced.
I used NearMap to measure land area in each of my proposed census tracts.
I plan to do population density projections for what I think will be the most likely census tract splits for NoMa and Mount Vernon Triangle.
I think we're at about 15,000 announced units already. Also, many buildings have 2-3 bedroom units with roommates so the numbers are much higher than your prediction. Probably closer to 25,000-30,000 people.
There will be a lot of development on the other side of South Capitol St. and Buzzard Point too which will change all the census tract boundaries. Good job though.
I think it's safe to say that there is no way the Capital Riverfront is going to build 4,774,000 sq. feet of office space. At most, half of this will be built as office and the rest will be residential buildings. DC is not going to be building many office buildings moving forward. We don't need them. Many existing Class B and C buildings will be converted to residential, however, most will be torn down in the core and rebuilt as Class A as tenants take less and less space which is already happening.
We can basically make a very logical guess that 2,500,000 sq. feet of the office space will end as residential and it seems every few months we hear about former office space plots being switched to residential in this submarket. That will add around 3,000-4,000 units to the total which will bring the residential unit count to around 17,611-18,611 units total. With some 2-3 bedroom units in most buildings and 3-4 bedroom townhouses also, I'm estimating the population of the total BID to be 35,000-37,000 people.
Buzzard Point can really build up to 12,000 units with current zoning, however, the office of planning wants it to stay at around 6,000 units at total buildout. That will play a big role too. I do think when the dust settles, the total BID area will have way over 20,000 units and closer to 25,000 units based on where DC is headed.
Last edited by MDAllstar; 08-31-2016 at 06:10 AM..
I think we're at about 15,000 announced units already. Also, many buildings have 2-3 bedroom units with roommates so the numbers are much higher than your prediction. Probably closer to 25,000-30,000 people.
There will be a lot of development on the other side of South Capitol St. and Buzzard Point too which will change all the census tract boundaries. Good job though.
The 2020 census will give us a real-life basis for household size since thousands of multi-family units will be lived in by then in the neighborhood.
My estimate of the three proposed census tracts at 2030 is conservative, which means there is plenty of upside potential re: household size and number of residential units.
Last edited by revitalizer; 08-31-2016 at 06:18 AM..
I think it's safe to say that there is no way the Capital Riverfront is going to build 4,774,000 sq. feet of office space. At most, half of this will be built as office and the rest will be residential buildings. DC is not going to be building many office buildings moving forward. We don't need them. Many existing Class B and C buildings will be converted to residential, however, most will be torn down in the core and rebuilt as Class A as tenants take less and less space which is already happening.
We can basically make a very logical guess that 2,500,000 sq. feet of the office space will end as residential and it seems every few months we hear about former office space plots being switched to residential in this submarket. That will add around 3,000-4,000 units to the total which will bring the residential unit count to around 17,611-18,611 units total. With some 2-3 bedroom units in most buildings and 3-4 bedroom townhouses also, I'm estimating the population of the total BID to be 35,000-37,000 people.
Buzzard Point can really build up to 12,000 units with current zoning, however, the office of planning wants it to stay at around 6,000 units at total buildout. That will play a big role too. I do think when the dust settles, the total BID area will have way over 20,000 units and closer to 25,000 units based on where DC is headed. I just we will see.
Just for the hell of it, I'll do a projection of the likely future split for Census Tract 72 only (using your 17,611 unit number and I'll change household size to 2.2 and with a 95% occupancy rate). Just be mindful that this census tract (or its future split) will not extend west of South Capitol St and into the rest of the BID boundary (i.e. Buzzard Point). I may do an exercise for the census tracts involving Buzzard Point separately (at some point). Stand by.
Just for the hell of it, I'll do a projection of the likely future split for Census Tract 72 only (using your 17,611 unit number and I'll change household size to 2.2 and with a 95% occupancy rate). Just be mindful that this census tract (or its future split) will not extend west of South Capitol St and into the rest of the BID boundary (i.e. Buzzard Point). I may do an exercise for the census tracts involving Buzzard Point separately (at some point). Stand by.
Ok, I don't know how the BID is doing their unit counts to be honest. I don't know where they're getting their Buzzard Point numbers if that is supposed to be apart of the BID. Everything is probably off to be honest. That's coming from a developers eye looking at the land in the neighborhood though. I'm sure they're using some type of formula but I think they're low balling pretty bad to be honest. As land prices go up, every developer will build as many units as they can.
Using MDAllstar's 17,611 residential units as the full build-out and my assumption of 95% occupancy and a household size of 2.2, here is a rough projection for the three census tracts I proposed in my earlier post:
Census Tract 72.01
5,867 residential units
0.07280 square miles of land area
12,262 residents 168,434 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.02
6,045 residential units
0.15264 square miles of land area
12,634 residents
82,770 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.03
5,699 residential units
0.30070 square miles of land area
11,911 residents
39,611 people per square mile
I maintain that the area bounded by South Capitol St on the west, M St on the south, New Jersey Ave on the east, and 695 on the north will be the population density standout for the Navy Yard neighborhood.
The numbers above are for the split of Census Tract 72 only.
Using MDAllstar's 17,611 residential units as the full build-out and my assumption of 95% occupancy and a household size of 2.2, here is a rough projection for the three census tracts I proposed in my earlier post:
Census Tract 72.01
5,867 residential units
0.07280 square miles of land area
12,262 residents 168,434 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.02
6,045 residential units
0.15264 square miles of land area
12,634 residents
82,770 people per square mile
Census Tract 72.03
5,699 residential units
0.30070 square miles of land area
11,911 residents
39,611 people per square mile
I maintain that the area bounded by South Capitol St on the west, M St on the south, New Jersey Ave on the east, and 695 on the north will be the population density standout for the Navy Yard neighborhood.
The numbers above are for the split of Census Tract 72 only.
Thanks for all your hard work. It will be very interesting to see what actually happens. Buzzard Point is an interesting neighborhood and I still think the Office of Planning is crazy to think much office space will be built there. Current zoning will allow 16 million sq. feet. They think that would only yield 8,000 units. They have planned for it to only be 11 million sq. feet of development with only 6,000 units. I don't know why they think that much office space is going to be built in the future. It's just not going to happen honestly. I think we will see somewhere between 10,000-12,000 units in Buzzard Point when the dust settles.
Thanks for all your hard work. It will be very interesting to see what actually happens. Buzzard Point is an interesting neighborhood and I still think the Office of Planning is crazy to think much office space will be built there. Current zoning will allow 16 million sq. feet. They think that would only yield 8,000 units. They have planned for it to only be 11 million sq. feet of development with only 6,000 units. I don't know why they think that much office space is going to be built in the future. It's just not going to happen honestly. I think we will see somewhere between 10,000-12,000 units in Buzzard Point when the dust settles.
You are welcome. The result that stands out to me the most from my analysis is that, in just 14 or less years time, I believe DC will have at least 2 census tracts (at least one in Navy Yard, at least one in NoMa) that are 100,000+ people per square mile.
At that point, it will be undeniable to doubters that DC, a city with height limits, can reach really high population densities even with 14-story residential buildings. People in the US need to really understand that height does not equal density in all cases. FAR (floor area ratio) is what is most important to density.
Re: Buzzard Point and the Office of Planning...... I agree with you.
Last edited by revitalizer; 08-31-2016 at 12:48 PM..
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