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I would imagine things will stay down for the next 6 months. The earliest I have heard for vaccine manufacturing is October, limited availability in Nov/Dec, and widely available Jan/Feb. That's also assuming all the clinical trials go well. After Jan/Feb I would expect things to get back to normal pretty quickly. I imagine the virus will be all but forgotten by May if the vaccine is actually widely available in January.
Hang in there...
Here we are now...about 3 weeks prior to this fun election season...and not much has changed. My guess is sometime early to mid spring things may open up and somewhat get back to 'normal'. I may be wrong, but who knows at this point?
Here we are now...about 3 weeks prior to this fun election season...and not much has changed. My guess is sometime early to mid spring things may open up and somewhat get back to 'normal'. I may be wrong, but who knows at this point?
Well, I still stand by my rough prediction on timing.
Huh, I went to the Wharf this weekend and it was busy as ever. Navy Yard was bustling the weekend before that all along the water.
IMO, it comes down to who the audiences are. Parts of town whose customers were more local have fared better.
In Georgetown, a lot of key customer demographics have yet to return: international tourists, domestic tourists, business/diplomatic travelers, students, office workers, and even wealthy locals who decamped to their summer homes.
IMO, it comes down to who the audiences are. Parts of town whose customers were more local have fared better.
In Georgetown, a lot of key customer demographics have yet to return: international tourists, domestic tourists, business/diplomatic travelers, students, office workers, and even wealthy locals who decamped to their summer homes.
I was in Navy Yard last week and it was definitely busy. Georgetown caters more towards the locals and tourists who aren't aware of the other great neighborhoods in DC. Navy Yard also caters to tourists but less so from an international base I would say. Its not as well known as Georgetown and caters more towards people who live in the surrounding DMV area I would say. It also caters to locals but I wouldn't say as much as Georgetown does. Also, I think college kids from Gtown and GW visit this area more than Navy Yard. I never see many college kids (if any)in Navy Yard.
I was in Navy Yard last week and it was definitely busy. Georgetown caters more towards the locals and tourists who aren't aware of the other great neighborhoods in DC. Navy Yard also caters to tourists but less so from an international base I would say. Its not as well known as Georgetown and caters more towards people who live in the surrounding DMV area I would say. It also caters to locals but I wouldn't say as much as Georgetown does. Also, I think college kids from Gtown and GW visit this area more than Navy Yard. I never see many college kids (if any)in Navy Yard.
Navy Yard benefits from simply having a massive amount of residential density. All those boxes hold A LOT of people, many of whom are for now working from home (thus grabbing lunch locally, etc.). Georgetown I think was always more dependent on people visiting from other parts of the region as well as tourists (not that Georgetown doesn't have a local residential population as well, but it is much smaller given the built environment being mostly restricted to small rowhomes and apartments). Places like Noma, Navy Yard, 14th Street, and increasingly Waterfront are at a truly urban scale and have a built in residential base that has kept them busy-ish even without their office workers or tourist visitors.
I've never been to Navy Yard outside the context of a ball game (the amenities overall strike me as essentially the same as in every other built-up gentrified area in D.C./Arlington), so with no game crowds this year I guarantee you the businesses in that area have lost some significant revenue as well.
I've never been to Navy Yard outside the context of a ball game (the amenities overall strike me as essentially the same as in every other built-up gentrified area in D.C./Arlington), so with no game crowds this year I guarantee you the businesses in that area have lost some significant revenue as well.
Yea, though I think they're hit much harder from occupancy restrictions than the lack of ballgames. People going to the ballpark are likely going to eat at the ballpark itself and head straight to the Metro afterwards (not all, of course).
Forget the ballgame crowds, you have over eight thousand office workers not grabbing lunch around the area, doing work happy hours, etc. which is a much bigger hit to company bottom lines than the occasional baseball game for a fraction of the year. Navy Yard loses out on the office worker market every single weekday, not just would-be game days.
But like I said, all the large residential buildings in Navy Yard help shield local retail from the losses moreso than neighborhoods like Georgetown that almost exclusively relied on outsiders visiting.
Yea, though I think they're hit much harder from occupancy restrictions than the lack of ballgames. People going to the ballpark are likely going to eat at the ballpark itself and head straight to the Metro afterwards (not all, of course).
Forget the ballgame crowds, you have over eight thousand office workers not grabbing lunch around the area, doing work happy hours, etc. which is a much bigger hit to company bottom lines than the occasional baseball game for a fraction of the year. Navy Yard loses out on the office worker market every single weekday, not just would-be game days.
But like I said, all the large residential buildings in Navy Yard help shield local retail from the losses moreso than neighborhoods like Georgetown that almost exclusively relied on outsiders visiting.
I see what you're saying, but baseball is 81 home dates from April through September i.e. most of the time so far with Covid-19 restrictions. That's like 3 games a week for that time. Every time I've been to a game - and I go to a few every year - the bars in the vicinity were packed around game time. So I do believe they felt the absence of those crowds.
I concur that Georgetown would suffer more. For one, without GU students and staff on campus that's one big group of people gone that frequent local businesses. And I agree it's a much better known tourist spot than Navy Yard, so the absence of those crowds would be felt more acutely.
I see what you're saying, but baseball is 81 home dates from April through September i.e. most of the time so far with Covid-19 restrictions. That's like 3 games a week for that time. Every time I've been to a game - and I go to a few every year - the bars in the vicinity were packed around game time. So I do believe they felt the absence of those crowds.
I concur that Georgetown would suffer more. For one, without GU students and staff on campus that's one big group of people gone that frequent local businesses. And I agree it's a much better known tourist spot than Navy Yard, so the absence of those crowds would be felt more acutely.
Yea, that's fair. I guess, frequenting the neighborhood often on non-game days (I work in the neighborhood), the bars and restaurants have always seemed pretty busy (particularly Thurs-Sunday evenings if the weather is decent) pre-covid, so I figured a good portion of them were people living nearby or working in all the office buildings nearby. But maybe they are people just visiting from other parts of DC and the suburbs. I guess it kind of blows my mind that Navy Yard could be that much of a draw for anyone outside the neighborhood aside from baseball games. Nothing against it, it's a cool area, but I also remember it wasn't too many years ago the entire area seemed dead outside of games and the 9-5 office crowds. So, the transformation has been remarkable.
Yea, that's fair. I guess, frequenting the neighborhood often on non-game days (I work in the neighborhood), the bars and restaurants have always seemed pretty busy (particularly Thurs-Sunday evenings if the weather is decent) pre-covid, so I figured a good portion of them were people living nearby or working in all the office buildings nearby. But maybe they are people just visiting from other parts of DC and the suburbs. I guess it kind of blows my mind that Navy Yard could be that much of a draw for anyone outside the neighborhood aside from baseball games. Nothing against it, it's a cool area, but I also remember it wasn't too many years ago the entire area seemed dead outside of games and the 9-5 office crowds. So, the transformation has been remarkable.
I lived in the Navy Yard for 4.5 years. I never saw many of my neighbors out and about so I think most people who go out in the Navy Yard are workers during the week and then tourists (people from outside of DC, people in DC from other neighborhoods). When I went out after work during the week it was mostly people who work in the area that were out for happy hour. The baseball games and other events bring in a lot of people from DC who live in other areas as well as people from outside of DC (MD and VA). Navy Yard got far too busy and touristy for me. When I went there last week I saw how truly congested it has become with buildings. I moved there in 2012 when there were only a couple of apartments and a Potbelly. Now its just complete insanity.
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