Are we REALLY in a recession? (for sale, credit, house)

[tedanderson]

In spite of what we have been seeing on the news lately, is the economy is really as bad as they say it is? Or is it bad simply because we choose to believe what we are told?

They say that unemployment is up, however the rush hour traffic is just as heavy now as it has ever been. (sometimes I think that it has been increasingly heavier) But either way, when the highways are still congested and we are still standing shoulder-to-shoulder on the Metro, it is obvious that most people still have their jobs.

Then I think about what I see in the retail industry. I can't think of a time in the last 6 to 7 years when I have ever been able to get a decent parking spot at the mall. Some of the malls around here are so crowded that you might not be able to find a space period. It's still difficult to find a parking space at the Costco in Crystal City.. so if things are really that bad, people are obviously still shopping.

Even the restaurants still have a 45 minute waiting period if you go on an average weekend. As bad as times might be, people are still eating out. I just don't get it.

[typical guy]

The federal gov is borrowing 2 trillion this fiscal year. Its no wonder the region isnt feeling it that hard.

[terrence81]

Yeah I second that. THe DC area is in a bubble but go outside this area and people are feeling the effects of the recession.

[Washingtonian]

Yes we are. DC is in a bubble.

I moved 4 years ago to Charlotte and I'm moving back to DC in July. I was laid off 8 months ago. When I lived in DC, I was never out of a job that long. I work in Health Care Policy and have been contracting with a company in DC for months. I only had one interview in CLT back in August. I went through 5 interviews then they implemented a hiring freeze. If I didn't have the contracting opportunity in DC, I would be out of luck.

When I'm in DC people are shopping and out in about. Sometimes, I go to a mall here and no one is there. It's the scariest thing I have ever seen. Neighbors have literally packed up and disappeared during the night. My daughter will come home and tell me that this friend moved today. There are so many for sale signs in my neighborhood. Many of my neighbors are former/existing Wachovia and BOA employees. Some of them had been in banking for close to 20 years when they received the layoff notice. Hundreds and hundreds of contractors are being laid off by the banks weekly. I don't think they are counted against our unemployment which in now 10.5% in Charlotte.

Yes, the rest of the country is in a recession

[Legs1357]

Yes. Just because the super rich/rich are still spending like it's way cool does not mean that the rest of the country is not struggling. Try going to California too, unemployment is over 10% there as well.

[Bigbluelandrover]

Wash,
I lived in Charlotte back in 2003 and hubby and I had a terrible time trying to get jobs. A lot of it was due to the mass number of people moving there at a rate higher then hiring. I liked Charlotte but not enough to starve. This place has been amazing for us professionally. I told my husband the other day that the stores here are packed and you can't tell that things are bad. ----unless you really pay attention.

[ceejamon]

I moved to this area to escape the nasty recession that has hit my hometown in Louisiana. 2 factories closed, layoffs elsewhere, and small businesses are struggling because nobody has any money to spend. My father had to close the family business, which has been wildly successful since I was a child. I don't even want to think about what will happen when the GM plant closes there.

The DC area is a nicely insulated bubble - which is why I'm here.

[saganista]

The DC Bubble still exists, but it isn't what it used to be. For one thing, the share of the local economy comprised by government at all levels has been steadily declining as the IT sector and a complex private sector economy have grown up in the region. For another, an increased use of contractors by government over the past decade or so has given the public sector new flexibility to react to gloomy revenue forecasts by laying people off. On the plus side, the BRAC program actually works to the advantage of DC in the long run and the area will see more than the average share of stimulus money ultimately spent here.

The bottom line is that what began as a credit problem arising from marginally bad behavior in one sector of the financial industry was allowed to grow into a full-fledged problem for finance in general. Everyone is plugged into finance. The value of your house or 401-k was affected regardless of where the dollars that originally went into those had come from, and people tend to cut back when their wealth takes a significant hit. The average American household has seen its net worth decline by more than 20%. It might be a little less than that here, but the loss is still felt here and it is still affecting the economic behavior of many people who live here.

To answer the original question, yes, we are really in a recession, and it's a particularly nasty one that will be difficult and costly to contain and eventually reverse.

[LIS123]

Originally Posted by tedanderson

In spite of what we have been seeing on the news lately, is the economy is really as bad as they say it is? Or is it bad simply because we choose to believe what we are told?

They say that unemployment is up, however the rush hour traffic is just as heavy now as it has ever been. (sometimes I think that it has been increasingly heavier) But either way, when the highways are still congested and we are still standing shoulder-to-shoulder on the Metro, it is obvious that most people still have their jobs.

Then I think about what I see in the retail industry. I can't think of a time in the last 6 to 7 years when I have ever been able to get a decent parking spot at the mall. Some of the malls around here are so crowded that you might not be able to find a space period. It's still difficult to find a parking space at the Costco in Crystal City.. so if things are really that bad, people are obviously still shopping.

Even the restaurants still have a 45 minute waiting period if you go on an average weekend. As bad as times might be, people are still eating out. I just don't get it.

You'll definitely notice the recession a lot LESS here than in other places. Though the share of employment controlled by the Feds may have gone down in this area, it's still the major driver of the Economy (when related industries are taken into account). It's scary b/c IMO the Feds should be cutting head count and spending as they are beyond broke. I have a feeling that, eventually, this area is going to take a dramatic hit as the current spending levels are completely unsustainable. This may not happen for a long time, the way they borrow and print.

[MDbound2]

I'm so confused with DC. Since there are so many jobs and DC is so stable with the federal government, then why are there so many posts that DC is unfriendly? You would think that DC would be the friendliest place ever since the area is recession-proof, right?