At what point will gentrification in Washington DC end? (low income, houses)

[Redrum237]

I think gentrification will end when the population of DC is around maybe 35-40% black. There is no way that Anacostia, and big swaths of Northeast DC will ever become gentrified.

The rest of the city will continue to gentrify though. Isn't Columbia Heights the main area that's now in transition right now?

[rlchurch]

Originally Posted by Redrum237

I think gentrification will end when the population of DC is around maybe 35-40% black. There is no way that Anacostia, and big swaths of Northeast DC will ever become gentrified.

LOL already happening Sparky.

[14thandYou]

Originally Posted by rlchurch

LOL already happening Sparky.

Yeah, I think this conversation took place earlier in the thread. There may be some monied folks moving into parts of Ward 8 and whatnot, but many of those neighborhoods will never gentrify to the point of neighborhoods like Logan or Columbia Heights--at least not in our lifetimes. There are too many factors weighing against it.

It doesn't mean that you won't see some isolated pockets start to show up--for instance, by the Anacostia Metro, or a neighborhood like Trinidad. But large scale, I just don't see it.

[Smoke_Jaguar4]

There will come a tipping point in 10-15 years. Moderate and conservative gentrifiers will start to exert political influence. These new voters will tire of subsidizing poverty; new City Council members will vote to close public housing and move these residents to vouchers. This will clear the way to redevelop prime properties near metro stops (for example: Barry Farms, Syphax Gardens, Greenleaf). Furthermore it will dilute the political power of those residing in public housing. In time, there will be time limits on Section 8, income requirements and subsidies will freeze, the DCHD budget will be gutted to pay for tax cuts. These residents will need to pay their own way or vacate DC. Once we hit that point, gentrifying the rest of DC will take relatively little time.

[JD984]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

There will come a tipping point in 10-15 years. Moderate and conservative gentrifiers will start to exert political influence. These new voters will tire of subsidizing poverty; new City Council members will vote to close public housing and move these residents to vouchers. This will clear the way to redevelop prime properties near metro stops (for example: Barry Farms, Syphax Gardens, Greenleaf). Furthermore it will dilute the political power of those residing in public housing. In time, there will be time limits on Section 8, income requirements and subsidies will freeze, the DCHD budget will be gutted to pay for tax cuts. These residents will need to pay their own way or vacate DC. Once we hit that point, gentrifying the rest of DC will take relatively little time.

Maybe this is a well-informed prediction, but did anyone else feel like they were reading Revelations or some fundamentalist tract on the End of Days?

...."the public housing residents will receive vouchers and then the Rapture will occur and the final battle between the forces of Gentrification and Section 8 housing will begin..."

[rlchurch]

Originally Posted by 14thandYou

Yeah, I think this conversation took place earlier in the thread. There may be some monied folks moving into parts of Ward 8 and whatnot, but many of those neighborhoods will never gentrify to the point of neighborhoods like Logan or Columbia Heights--at least not in our lifetimes. There are too many factors weighing against it.

It doesn't mean that you won't see some isolated pockets start to show up--for instance, by the Anacostia Metro, or a neighborhood like Trinidad. But large scale, I just don't see it.

Nobody thought Shaw or 14th Street would ever be anything but ghettos either.

In my experience living in the city, neighborhoods with attractive architecture eventually gentrify. When you drive through Woodley Park looking at the townhouses and then drive through Pentworth or Trinidad and see comparable townhouses, that's an indication to me that we aren't done yet. The estimates are that DC grows from a residential population of 1/2 million to over 1 million during the work day. That's a lot of commutes that could be shortened.

[rlchurch]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

There will come a tipping point in 10-15 years. Moderate and conservative gentrifiers will start to exert political influence. These new voters will tire of subsidizing poverty; new City Council members will vote to close public housing and move these residents to vouchers. This will clear the way to redevelop prime properties near metro stops (for example: Barry Farms, Syphax Gardens, Greenleaf). Furthermore it will dilute the political power of those residing in public housing. In time, there will be time limits on Section 8, income requirements and subsidies will freeze, the DCHD budget will be gutted to pay for tax cuts. These residents will need to pay their own way or vacate DC. Once we hit that point, gentrifying the rest of DC will take relatively little time.

I couldn't disagree with your Republican approach to gentrification more. As a long time DC resident and part of the "gentrification" of a couple neighborhoods, I would oppose the approach you espouse and I think so would a majority of DC residents. If we wanted to live in Republicanville we would have already moved to Loudoun County.

[KStreetQB]

Originally Posted by rlchurch

Nobody thought Shaw or 14th Street would ever be anything but ghettos either.

In my experience living in the city, neighborhoods with attractive architecture eventually gentrify. When you drive through Woodley Park looking at the townhouses and then drive through Pentworth or Trinidad and see comparable townhouses, that's an indication to me that we aren't done yet. The estimates are that DC grows from a residential population of 1/2 million to over 1 million during the work day. That's a lot of commutes that could be shortened.

What he said.

[14thandYou]

Originally Posted by rlchurch

Nobody thought Shaw or 14th Street would ever be anything but ghettos either.

Actually, I would dispute that. 14th Street may have been awful for a time (parts of Shaw remain very much under-developed), but it was for a rather lengthy period one of the city's most vibrant commercial corridors. Its central location, nearby stock of upper-class Victorian residences waiting to be rehabbed, and readily available curb-front commercial space made it one of the ripest neighborhoods in all of the District for redevelopment. people began noticing that a couple of decades ago and began moving into the neighborhood. The same could be said of the H Street NE corridor today. Although the changes in these neighborhoods may seem abrupt and substantial, in reality they are merely cycling back to a previous incarnation of their existence.

With many southeast and northeast neighborhoods, the same factors do not apply. There has never been significant commercial activity in areas like Carver-Langston, Deanwood or Fort Dupont. The majority of outter southeast and northeast neighborhoods never been anything more than working class, residential neighborhoods. Their de-centralized location does not make them as convenient or attractive for individuals who are seeking to live closer to their place of employment.

Finally, there is the matter that the rate of growth and gentrification across DC during the past decade has been unprecedented. Arguing that an area such as Deanwood is going to be gentrified within the coming decades assumes a continued rate of growth and redevelopment that I question is sustainable.

It's easy to look around the development of DC and ponder what neighborhood is "next". But for many neighborhoods, there is no "next". Certainly, neighborhoods have cycles, and the demographics change over time, but it's rare when a neighborhood completely morphs into something it has never been.

[cpterp]

Republicans in DC hahahaha lmao . That's a good one. The only repubs you'll find in DC are the hanful in Congress. DC is getting even more liberal. Gay marriage will come to the District before the year is through.