At what point will gentrification in Washington DC end? (crime, townhouses)

[juniperbleu]

Originally Posted by bellyofthebeast

Sorry, what did you mean by available money? Also, since we don't know how long gentrification will last we don't know what kind of reach it will end up having, so running out of room isn't a factor I don't think.

I meant the money that is available in the market for spending on a house (or housing, since that would include all options). The amount of money out there isn't infinite.

As for space, I get what you're saying, but I think we're just looking at it at different angles. I'm thinking very vaguely about "sometime in the future". Whether that "sometime" will predate flying cars and teleportation, who knows. I was just trying to say that if people were to continuously move in, eventually they'd run out of space, so it has to stop somewhere. You'd also run into the problem where you urbanize so far out that it's no longer convenient to the city center. But, then again, teleportation would take care of that...

[juniperbleu]

^^ I should also probably add that I have no clue what I'm talking about. Just shooting off whatever's popping in my head for conversation's sake.

[NotMeAgain]

2012. That's when the Mayan calendar ends and we're all pretty much dead.

[Smoke_Jaguar4]

Originally Posted by juniperbleu

My point was more that you have a limited amount of space and available money. Gentrification can't necessarily continue forever because eventually you'll run out of room. How long it would take to do that, I'm not sure (I was thinking in terms of the next 10, 20, 50, 100+ years, not necessarily just in the next decade). There could also be a change in preferences over time. Just like the American Dream is shifting now, it'll probably shift again sometime in the future.

Gentrification will continue as long as you have upper and middle class people tired of spending 2 hours each day on the highway instead of with their families. Within the next 20 years all of DC north of the Anacostia will be gentrified; SE DC will be the last hold out. More importantly there will be a political shift in DC as moderate and conservative gentrifiers start to become the majorities in the Wards. This in turn will create pressure to undermine poverty housing supports - public housing, section 8, rent controls. Eventually even the 8th ward will be gentrified; it even has the nucleus of its change already there: the conservative military voters who live on Bolling AFB and Anacostia Naval Station will bring down the last vestiges of DC's poverty, corruption, and violence.

SJ4

[14thandYou]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

Within the next 20 years all of DC north of the Anacostia will be gentrified; SE DC will be the last hold out.

Whoo boy. 100 years, maybe. But drive out of the city along NY Avenue or Rhode Island and tell me that's going to be U Street in 20 years. I don't think so.

[Smoke_Jaguar4]

Originally Posted by 14thandYou

Whoo boy. 100 years, maybe. But drive out of the city along NY Avenue or Rhode Island and tell me that's going to be U Street in 20 years. I don't think so.

15 years ago people would have said the same about Penns Quarter, Chinatown or Cap Hill. In fact, once all the areas adjacent to the Metros get built out, the NY Ave-HWY50 & RI Ave-US1 strips will be the next transportation corridors remade as these will connect the metro core with gentrification in Brentwood, Mt Rainier, and Brookland areas.

[14thandYou]

Originally Posted by Smoke_Jaguar4

15 years ago people would have said the same about Penns Quarter, Chinatown or Cap Hill. In fact, once all the areas adjacent to the Metros get built out, the NY Ave-HWY50 & RI Ave-US1 strips will be the next transportation corridors remade as these will connect the metro core with gentrification in Brentwood, Mt Rainier, and Brookland areas.

First of all, Cap Hill hasn't gentrified--it's pretty much always been a fine neighborhood. Perhaps not as nice as it is now, but it was never dumpy.

Penn Quarter/Chinatown, it's fairly easy to see why it came around. First is close proximity to the central business district and the Mall, and the construction of the (then) MCI center. Even before it came around, the infrastructure was there.

Same can be said for Logan Circle and U Street: each had at one time been a thriving commercial corridor, so it's not difficult to envision each turning around.

But when you start talking about areas like Brentwood, Trinidad, Mt. Rainier, Benning Rd., Ivy City etc. gentrifying, you're talking about neighborhoods that aren't in close proximity to much of anything, have been troubled for years (or staunchly middle class) and have little to no history of commercial development. Neighborhoods like that don't just gentrify, and they certainly don't do it over the span of just a few years. Even places like Logan and Penn Quarter took decades to turn around, and they had a lot more going for them.

Additionally, it's worth noting that the pace of development in the District over the last 15 years has been unprecedented. It essentially took DC from the ranks of sleepy, southern town and placed it squarely in the realm of large, cosmopolitan city. It's highly unlikely that such a pace is sustainable over the long term, particularly when it comes to neighborhoods such as what you reference.

So, the chances of "all neighborhoods north (and west) of the Anacostia gentrifying" within the next 20 years are slim-to-none. You're not placing nearly enough emphasis on how much development and demographic change would have to occur for those neighborhoods to "gentrify", and you're placing far too much hope on a continuation of the breakneck development pace that we've witnessed over the last couple of decades.

[bellyofthebeast]

Originally Posted by juniperbleu

I meant the money that is available in the market for spending on a house (or housing, since that would include all options). The amount of money out there isn't infinite.

As for space, I get what you're saying, but I think we're just looking at it at different angles. I'm thinking very vaguely about "sometime in the future". Whether that "sometime" will predate flying cars and teleportation, who knows. I was just trying to say that if people were to continuously move in, eventually they'd run out of space, so it has to stop somewhere. You'd also run into the problem where you urbanize so far out that it's no longer convenient to the city center. But, then again, teleportation would take care of that...

I think that it has more in terms of demand on different levels of wealth. There will eventually run out of people willing to pay 1500 to live somewhere, but there will still be people willing to pay 900 to live there and the area will continue to gentrify, albeit on a much smaller scale. I'm talking about crazy amounts of time in the future I guess.

I'm pretty ardently down for teleportation, although I'd hate to bypass hover cars altogether.

[bellyofthebeast]

Originally Posted by juniperbleu

^^ I should also probably add that I have no clue what I'm talking about. Just shooting off whatever's popping in my head for conversation's sake.

Yeah, I try as hard as possible to know what I'm talking about as much as possible but in the end its really just based on guesswork. Its just so interesting! I can't not think of all the crazy stuff that could happen.

[bellyofthebeast]

Originally Posted by 14thandYou

First of all, Cap Hill hasn't gentrified--it's pretty much always been a fine neighborhood. Perhaps not as nice as it is now, but it was never dumpy.

Penn Quarter/Chinatown, it's fairly easy to see why it came around. First is close proximity to the central business district and the Mall, and the construction of the (then) MCI center. Even before it came around, the infrastructure was there.

Same can be said for Logan Circle and U Street: each had at one time been a thriving commercial corridor, so it's not difficult to envision each turning around.

But when you start talking about areas like Brentwood, Trinidad, Mt. Rainier, Benning Rd., Ivy City etc. gentrifying, you're talking about neighborhoods that aren't in close proximity to much of anything, have been troubled for years (or staunchly middle class) and have little to no history of commercial development. Neighborhoods like that don't just gentrify, and they certainly don't do it over the span of just a few years. Even places like Logan and Penn Quarter took decades to turn around, and they had a lot more going for them.

Additionally, it's worth noting that the pace of development in the District over the last 15 years has been unprecedented. It essentially took DC from the ranks of sleepy, southern town and placed it squarely in the realm of large, cosmopolitan city. It's highly unlikely that such a pace is sustainable over the long term, particularly when it comes to neighborhoods such as what you reference.

So, the chances of "all neighborhoods north (and west) of the Anacostia gentrifying" within the next 20 years are slim-to-none. You're not placing nearly enough emphasis on how much development and demographic change would have to occur for those neighborhoods to "gentrify", and you're placing far too much hope on a continuation of the breakneck development pace that we've witnessed over the last couple of decades.

While I agree that those far flung neighborhoods will take a much longer time to gentrify than other areas have, I feel like gentrification will continue to happen as long as there is less DC proper housing stock than there is demand. Sure, people want to live in a nice, classy townhouse in a hip neighborhood, but they also want a shorter commute, more than anything. I've heard about new development and gentrification in all of those neighborhoods listed, save Mt. Ranier.

I didn't think I'd see gentrification in Eckington, although it is very pretty it is not in the best location and it doesn't have a ton of local amenities. The fact that gentrification is happening there makes me believe that it can happen pretty much anywhere.

I don't know if anyone else follows real estate projects but there are quite a few people who want to condo-ize the area around the Rhode Island Ave station. DCmud - The Urban Real Estate Digest of Washington DC rules